The Republican National Committee is launching radio ads in the districts of the four Blue Dog Democrats who helped the House Energy and Commerce Committee approve the health care reform bill.

The four targeted Democrats are Reps. Bart Gordon (TN-06), Zack Space (OH-18), Baron Hill (IN-09) and Mike Ross (AR-04). Click on the districts to hear the ads.

The district-specific ads say the Democrat "folded like a lawn chair" and say about the health care bill: "It's big government. It's big money. And it'll hit you where it hurts." Listeners are asked to call their Member of Congress and "tell him to stop voting with Nancy Pelosi."

Democrats are running ads in GOP districts blaming Republicans for doing just the opposite -- working to halt the health care reform bill. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting more than two dozen House Republicans with radio ads, automated calls and other tactics.

There's been some back-and-forth in the blogosphere about a Senate seat that Republicans picked up in Delaware.  Republicans picked up a seat that the Democrats had held for forty years.  They did so by a thirty-point margin, and they did so against a political dynasty candidate who outraised and outspent the Republican.

On the other hand, as Dave at the Hedgehog Report demonstrates, the district did go for McCain/Palin by nine points, indicating that it isn't as blue as initial reports would indicate.  He also points out that McCain did so against a ticket with Joe Biden in the number two slot, which presumably strengthened the Democrats' total.

But this last argument illustrates the Democrats' main problem for 2010.  An awful lot of the Democratic members of Congress  owe their seats to the strong African American and student turnout engendered by the Obama campaign.  Just off the top of my head, I can come up with thirteen.  When the impetus for that turnout is removed, what is going to be left?

Indeed, in the Delaware race, there's a powerful positive correlation with the dropoff in Democratic percentage from 2008 to 2009 and the Democratic ticket's performance in 2008 -- the r-square is about .75.  If you don't happen to speak geek, that means that the better Obama performed in a district, the steeper the Democrats' dropoff from 2008 to 2009 was.  While you can't prove causation with regression, this finding is certainly consistent with a conclusion that the massive upsurge in Democratic enthusiasm we saw in 2006 and 2008 has abated.  We've seen similar results in Virginia, which makes for some potentially ominous news for Democrats.

A rather surprising finding from the newly released CNN poll. Question three on the national survey of 1,136 adults (which includes an oversample of African-Americans) asks, "Do you consider the first six months of the Obama administration to be a success or a failure?"

Thirty-seven percent (37%) said they believe the Obama administration is a "failure," while 51% consider it a "success" and 11% say it's still "too soon to tell."

An identical question was asked of the Bush administration in an August 2001 CNN/Gallup/USA Today survey.  At the time, 56% said the Bush administration was a "success" while only 32% considered it a "failure." (Link)

Due largely to the low marks he received for his handling of the economy and health care, and his drop in support among independents, a new Quinnipiac survey finds President Obama's approval rating down to 50% -- his lowest since becoming president (July 27- Aug. 3, 2409 RV, MoE +/- 2%).

Obama's approval rating includes 85% of Democrats and 16% of Republicans, while independents are split 45%-45%. He now has a 53.6% RCP Average Job Approval Rating.

At the beginning of July, Obama's approval rating was 57% with a 33% disapproval rating. His approval not only dropped 7 points, but his disapproval rating increased 9 points.

Still, voters trust Obama more than congressional Republicans to fix the economy (by 11 points) and health care (by 9 points), and they disapprove of the way GOPers on Capitol Hill are doing their job by a 59%-29% margin.

"The good news for President Barack Obama is that American voters still see him as better able to handle the economy and health care than Republicans in Congress. The bad news is his margins are shrinking," said Quinnipiac assistant director Peter A. Brown.

Just 29% approve of the job Republicans are doing in Congress (including 48% of Republicans), Democrats aren't faring much better at 35% approval -- down 3 points from last month and 8 points from June. The GOP's rating has stayed about the same every month since March.

Just landed in my inbox:

Thomas --

This is the moment our movement was built for.

For one month, the fight for health insurance reform leaves the backrooms of Washington, D.C., and returns to communities across America. Throughout August, members of Congress are back home, where the hands they shake and the voices they hear will not belong to lobbyists, but to people like you.

Home is where we're strongest. We didn't win last year's election together at a committee hearing in D.C. We won it on the doorsteps and the phone lines, at the softball games and the town meetings, and in every part of this great country where people gather to talk about what matters most. And if you're willing to step up once again, that's exactly where we're going to win this historic campaign for the guaranteed, affordable health insurance that every American deserves.

There are those who profit from the status quo, or see this debate as a political game, and they will stop at nothing to block reform. They are filling the airwaves and the internet with outrageous falsehoods to scare people into opposing change. And some people, not surprisingly, are getting pretty nervous. So we've got to get out there, fight lies with truth, and set the record straight.

That's why Organizing for America is putting together thousands of events this month where you can reach out to neighbors, show your support, and make certain your members of Congress know that you're counting on them to act.

But these canvasses, town halls, and gatherings only make a difference if you turn up to knock on doors, share your views, and show your support. So here's what I need from you:

Can you commit to join at least one event in your community this month?

In politics, there's a rule that says when you ask people to get involved, always tell them it'll be easy. Well, let's be honest here: Passing comprehensive health insurance reform will not be easy. Every President since Harry Truman has talked about it, and the most powerful and experienced lobbyists in Washington stand in the way.

But every day we don't act, Americans watch their premiums rise three times faster than wages, small businesses and families are pushed towards bankruptcy, and 14,000 people lose their coverage entirely. The cost of inaction is simply too much for the people of this nation to bear.

So yes, fixing this crisis will not be easy. Our opponents will attack us every day for daring to try. It will require time, and hard work, and there will be days when we don't know if we have anything more to give. But there comes a moment when we all have to choose between doing what's easy, and doing what's right.

This is one of those times. And moments like this are what this movement was built for. So, are you ready?

Please commit now to taking at least one action in your community this month to build support for health insurance reform:

http://my.barackobama.com/CommitAugust

Let's seize this moment and win this historic victory for our economy, our health and our families.

Thank you,

President Barack Obama

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has entered the second phase in its "Health Care ER" advertising offensive, today launching automated calls in 10 GOP districts. The DCCC is targeting "Republicans who are trying to block health insurance reform for America's families," according to a press release.

"This August, we are holding Republicans accountable," said DCCC executive director Jon Vogel.

The phone calls are heading to the following districts: Brian Bilbray (CA-50), Ken Calvert (CA-44), David Dreier (CA-26), Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25), Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-09), Mike McCaul (TX-10), Frank Wolf (VA-10), Bill Young (FL-10), Judy Biggert (IL-13), Mary Bono Mack (CA-45), and Pete Sessions (TX-32).

Radio ads began airing Monday in another eight districts. In all, the ad offensive will reach the districts of more than two dozen Republican members of Congress.

Here is the script of an automated call going out to Sessions's Texas district:

I have an important message about your health care. Insurance companies are posting record profits while health bills skyrocket. Now they are lining up to stop health care reforms and protect profits. Congressman Pete Sessions took almost four hundred thousand dollars from the insurance industry and now he's trying to block reform… like reducing costs by forcing insurance companies to compete and preventing them from denying you coverage. Call Congressman Sessions today. Ask him to stop standing up for insurance companies and start standing up for us.

Obama in Elkhart: "I promise you we will pass health care reform by the end of this year."

This seems a bit stronger than his past comments about "not betting against" reform.  This doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room for taking one of the two paths available: using reconciliation to get most of what he and the Democrats want or settling for "half a loaf" to get some Republican support.

Considering how many he's done in New Hampshire alone, it's only appropriate that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) weighs in on town hall meetings today.

From his Twitter feed:

Town hall meetings are an American tradition - we should allow everyone to express their views without disruption - even if we disagree!

This and more on RCP's Twitter page.

Jon Ralston promised he wouldn't let the Ensign matter drop, and he's good to his word with another scathing column on the subject this morning.

An exceedingly funny take down of Milbank and Cillizza's Mouthpiece Theatre gig:

Meanwhile, Milbank and Cillizza have posted a response to their initial video that generated the controversy.