Republicans have seen better polls of late than they are used to, and have scored some successes in special elections. That's led to some talk of a Republican wave in 2010.

That theory was dealt something of a setback last night, at least in Kentucky. Republicans narrowly lost a state house seat that had been carried by John McCain with about 57% of the vote and by George W. Bush with 56% of the vote. The GOP narrowly won the seat in 2006 with 53% of the vote.

The district has a huge Democratic registration edge, and it went for W and McCain by less than they were carrying the state as a whole (although their performances were better than their overall national performance). And you can't read too much into a single local election -- remember that Republicans almost won a heavily Democratic congressional district in Massachusetts in 2007. But as we chart the datapoints leading to significant Republicans gains in 2010, we have to bear in mind the data that point the opposite direction.

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