Commentators are slowly but surely catching up to the idea that the dynamic for 2010 will be different from the dynamics for 2008 and 2006.  This isn't to say that the GOP will take back control of the House in 2010, but substantial gains are increasingly easier to defend.

The latest evidence of this comes from National Journal's latest House rankings.  NJ ranks the House races most likely to switch hands as follows:

1.  LA-02 (Cao)(R)

2.  DE-AL (Castle) (R)

3.  IL-10 (Kirk, Open) (R)

4.  PA-6 (Gerlach, Open) (R)

5.  VA-5 (Perriello) (D)

6.  NJ-02 (Teague) (D)

7.  AL-02 (Bright) (D)

8.  ID-01 (Minnick) (D)

9.  FL-08 (Grayson) (D)

10.  MD-01 (Kratovil) (D)

11.  NY-23 (McHugh, Open) (R)

12.  OH-01 (Driehaus) (D)

13.  CO-04 (Markey) (D)

14.  OH-15 (Kilroy) (D)

15 (tie).  WA-08 (Reichert) (R)

15 (tie).  MS-01 (Childers) (D)

I think this is pretty much spot-on.  LA-02 and DE-AL are likely goners for the GOP; even if Castle runs for re-election, it is unclear whether he can hold this seat in the face of a very strong Democratic challenger.  I think the situation in IL-10 and PA-06 are somewhat less dire for the GOP than these rankings indicate, after all the GOP has quality candidates in each who fit the district's mold well, and Republicans managed to win here in atrocious GOP years.  I also think that the addition of Reichert is a bit gratuitous; I think just about any GOPer who survived the last two elections is going to have their seats as long as they want (or until they are redistricted out of existence).

Anyway, this is quite the change from the last few years, when lists of seats likely to switch hands had so many Rs that reading them made you sound like you were at a pirate convention.