The New York Post reports that former United States Attorney Kevin O'Connor is being pushed to run for governor of the Nutmeg State.  O'Connor has deep political ties in New England -- he's a partner in Rudy Giuliani's law firm and the son-in-law of George Pataki's political mentor. There are rumors that Jodi Rell won't be running for re-election in 2010.  If true, it would make for an extremely competitive race, regardless of whom the Democrats nominate (within reason, of course).

Fun fact for the day:  Democrats have lost five of the last five gubernatorial races in Connecticut, four of the last five (and five of the last six) races in Rhode Island, four of the last five in Massachusetts, five of the last ten in Vermont, and three of the last five in Maine.  In New Hampshire -- easily the most Republican of the New England states -- Democrats have performed as well as they have in Vermont (arguably the most Democratic).  It just goes to show that gubernatorial races tend to be the least partisan of all the races watched (which is one reason I think its so funny that so much attention is going to be paid to the Virginia and New Jersey races this fall).

State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) announced yesterday that he raised $3.4 million in one month, from May 28 to June 30 -- the most recent fundraising period in the Virginia gubernatorial race. Deeds now has $2.7 million cash on hand.

"The key to winning this campaign will be to show who has the best plan to keep Virginia moving forward, and this month has shown that we are well on our way to having the financial resources to do that," Deeds said in a released statement.

Deeds's Republican opponent, former Attorney General Bob McDonnell, announced today that he raised $1.8 million during the same time span and now has $4.92 million cash on hand.

"Our campaign enters the final four months of the race in a strong financial position to carry our positive message of new jobs and more opportunities to every region of the state," said McDonnell campaign manager Phil Cox. "Despite the fact that we were on television for over half of the period, we maintain a nearly 2 to 1 cash on hand advantage over our opponent."

Deeds defeated Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran in the June 9 Democratic primary. McDonnell was unopposed for the GOP nomination, though he began advertising statewide in May.

Despite new questions about financial dealings with the family of the woman with whom he admitted having an affair, Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) told the Las Vegas Sun that he not only won't resign, but plans to run for re-election in 2012.

When asked Monday whether he had any thoughts about stepping down, Ensign said his supporters are sending one message: “They say, ‘Don't.' ”

“I fully plan on running for reelection,” Ensign said late Monday evening. “I'm going to work to earn their respect back.”

The two-term Republican senator was back on offense Monday, saying his support is coming from his fellow senators as well as those “on both sides” of Senate leadership.

Ensign said his supporters are telling him, “Keep your head up. This thing will pass.”

Ensign has said that tens of thousands paid by his father to the Hampton family were gifts. Ethics complaints have already been filed, and some are seeking a criminal investigation.

This fall, New Jersey will have a statewide elected official other than the governor on the ballot for the first time in recent history (perhaps ever -- could an enterprising New Jersey politico e-mail me to confirm?).  After a string of gubernatorial scandals and resignations (New Jersey has technically had eight governors and acting governors in the last eight years), the state decided that there should be an elected lieutenant governor, who would take over for the governor in case of resignations, etc.

Anyway, this is producing a little bit more attention than your average lieutenant governor appointment, given that it is the first pick ever.  Which is why I find it difficult to believe that the Asbury Park Press is correct in reporting that New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine is set to choose the winner of Season 4 of the Apprentice, Randall Pinkett, to be his running mate.

Now in a vacuum,  it isn't as crazy as it sounds.  Anyone who watched Season 4 knows that Randall is a sharp guy, very quick on his feet, and an incredibly gifted speaker.  He had one of the better reality t.v. show lines: When Trump asked why his co-finalist should not also be picked as an apprentice he responded that the name of the show was "Apprentice," not "Apprenti."  He's a Rutgers graduate and a Rhodes scholar.  And he's African-American, which is a key voter demographic for Democrats in New Jersey.

But of course, politics doesn't operate in a vacuum, and Corzine's campaign is in deep, deep trouble to start with.  A campaign in better shape could probably risk naming a talented political newcomer who happens to be a reality t.v. star as its running mate.  But I can't imagine Corzine getting good press out of this, mostly because his standing in the eyes of the public and press is so low right now.  But the Corzine camp really isn't in a position to take such gambles, unless it thinks it needs a hail mary pass at this point.  I'm thinking feint.

Days before President Obama comes to his aid, a reminder of the challenge confronting New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D). A Quinnipiac poll out this morning shows Chris Christie (R) maintaining a double-digit edge in head-to-head matchup with the incumbent.

General Election Matchup
Christie 53 (+3)
Corzine 41 (+1)
Undecided 6 (-3)

Christie has stronger support among Republicans (89/7) than Corzine does among Democrats (76/19), which is one reason why Obama's visit is so important. Christie, the former U.S. Attorney, also holds a whopping 36 point lead among independent voters, 64-28.

But this won't be a two-person race. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett has qualified for the state's matching funds program, meaning he gets $2 more to spend for every $1 he raises on his own. In a three way race, Christie's lead shrinks somewhat. Daggett served as an EPA administrator in the administration of Ronald Reagan, and as New Jersey's top environmental official under Gov. Tom Kean (R).

General Election Matchup (Three-Way Race)
Christie 47
Corzine 38
Daggett 8
Undecided 8

An overwhelming majority -- 92 percent -- of voters haven't heard enough of Daggett, but as a matching funds recipient he will be required to participate in any debates that are held.

Christie's favorability rating (39/20) continues to rise with his negatives, as Corzine has gone up on the air attacking contracts he bid as the U.S. Attorney. Corzine's negatives are up five points as well, now at 34/48. The governor's approval rating also continues to dip -- only a third of voters approve.

Job Approval Rating
Corzine 33 / 60 (from 36/56 in June)
Obama 60 / 34 (from 68 / 25)
Lautenberg 43 / 40
Menendez 39 / 37

Though Obama's approval has dropped 8 points as well, it's nearly the exact opposite of Corzine's, one reason why the Democrat is so eager for the Thursday visit. But the poll suggests voters aren't buying Corzine's criticism of Christie that he's too close to George Bush -- 77 percent say he should focus on state issues instead.

An only in New Jersey question: who would you rather stroll on the Boardwalk with? Forty percent said Christie, with 38 percent saying Corzine.

In the RCP average of New Jersey polling, Christie's lead is 10.4 points.

The telephone survey of 1,514 likely voters was conducted July 8-12, and has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) ensures a spot in another news cycle with an op-ed in Tuesday's Washington Post, where she writes about the Democrats' energy bill. She tackles policy, yes, but not without another shot at the media culture.

After listing several challenges to the economy, she adds:

Unfortunately, many in the national media would rather focus on the personality-driven political gossip of the day than on the gravity of these challenges. So, at risk of disappointing the chattering class, let me make clear what is foremost on my mind and where my focus will be:

I am deeply concerned about President Obama's cap-and-trade energy plan, and I believe it is an enormous threat to our economy. It would undermine our recovery over the short term and would inflict permanent damage.

She's playing to what she sees is her key strength on national policy here.

American prosperity has always been driven by the steady supply of abundant, affordable energy. Particularly in Alaska, we understand the inherent link between energy and prosperity, energy and opportunity, and energy and security. Consequently, many of us in this huge, energy-rich state recognize that the president's cap-and-trade energy tax would adversely affect every aspect of the U.S. economy.

You can read the rest here.

Dueling polls from the Republican Governor's Association and New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine's campaign all point in the same direction: Corzine is in trouble.  Basswood Research, polling for the RGA, found Corzine trailing his Republican opponent, former United States Attorney Chris Christie, by 48 percent to 33 percent.  The Corzine camp responded with a poll of its own, showing Christie ahead by 42%-38%.

Campaigns and partisan pollsters usually put forth their best case result from their internal tracking polls.  If the best Corzine can come up with is a poll showing him getting 38% of the vote, three-and-a-half months before an election, he's in even deeper trouble than I thought.

Still, Christie is not getting to 50%, which is a real problem for a Republican in New Jersey.  There's a pretty good chance that the undecideds will ultimately break against him.

Before people e-mail me about the capital of New Jersey being Trenton, the New Jersey Governor's mansion is in Princeton.

New CBS News poll shows President Obama's job approval rating slipping six points in the past month to 57%, with 32% disapproving.  Overall, Obama's approval rating in the RCP Average is at an almost identical 57.4%, with a slightly higher 36.2% disapproving.

Other notables: only 48% approve of Obama's handling of the economy (44% disapprove), and 52% say the President is trying to accomplish "too much."

Marc Ambinder:

My favorite health care reporters have gone into "concerned" mode again about the fate of health care reform legislation.

Why would ostensibly objective journalists be in "'concerned' mode" about the fate of health care legislation? Don't answer that.

IL GOP Chair Andy McKenna just released the following statement:

“As Party Chairman my goal has been to build Party unity. Mark Kirk and I met last evening as part of an ongoing discussion about the U. S. Senate race. I reassured Mark that if he chooses to be a candidate, I will not oppose him.”

Despite the initial resistance to Kirk among Illiois Republicans - primarily because of his recent vote in favor of Waxman-Markey cap and trade - this reopens the door for him to enter the race, and clears away his most formidable primary challenger.