North Carolina Republican Senator Richard Burr continues to languish in the 40 percent range, according to PPP (D).  Burr leads attorney Cal Cunningham 40%-31%, and attorney Kenneth Lewis 42%-31%.   His approval ratings are 36% positive to 29% negative, which is an awful lot of undecideds for a sitting Senator.  Amazingly, Democrats have been unable to find a politician to take on Burr.

Graphic artist John Hendrix was not tested.

According to Research 2000's polling, conducted for the DailyKos website, the race to replace retiring Senator Judd Gregg is tight no matter who has the Republican nomination.  If former Congressman Charlie Bass is the Republican, he trails Second District Congressman Paul Hodes by five points, 42%-37%.  If Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is the nominee, she leads Hodes by a point, 39%-38%.

Democrats seem convinced that they can make hay out of Ayotte's decision to resign her seat to run, by comparing her to Sarah Palin and for breaking a pledge to serve her full term.  But those types of pledges are made and broken all the time, and voters rarely hold that against the candidate.  Ultimately, I think the stronger argument is that she is too conservative for the state, and I think that's the argument that we'll hear a lot more of as we get into 2010.

If you're a big fan of twitter, the new RCP Twitter page is going to feel like heaven. It's a mega-feed of all the latest political tweets. Check it out.

Readers of the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post woke up this morning to see front page stories on the news that the Congressional Budget Office produced a rather damning report on the Democrats' health care plan. Here's how the two papers treated the story:

Washington Post: Lawmakers Warned About Health Costs

Wall Street Journal: Budget Blow for Health Plan

Readers of the New York Times, however, wouldn't have any clue about the CBO report by looking at the paper's front page:

The CBO report is mentioned today's New York Times - but it's buried inside the paper in the second paragraph of a story running under the headline, "House Committee Approves Health Care Bill."

It's says quite a bit that the editors at the two other largest and most influential papers in the country found the story to be front page news but the editors at the Times did not.

Sonia Sotomayor completed three days of question-and-answer sessions today, and now must wait until July 28 to find out whether the Senate Judiciary Committee will approve her nomination. If she's approved, as expected, leaders in both parties have said a vote will come before the August recess.

While members of both parties expect Sotomayor to receive bi-partisan support when the full Senate votes, some organizations are playing up her answers on the 2nd Amendment in a push for Republicans to oppose her.

In a lengthy statement, the National Rifle Association announced today it opposes Sotomayor's confirmation based on her answers on the 2nd Amendment. The Republican National Committee released a web video, titled "Tough to Say," that questions what Sotomayor's stance on the 2nd Amendment is.

That's one of the headlines from Roll Call this morning. Steven T. Dennis and Tory Newmyer report:

Hours after a jubilant House Democratic leadership rolled out what they hope will be landmark health care legislation, the gritty work of actually passing it began.

Leaders ran into a firewall of resistance from moderate Democrats and vulnerable freshmen grousing over the measure's provisions to tax the wealthy and small businesses. Some Members also want more cost cutting, even if it leaves more people uninsured.

Immediately after the bill was introduced, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) personally wooed conservative Blue Dog Democrats, but they didn't budge.

“I think that there's still a long ways to go,” Rep. Allen Boyd (Fla.) said. “Many of us wish we would wait and do this after the Senate acts, and we've communicated that to leadership.”

And Rep. Jared Polis (Colo.), meanwhile, was circulating a draft letter among freshman Democrats to Pelosi opposing the $544 billion income tax surcharge on the wealthy, arguing it would hit many small businesses and manufacturers.

“Especially in a recession, we need to make sure not to kill the goose that will lay the golden eggs of our recovery,” Polis wrote. “By concentrating the cost of health care reform in one area, and in one that will negatively affect small businesses, we are concerned that this will discourage entrepreneurial activity and job growth.”

That objection was gaining steam Wednesday among freshmen and others from wealthy suburban districts, as business groups stepped up their attacks.

The tax hikes causing heartburn include a surcharge on families making more than $350,000 a year, a tax on employers that do not provide health insurance and a tax on the uninsured.

But the concern is not just with the substance of the proposal. Some Members fear they will take a tough vote on a tax hike that will not survive the Senate and they think it is merely a placeholder to get through the House. “There's no reason we shouldn't be voting on bills that aren't at least very similar,” one senior Democratic aide said.

Complicating matters more is the question of what would replace the all-in-one approach to raising more than a half-trillion dollars. “There is a school of thought that they can't find another politically tenable solution or one that actually works,” one Democratic leadership aide said.

The story reports there has been a "blitz of closed-door sessions" among Democrats to try and win support for the bill, but to little or no avail:

But among those with the biggest problems, the diplomacy is so far yielding little progress. Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.), the chairman of the Blue Dogs' health care task force, said he hasn't yet been swayed by meetings with Pelosi or President Barack Obama.

He said the revised health bill did little new to address Blue Dogs' desire for cutting costs over new taxes and protecting small businesses.

“There's some minor changes,” Ross said, noting a plan to exempt small businesses below $250,000 in revenue from new taxes. But Ross said the changes don't go far enough and threaten small businesses who already cannot afford insurance.

“If we're not careful about how we structure this, not only are these employees not going to have health insurance, they're not going to have a job either,” he said.

“It still looks like a budget buster,” said Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.), who complained that despite the $1 trillion cost it would still fail to cover every American.

The Blue Dogs could scuttle the bill in committee later this week. But House leaders are imploring Democrats to show unity. Waxman told Roll Call:

“Can a bunch of Members bring a bill down? Yeah. Then what? ... Democrats have a lot at stake in this legislation, the president has made this his No. 1 priority. We're going to have to come together.”

Scott Rasmussen is out with two new polls today showing the results of primary challenges to incumbents.  In the first poll, Texas Governor Rick Perry leads Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison 46%-36%, with other candidates accounting for 6% of the vote.  Perry, who became Governor in 2000 by virtue of having been Bush's 1998 running mate, became the longest serving Governor in Texas history in December of 2008, and is seeking a third term.  He was reelected with 39% of the vote in 2006 (in a four-way race).

In New York, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is in trouble.  She trails Manhattan Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney by 6 points, 27%-33%.  Of course Gillibrand is relatively unknown, with few voters expressing strong opinions of her (or Maloney).  So she's probably not in as bad of shape as your average incumbent drawing 27% in a poll.  As an aside, Maloney was elected to Congress in 1992 by defeating a Republican, Bill Green.  Green was elected to represent the Upper East Side in a 1978 special election, and won re-election as Carter was defeating Reagan by 16 points, Mondale was carrying the district with 61% of the vote, and Dukakis was winning with 66% of the vote.  New York lost three House seats in 1992, two of which came from New York City.  Green had thousands of unfamiliar voters added to his district, and he lost.

Just in time for the President's visit to New Jersey, Monmouth University releases its latest survey of the gubernatorial race, again showing Republican challenger Chris Christie ahead of Jon Corzine (D).

General Election Matchup (Likely Voters)
(Overall / Dem / Ind / Rep)
Christie 45 / 17 / 47 / 78
Corzine 37 / 67 / 24 / 10
Daggett 4 / 4 / 7 / 4
Don't Know 13 / 11 / 20 / 8

Christie's lead is 6 among registered voters, 43-37. That's an increase from a 39-35 lead in Monmouth's last survey in April. Among voters who say they are sure of their choice, Christie has a 29-25 edge among likely voters.

Favorability Ratings
Corzine 41 / 50
Christie 43 / 24
Daggett 6 / 9

Voters overwhelmingly say property taxes are the most important issue -- 49 percent. Another 8 percent say income taxes, and 5 percent say sales taxes. But 23 percent say the economy is the top issue for them.

Looking at President Obama, he has a 56 percent approval rating among likely voters, with 34 percent disapproving. Yet when asked if they are satisfied with how things are going in Washington, only 38 percent say yes and 54 percent say no. Though some say the 2009 gubernatorial elections could be a referendum on Obama's policies, 75 percent of New Jersey likely voters say they'll decide their vote based on state and local issues. Another 69 percent say that President Obama campaigning for Corzine will have no impact on their decision. Actually, 17 percent say it would make them less likely to support him, while only 13 percent say it would help him.

The telephone poll was conducted by Braun Research from July 9-14, with a sample of 792 registered voters and margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent. The likely voter subsample of 527 voters had a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent. Christie maintains a 10.4 point average in the RCP Average.

To say the story of Lenny Dykstra's financial collapse is an embarrassment to Jim Cramer would be a WEE bit of an understatement. If you don't know the story, start by reading Steven Malanga's piece on RealClearMarkets this morning.

Then watch this clip of Cramer being interviewed by Bernie Goldberg last year showering Dykstra with praise as "one of the great ones in the business." It's a doozy:

(Here's a clip of Goldberg's follow up piece on Dykstra, who's now $30 million in debt and mumbles profanities about everyone who's suing him, which aired recently on HBO.)

If you remember, Cramer's credibility took a hit for urging people to buy Bear Stearns just before the company went poof.  He explained that away - to the extent he could - by saying that the CEO misled him about Bear's financial situation.

Lenny Dykstra is a different case. Cramer is either a gullible boob or a startlingly bad judge of talent.  Cramer acknowledged in the interview that it was hard for people to see an "unsophisticated" former jock like Dykstra as the financial genius Cramer claimed. It seemed, as Malanga wrote, "too good to be true." And that's exactly what it was.

UPDATE: John Stewart piles on.

New Hotline/Diageo poll (July 9-13) shows President Obama's job approval at 56%, a drop of nine points from their last survey one month ago.  Meanwhile, those disapproving of the job Obama is doing as president jumped 7 points to 38%.

These numbers are nearly identical Obama's job ratings in the latest RCP Average:

To put the recent slide in President Obama's job approval in some perspective, look at the spread (i.e. the difference between those who approve of the job he's doing versus those who disapprove) below the line graph. During the month of June, Obama's spread averaged +26.2 points. In the first 15 days of July, it's averaged +21.2 points.