So, here comes Barack Obama's long-awaited speech to the Muslim world, to decidedly mixed reaction.  I am not going to dwell at the moment on the specifics of his Israel policy (for a very pessimistic assessment see this post by Ron Radosh, though there are many Israel supporters who do not share Ron's endorsement of the settlements).  I also agree that the part of the speech dealing with Iran was rather weak, full of lofty sentiment signifying nothing.  But some of the scathing criticism directed at Obama strikes me as rather misguided.  For instance, Charles Krauthammer found it to be infected by "self-absorption"; but was Obama's talk of the aspects of his personal story that were relevant to the issues at hand all that different from what, say, Ronald Reagan did?

Does it really matter that Obama never used the words "terror" or "terrorism," referring instead to "violent extremism"?  The power of the T-word has been somewhat diluted by overuse; besides, to many (non-terror-sympathizing) Muslims it is undoubtedly a red-flag word, due to their common belief that the West looks at a Muslim and sees a terrorist.  I think it was a positive thing to say, and drive home the point, that terrorism by any other name would smell as foul.

The President's powerful affirmation of the memory of the Holocaust, and firm condemnation of Holocaust denial, was a key part of the speech.  Some believe that, by transitioning immediately to the plight of displaced Palestinians, Obama drew a moral equivalence between the Holocaust and Palestinian displacement.   (more...)

Since his inauguration -- actually, since well before his inauguration -- the punditry has been in awe of President Obama's continually high approval ratings.  As I've opined before, the fact that we have not seen a President in almost two decades whose ascension to power was not considered illegitimate by a substantial portion of the electorate probably plays a role here; Obama's approval ratings are not that stratospheric when one considers other Presidents who did not share the taint Bush II and Clinton suffered upon becoming President.

That said, there are some signs that Obama's approval ratings are beginning to come down to Earth.  This is unsurprising -- every post-World War II President who has served a full term, save Eisenhower, has seen his approval rating drop below 50% at some point in his first term.  Regardless, Rasmussen has Obama's net "strongly approve/strongly disapprove" ratings at zero for the first time in his term.  His net approval rating is tied for the lowest of his term.  At the same time, the percentage of people who classify Obama's leadership skills as "Excellent" or "Good" is only 51%.  49% give him "Fair" or "Poor" marks.

Gallup has also shown a narrowing of his approve/disapprove, which is the lowest today it has been in months (though it is still a very healthy net +31%).  The RCP average has him at his lowest net approval rating of his term (again, a healthy +25.2%); it also has him below 60% for only the second time (the first time was in March).

I've never really expected Obama's approval rating to collapse suddenly.  Even President Bush's approval rating declined only gradually over time.  Instead, what we will likely see with Obama is a Presidency that gets nibbled at bit by bit.  This week, more than a few people were likely alienated by the GM bailout.  Others probably took umbrage at his speech in Cairo, while others may dislike Sotomayor's "wise Latina woman" comments (although her approvals are still high, they are lower than Obama's, meaning there are some people who don't like her or are neutral about her who claim to like Obama).

Each little controversy takes a toll on Obama.  Given the challenges he has faced in his term, it is a little surprising he has held up as well as he has to date, though he also probably gets graded on something of a curve given the mess he inherited.

Time will tell whether this becomes a long term trend, or is merely a blip.  But for the first time since the stimulus debate, we're starting to get some signs that events are wearing away some of Obama's glow.

New poll of the Florida Senate and Governor's races by Strategic Vision (May 29-31, 1,200 LV) shows current Republican Governor Charlie Crist dominating the Senate primary against Marco Rubio and the general election match ups against potential Democratic challengers:

Senate - Republican Primary
Crist 59
Rubio 22
Undecided 19

Senate - General Election
Crist (R) 59
Meek (D) 29
Undecided 12

Rubio (R) 31
Meek (D) 30
Undecided 39

In the governor's race, Republican State Attorney General Bill McCollum has the upper hand against State Senator Paula Dockery.  McCollum also edges out likely Democratic nominee Alex Sink in a general election match up, while Dockery trails Sink by six:

Governor - Republican Primary
McCollum 44
Dockery 28
Undecided 28

Governor - General Election
McCollum (R) 41
Sink (D) 39
Undecided 20

Sink (D) 40
Dockery (R) 34
Undecided 26

Other notables from the poll: President Obama has a 60% overall job approval rating in Florida. And while 56% of Florida voters say they approve of the way Obama is handling the war on terrorism (a phrase his administration no longer uses, incidentally), only 39% approve of his decision to shut down the Guantanamo Bay prison, while 52% oppose the move.

Governor Crist job approval rating is 62%. Democratic Senator Bill Nelson's job approval is 55%, and Republican Senator Mel Martinez's job approval rating is 45%, according to the survey.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning that the unemployment rate has risen to 9.4 percent, up half-a-percent from last month. The BLS also stated in its monthly report that the number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000, to a total of 14.5 million.

"Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points," the report states.

Congress's Joint Economic Committee will meet this morning at 9:30 a.m., as it does every month, to discuss the new numbers.

After trailing Terry McAuliffe by 23 points in the previous Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, State Sen. Creigh Deeds now leads both McAuliffe and Brian Moran.

Today's Research 2000 poll finds McAuliffe in third for the first time in months, if not ever. Deeds leads with 30% (+17 from last month), followed by Moran with 27% (+5) and McAuliffe 26% (-10). Still, the candidates are only a few points apart -- a constant among the different polls recently.

For the general election, Moran performs best against Republican Bob McDonnell, trailing by 8 points (43%-35%) -- Deeds trails by 12 points (46%-34%) and McAuliffe by 13 points (46%-33%).

This is the third poll in three days that Deeds has led in the June 9 Democratic primary. He's clearly felt a boost from his Washington Post endorsement and the ensuing ads he's airing around the state touting it. Deeds now leads in the RCP Average by 1.0 point.

There is going to be a great deal of analysis in the coming days similar to Michael Crowley's article today. “Obama's [speech] seems to offer the potential of making millions of Muslims reconsider their view of America,” Crowley wrote.

I'm skeptical of his line of thinking. There was no new or shocking proposal, step, or language in Barack Obama's address. There was phrasing that will resonate. Obama spoke of “Palestine” and not simply a “future Palestinian state.”

But I doubt the speech will jolt the Muslim world. My sense is that it will be greeted warmly by Muslims but with understandable skepticism. In the Middle East, the people have heard it all before.

I also suspect the optics of Obama have already had their impact. Gallup data shows that while Obama has improved the image of the United States, he has not drastically done so.

Gallup conducted a poll in 11 Arab countries and asked people whether they approve or disapprove of U.S. leadership. In the past year, between George W. Bush and Obama, there was a notable change. Egypt went from 6 percent approval to 25 percent. Saudi Arabia, 12 to 29. Kuwait, 20 to 33. Syria, 4 to 15. Lebanon, 25 to 22. Palestinian Territories, 13 to 7.

The polling was conducted in March. By that point, the Muslim world had digested that the United States had elected a black man, who lived in the most populous Islamic nation as a boy and who has a Muslim name.

Moving forward, I tend to think regular Muslims will be results oriented. Obama's speech today helped open their mind to great possibility. Now they'll want to see proof of what is possible.

In this vein, the “potential” is there. But that potential was there before Obama spoke as well. Muslims will reconsider their view of America when they have tangible steps that give them reason to reconsider. To think otherwise, is like discussing the Hispanic vote and presuming that merely a Latino Republican presidential candidate can win their allegiance. Hispanics distance from the GOP involves rhetoric, but policy far more.

It can only help that Al Jazeera's headline today was “Obama seeks new start with Muslims” or that the headline on Al Arabiya was “Obama cites Quran to reach Muslims from Egypt.” But I suspect those words, like the man himself, earns an open ear and mind. That matters. No other president has had the qualities that allow Obama to immediately break through cultural barriers.

But Muslims have concerns, issues, gripes and they want action. Some actions we can take, like pressuring Israel to freeze settlement construction. Down the road, the United States may push Israel to rollback those settlements. But the United States, for example, will never back a “right of return” for Palestinians or suddenly remove all combat forces from the region (and some Arab regimes would not want us to). In other words, there is only so much compromise to be had. This provides a ceiling on altering the Muslim word's view of the United States.

In another poll, Gallup found that Americans understand their disagreements. Eighty percent of the U.S. public believes people in Muslim countries have an unfavorable view of the United States. This number has remained steady since 2003. And, over the same period, only between a fifth and a quarter of Americans say they have a favorable view of Muslim nations.

Both the views of people in the Muslim world and Americans are partly skewed by stereotypes. But I also think there is an honest difference of opinion over some big issues. That does not mean there is not common ground. It only means that words can only go so far. I suspect Obama touched some hearts today. But I doubt he changed many minds.

The Senate Judiciary Committee has posted Judge Sonia Sotomayor's completed questionnaire. You can read the 172 page PDF here, and there's also a 130-page appendix.

For what it's worth, the White House notes that the questionnaire was submitted "just 9 days after being nominated to the Supreme Court," which makes it "the swiftest questionnaire completion in recent history."

State Sen. Creigh Deeds leads a poll in the Virginia gubernatorial race for the second time this week. The upcoming June 9 Democratic primary pits Deeds, former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe and former state Rep. Brian Moran against each other in what has become an incredibly tight, three-man race.

The Suffolk University poll released today finds Deeds ahead with 29%, followed by McAuliffe with 26% and Moran 23%. Though the election is less than a week away, undecided voters still make up more than one-fifth of the electorate (22%).

"With the remaining undecided at 22 percent, the Deeds lead could be fluid, and the final tally could hinge on last-minute campaign ads, momentum, the weather, and get-out-the-vote efforts from all the candidates," said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk's Political Research Center.

Fresh off his primary victory Tuesday night, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) boasts a double-digit lead over Gov. Jon Corzine (D), according to a new Rasmussen poll released today. He now surpasses the 50 percent threshold, after falling just short in a poll last month before he won the nomination.

General Election Matchup
Christie 51 (+4 from 5/12)
Corzine 38 (unch)
Undecided 6 (-3)

Job Approval:
Obama 60/40
Corzine 42/58

Another big warning sign for Corzine: 41 percent of voters strongly disapprove of his job performance, and 37 percent have a "very unfavorable" opinion of him.

Favorability
Corzine 41/58
Christie 56/35

The poll finds that by double-digit margins, New Jersey voters favor Christie over the incumbent when it comes to taxes (+15), cutting government spending (+23) and fighting corruption (+27). But when asked who they think will win the election, respondents had an interesting response: 43 percent said Christie, while 41 percent said Corzine.

The poll was conducted June 3, surveying 500 likely voters, and had a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.

“It is time for us to act on what everyone knows to be true,” President Barack Obama said this morning in Egypt.

This is the great fact of the region. Thomas Friedman's column yesterday deftly summed up the chasm in the Middle East between understanding the problems and taking the action needed to solve those problems—not to mention even the less-dire repercussions of those brave enough to make the hard choices.

Israeli parliamentary governments are fragile. They do not have the leeway of an American president. Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu appears married to his conservative coalition. If he is to the hawk who makes peace, then he will have to be willing to risk his power to construct a new coalition that will back that peace.

The Muslim authoritarian powers often depend on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to distract their people from the corruption and repression at home. They have a great stake in the Israeli scapegoat and keeping the Palestinians in plight. And the president understands that.

"The Arab-Israeli conflict should no longer be used to distract the people of Arab nations from other problems," he said Thursday.

Israeli conservatives are strident Zionists. Yet all, but the most radical, know that Israel either can be a Jewish state or a bigger state. The rising population of the Palestinians, their struggle and the way the issue forces Israel into a political bunker on the world stage, leaves no choice but the hard choices. Well, that's not exactly true. An Israeli girl once told me in the late 1990s, we don't have peace but at least we are not at war. This is a region that has been forced to accept the imperfect.

Now the United States asks Israel to take the first step and freeze settlements. Israelis understandably ask, what about step two, three, four and so on? Who are they to negotiate peace with? Hamas, however slightly, won the most support in the last Palestinian election. In the last 24 hours, Hamas and Fatah again clashed in the West Bank, leaving three Hamas members and a Palestinian policeman dead.

As their leaders fight, regular Palestinians remain in limbo. Obama spoke this morning of the "occupation" suffered by the Palestinian people. That was further than past presidents were willing to go. He tied that Palestinian struggle to the Jewish experience. Yet poetry is easy here. It's the prose of daily life, the action now needed, which is the real challenge before Obama.

Obama, as I wrote this morning, has become the Mediator-in-Chief. Now he has picked perhaps the world's most difficult dispute to resolve.

This brings us full circle to Friedman's column. Friedman interviewed Obama. As with today's speech, one walks away from the column comforted that the president understands that the Middle East depends on action and not talk. Obama clearly gets the big picture of the region's big problems.

But moving forward, agreeing on the most pressing problem is also part of the problem. The Palestinians are consumed by stability and statehood. The Israelis are deeply worried about an Iran on the cusp of nuclearization. Iran's foreign policy is focused on defending its domestic nuclearization.

The Arab regimes drum for a two-state solution. But again one asks, what will those authoritarian regimes do without their Israeli piñata? Self-preservation pervades all foreign policy, but particularly autocracies. And many Arab leaders remain equally weary of the rooster of radicalism coming home roost ever more.

Still, to be sure, it is always good to have an American president speaking the hard truths. Today's speech was a good start. But this region is full of starts. It's the finish that feels like a mirage in the Middle East. History depends on follow-through.