Two Takes On Fed Chair's Reappointment

Senate party leaders Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) offered two different reactions to President Obama's reappointment today of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Reid:

"Chairman Bernanke has played an important role in our nation's economic recovery efforts. His expertise and leadership as Federal Reserve Chairman have been crucial as our nation has endured this financial crisis. His re-nomination will bring continuity to the Federal Reserve that will send the right signal to the marketplace. I support President Obama's decision to re-nominate Chairman Bernanke and expect the Senate to re-confirm him."

McConnell:

"It is my hope that today's decision to reappoint Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke allows this administration to focus on the serious economic troubles that face our country. As we were reminded again today, and as Chairman Bernanke has testified recently, America's debt is ballooning out of control and without immediate efforts to correct it over the long-term, our economy risks having neither financial stability nor durable economic growth. In addition, Chairman Bernanke's confirmation hearing will be an opportunity for the Chairman to provide greater transparency on the actions the Fed has taken, and greater insight into the cumulative impact the administration's trillions in new spending, borrowing, and debt will have on the American taxpayer."


Obama in New Deeds Radio Ad

President Obama trekked across the Potomac River a couple weeks ago to rally Virginia Democrats for their gubernatorial nominee, Creigh Deeds. Today, the Deeds campaign is launching a radio ad that includes excerpts from Obama's speech that day.

"Hello, Virginia! Are you fired up? Are you ready to go? ... now you've got the chance to keep moving forward by electing somebody who is cut from the same cloth, somebody who has that same vision for the commonwealth -- Creigh Deeds. ... This is a man who spent his life working to do right by his family, and the last two decades working to do right by the people of Virginia. As a state senator, he has worked tirelessly to advance this commonwealth. ... He wrote Megan's Law, advocated for the Amber Alert program to protect our children."

The ad will air in Hampton Roads, Richmond and Roanoke -- where a large portion of the African Americans in Virginia reside. You can listen to "Fired Up" here.

Deeds currently trails Republican Bob McDonnell by 12 points in the RCP Average. He released his first TV ad of the general election campaign on Friday, coinciding with a Northern Virginia campaign address that he hopes will help frame the debate going forward.


Gallup: 52% Job Approval for Obama

As President Obama reappoints Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve this morning, we'll continue to look at how the nation views the 44th president. Gallup released a report last night on his weekly approval ratings -- which have declined for the past two-plus months.

In early June, Obama enjoyed a 62% approval rating in the Gallup Weekly report -- double his disapproval rating. The report released last night found him down to 52%/41%.

8-24-09_gallup obama weekly approval.jpg

The Gallup weekly numbers match the RCP Average Job Approval numbers.


NY Poll: Cuomo Popularity Sky High

A new Siena College poll finds 68% of New York voters would prefer someone else if Gov. David Paterson (D) decides to run for governor next year. This number has moved little since March, as his 32% favorability rating.

Matched up in a Democratic primary with Atty. Gen. Andrew Cuomo, Paterson trails by 42 points -- no change from last month. For the GOP primary, Rudy Giuliani continues to dominate the field against former Rep. Rick Lazio and Erie County Executive Chris Collins.

Cuomo leads Giuliani by 13 points -- an 8-point margin increase from last month when Cuomo led 49%-44%. Cuomo's favorability rating hit the 70% mark for the second time in three months.

Dem Primary
Paterson 23 - Cuomo 65 - Und 12

GOP Primary
Giuliani 73 - Lazio 6 - Collins 8

General Election
Paterson 33 - Giuliani 59 - Und 11
Paterson 38 - Lazio 37 - Und 25
Cuomo 53 - Giuliani 40 - Und 7
Cuomo 66 - Lazio 16 - Und 18

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), appointed to Hillary Clinton's former seat, received mixed numbers in the poll, as more than half of voters still don't know much about her. Just 24% said they would definitely vote to elect her, while 35% said they would prefer someone else and 41% were unsure. In general election matchups, Gillibrand leads Rep. Peter King (R) 46%-24% and trails former governor George Pataki (R) 39%-42%.

The survey also asked registered voters to compare the New York state politicians of today versus those of 40 to 50 years ago. And, well, you can see for yourself how today's politicians did.

8-24-09_NYS Politicians Poll.jpg


Obama Hits the Links

While the president enjoys some (what must be) much-needed time off in Martha's Vineyard, we'll take a look at where he stands in the eyes of the nation -- more than 200 days into his administration.

Here is the RCP Average Presidential Job Approval chart:

8-24-09_Obama_Job_Approval_Chart.jpg

Obama's approval rating has been on a mostly steady, downward decline since May 10, and it's been sub-60% since June 24.


MA Gov Poll: Patrick Losing Ground

Another poll gives Massachusetts Democrats reason for concern about the gubernatorial race next year. A Rasmussen survey pitting Gov. Deval Patrick (D) losing ground in head-to-head matchups with potential Republican opponents.

General Election Matchups
Mihos 40 (-1 from 6/24)
Patrick 35 (-5)
Other 11 (+1)
Not Sure 15 (+6)

Patrick 40 (-1)
Baker 39 (+3)
Other 7 (-5)
Not Sure 15 (+4)

Of course, there is still a potential third-party candidacy from former Democrat and current state Treasurer Tim Cahill. His entry would certainly shake up these numbers.

Fav/Unfav Ratings
Patrick 40 / 56
Mihos 50 / 30
Baker 40 / 30

Patrick has a job approval rating of 39 percent, while 60 percent disapprove. President Obama's approval rating is nearly the reverse at this point: 59 percent approve, 41 percent disapprove.

Rasmussen also asked voters whether Patrick should have the right, as Sen. Ted Kennedy has requested, to appoint an interim replacement in the Senate should a vacancy occur. Only 52 percent said yes, while 40 percent said no. Sixty-six percent still support having a special election to permanently fill any vacancy, as opposed to 27 percent who think the governor should fill it.

The IVR survey of 500 likely Massachusetts voters was conducted on August 20, and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.


Parties Bash Heads on Health Care

The Republican and Democratic national committees have engaged in a war of words this morning, beginning with RNC Chairman Michael Steele's op-ed in the Washington Post:

The Democrats' plan will hurt American families, small businesses and health-care providers by raising care costs, increasing the deficit, and not allowing patients to keep a doctor or insurance plan of their choice. Furthermore, under the Democrats' plan, senior citizens will pay a steeper price and will have their treatment options reduced or rationed.
...
Barack Obama campaigned on "post-partisanship." As president, however, Obama has shown that he is beholden to his party's left-wing ideologues. It's not too late for him to honor his pledges for bipartisan health-care reform. Reversing course and joining Republicans in support of health care for our nation's senior citizens is a good place to start.

The DNC answered with a statement from spokesman Brad Woodhouse, who calls Steele's op-ed disengenuous and the latest in a line of scare tactics:

It should be no surprise that the Republican Party - which whipped many Americans into a frenzy at town hall meetings on health care this month by spreading one lie about reform after another - has now taken to scaring seniors who have nothing to fear and much to gain from reform. But what's really incredible is that this feigned interest in Medicare and the plight of seniors is coming from the Republican Party - the very Party which opposed Social Security and only four years ago tried to dismantle it - and the very Republican Party which opposed the creation of Medicare to begin with. Republicans are fighting against reform for one reason - to 'break' President Obama and gain political advantage. As a result, when it comes to their arguments against reform - for Republicans it's any port in a storm.


Everybody Hates Harry

Okay, that's quite the exaggeration, but the Senate Majority Leader trails Danny Tarkanian, 49%-38% and Sue Lowden 45%-40%. If you're scratching your head wondering who they are, join the crowd. I looked them up and Sue Lowden is the state GOP chair, and Danny Tarkanian is the son of the legendary coach, and a two-time failed political candidate (in fairness, he's a Rhodes Scholar, so he's obviously got something going on upstairs).

If you're scratching your head wondering how a politician in this much trouble can't attract even a third-tier challenger, you have to understand that the leading Nevada Republican challengers for Reid either lost re-election, are under indictment, have an approval rating in the teens, or announced they won't run because they can't count on the support of the state's senior senator, who had his parents pay off his mistress.

That last sentence may be the most depressing thing I've ever written. It really is amazing our Republic has endured 220 years.


Culver Leads Most Opponents, Still Possibly In Trouble

Hill Research Consultants, a Republican polling outfit, polled the Iowa governor's race and concluded that incumbent Governor Chet Culver (who was elected by a ten point margin in 2006) leads almost all his opponents, save former GOP Governor Terry Branstad. The results are as follows (actual declared opponents are bolded):

Against former Governor Terry Branstad, loses 52%-37%;
Against '02 Candidate Bob Vander Platts, wins 44%-35%;
Against unsuccessful '96 congressional candidate Mike Mahaffey, wins 43%-29%;
Against State Representative Christopher Rants, wins 45%-30%;
Against State Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley, wins 45%-28%;
Against State Rep and pastor Rod Roberts, wins 46%-25%;
Against businessman Christian Fong, wins 46%-25%.

Obviously it is good news that Culver is winning against all his declared candidates, even in polls conducted by Republican polling companies. That said, he has to be a little worried that he's below 50% against some fairly unknown candidates, and gets stomped by the one Republican with name recognition. We'll have to see how this develops, but Culver clearly has some vulnerabilities.


Poll: Montana Dems Want Public Option

As chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Montana Sen. Max Baucus (D) has held up movement on a health care reform bill, and a new poll in Montana finds a majority of Democrats disapproving of his actions.

A Daily Kos poll (Aug. 17-19, 600 LV, MoE +/- 4%), conducted by Research 2000, found more Republicans (49%) than Democrats (34%) approving of his actions on health care. Baucus hasn't said whether he'll push for a public option to be included in the Senate bill, though 78% of Montana Democrats are in favor of it. Overall, 47% of Montanans favor a public option and 43% oppose it.

If Baucus comes out against a public option, 36% of Democrats said they would be less likely to vote for him; 12% would be more likely and 52% said it would have no effect. For Republicans, 23% said they'd be more likely to vote for him if he opposed it, with 69% saying it would have no effect.

The liberal DailyKos queried respondents on how they'd vote if Baucus joined Republicans to help filibuster a health care bill that included a public option (44% of Democrats would be less likely to vote for him); also noted was that he'd received nearly $4 million in campaign donations from the health care industry (73% of Democrats said it hurt his judgement when voting on a health care bill).

Of course, the 67-year-old Baucus isn't up for re-election for another five years. In 2008, he was re-elected with 73% of the vote. Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) was re-elected with 65%, and Rep. Denny Rehberg (R), the state's lone congressman, was re-elected to a fifth term with 64%.

John McCain carried the state by 3 points last year, and President Obama now has a negative favorability rating -- 44% view him favorably and 52% unfavorably.



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