Actor Jon Voight proved last night that there are conservative Republicans in Hollywood. Yes, it's true, though House and Senate Republicans could hardly believe it.

Some 2,000 people joined 33 GOP senators and about 150 House members at the annual fundraising dinner for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee. The GOP campaign arms raised a combined $14.5 million from the affair, held at the Washington Convention Center.

While the buzz centered on the presence of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and the keynote address by former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Voight, who emceed the event, gave an opening speech that left many, well, speechless.

"Everything Obama has recommended has turned out to be disastrous," Voight said, before listing the economic stimulus package, government-owned car companies, rising unemployment, Israel and health care. Voight said Obama "turned out to be radically liberal," and said Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Obama adviser David Axelrod, among others, are to blame "for the downfall of this country."

"We and we alone are the only people who can free this nation from this Obama oppression," said Voight, who made several appearances last year at the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul.

Upon stepping to the podium, elected officials were elated with the speech and joked that it may hurt Voight's future employment opportunities.

"One of the most courageous acts in our society today is to stand up in Hollywood and say you're a conservative Republican," said Rep. Paul Ryan (Wisc.), who introduced the Oscar-winning actor.

"Wasn't that a great speech?" asked Sen. Orrin Hatch (Utah).

"Isn't it a refreshing thing to hear a person from Hollywood give the kind of speech Jon did tonight," said NRSC Chairman John Cornyn. "Jon, we need more people like you in Hollywood to speak their conscience."

"I'm still just reveling in hearing someone from Hollywood give a speech like that," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Kent.). "I hope you're going to be able to find work after this."

Gingrich, opening what would be close to an hour-long speech, said Voight "has given you the battle cry for the next few years," referencing a quote Voight used from his characterization of President Franklin Roosevelt in the movie, "Pearl Harbor."

"I think the phrase, 'Don't tell me it can't be done,' is about as good a way to start thinking about 2010 and 2012 as you could imagine," Gingrich said. "I recognize that 2009 is not 1994. But I want to say to you Republicans -- we have been here before."

The theme of the night among the Senate and House leaders was party unity and winning back control of Congress. McConnell referred to Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio) as "my buddy," and Boehner said he "could not have a greater partner."

Cornyn and NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions, both from Texas, expressed optimism for the midterm elections. "I'm excited about our opportunities in 2010," Cornyn said. Sessions stepped to the podium and held up the card denoting his table number: 218, which happens to be the number of House seats needed for a majority. "Our job on the House side is to retire Nancy Pelosi," he said.

Facing a 78-seat deficit in the House and down to just 40 seats in the Senate, winning back Congress next year will be a tall order. However, as Gingrich reiterated at the close of his speech, Republicans -- at least publicly -- think they have a chance.

"Do not tell me it can't be done. It was true for FDR. It's true for us."

Vice President Joe Biden, Attorney General Eric Holder and other top Obama officials have canceled plans to attend the U.S. Conference of Mayors meeting this weekend in  Providence. The reason: Providence firefighters plan to use the event to protest a long-running contract dispute with the city. The officials don't want to cross the firefighters' picket line.

Others opting out include HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan,  Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson and Senior White House Advisor Valerie Jarrett.

Rhode Islanders seem hopping mad that one of their most indulged public employee unions is trying to dim their capital city's moment in the sun as a negotiating tactic.  Mail to The Providence Journal is running more than 9 to 1 against the union, and callers into local talk radio are going nuts.

As ProJo Editorial Page Editor Robert Whitcomb notes in his New England blog:

The union doesn't want its members to pay a cent for health insurance and demands that the taxpayers continue to pay for all of it. And yet many taxpayers have no health insurance themselves, or if they do, pay huge premiums for it.

Rhode Island also has one of America's highest unemployment rates.

The union offered to call off the pickets if Providence Mayor David Cicilline stayed away from the conference he helped organize. The mayor declined to do so.

Cicilline has enjoyed a surge of support for his firm stand in contract negotiations. And although labor remains a potent political force in Rhode Island, Democrat Cicilline will be politically okay.  He's liberal, gay and half  Italian.

New Quinnipiac Univeristy poll (June 2 – 7, 1,245 RV, MoE+/- 2.8%) of the Governor's race in Florida shows Democrat Alex Sink with a small lead over Republican Bill McCollum in a hypothetical general election match up with one quarter of the potential electorate undecided:

General Election
Sink (D) 38
McCollum (R) 34
Undecided 25

Job Approval Ratings
McCollum: 51% approve, 16% disapprove, 33% no opinion
Sink 39% approve, 17% disapprove, 44% no opinion

Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings
McCollum +27 (40 fav/13 unfav/46 don't know)
Sink +18 (25 fav/ 7 unfav/ 66 don't know)

Mood of Florida voters: 51% say they are "very" or "somewhat" satisfied with the way things are going in Florida today, while 33% say they are "very" or "somewhat" dissatisfied.

Taxes: 61% support reducing property taxes for first time homeowners. However, only 45% of voters support reducing property taxes on business in Florida, while 42% oppose the idea.

RealClearWorld, the one-stop shop for the best international news and analysis, is co-sponsoring a special policy discussion on this week's Iran presidential election. Hosted by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, RCW will offer a live webcast of the event, which features Washington Institute's Mehdi Khalaji, American Enterprise Institute's Ali Alfoneh, as well as Iran expert - and regular RCW contributor - Meir Javedanfar.

The event takes place Wednesday at 9 a.m. ET.

Be sure to check out what will be a fascinating look into what the election could mean for the average Iranian, as well as for President Obama's foreign policy.

Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) flatly ruled out challenging Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) in 2010 during a local event this morning. From the Hendersonville News-Times:

"I am not running for Senate," the second-term Democrat said after a ground-breaking ceremony for a new building at the Bent Creek Experimental Forest Station in Asheville. "I am not running for Senate. I am not running for Senate. I have said that a thousand times, and I don't know why they keep coming up (with the idea). Of course they keep coming up and running polls.

As Kyle reported last week, Shuler had said earlier this year he wouldn't run, but state and national Democrats were still hoping to change his mind. Burr keeps finding himself listed among vulnerable GOP incumbents, but so far no top Democrat has been recruited.

In the race for governor of Virginia, a second poll in as many days shows State Sen. Creigh Deeds with more than 40% support in the three-way Democratic primary. The election takes place tomorrow, with Deeds appearing to have all the late-breaking momentum in the race.

Following a PPP poll showing him leading by 14 points, a new SurveyUSA poll (taken of LV, June 5-7) finds Deeds out in front with 42% -- ahead of former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe (30%) and former State Rep. Brian Moran (21%).

Deeds now leads by 8.3 points in the RCP Virginia Average.

Marist is out with a new national survey (June 1-3, 1,028 RV, MoE +/-3.0%) pegging President Obama's job approval at 56%. While lower than some other polls, this number is essentially unchanged from Marist's earlier surveys.

Overall, however, with the addition of the Marist poll Obama is now at 59.0% in the updatd RCP Average, his lowest job approval rating to date.

Last week I opined that Republicans were the slight underdogs in the New Jersey Gubernatorial election, based mainly on their history of underperforming the polls.  But I concluded:  "If regular polling begins to show [now-Republican nominee Chris] Christie over 50%, however, the analysis will change considerably in Christie's favor."

We now have one such poll; others may be forthcoming.  While this may well be a simple example of the post-primary bounce many candidates enjoy, this is still a substantial milestone; Tom Kean, Jr. never reached this marker against Robert Menendez, even as he led in polling for most of the fall.

The breakdown of the primary voting shows remarkable strength for Christie as well.  Consider the following maps.  The first map shows the breakdown for the Schundler-Franks primary in 2001; the second shows the results for the Christie-Lonegan primary in 2009. In both elections the more "liberal" candidate -- Franks and Christie -- are depicted in blue, while the more conservative candidate -- Schundler and Lonegan -- are depicted in red (2009 was a 3-way primary, so it is difficult to map):

:

As you can see, Christie held on to the Southern New Jersey base that Franks captured, but he also performed strongly in Northern New Jersey. Lonegan performed well only in the counties along the Pennsylvania border.

This becomes more significant when you consider the parties' bases in the state.  It's difficult not to compare apples to oranges here, since Republicans had a higher-turnout primary than Democrats.  So what I looked at is the distribution of the vote in the 2009 Democratic and Republican primaries.

An example is the best way to explain what this map means.  Essex county (Newark) cast 14% of the total Democratic primary vote.  It cast only 4% of the total Republican primary vote.  It is therefore shaded deep blue, as it is much more a part of the Democratic base than the Republican base.  On the other hand, Morris county cast 12% of the GOP primary vote, but only 4% of the Democratic vote.  It is therefore red.

It is only a rough estimate, but it still gives us some idea of where the parties are the strongest:

There's nothing surprising here:  Democrats are the strongest in Camden county (Philly suburbs) and Hudson (Jersey City), Essex and Middlesex counties (East Brunswick).  Republicans are strongest in Ocean and Morris counties.  We expect this from our knowledge of the state.

But here's the critical thing:  In the Republican primary, Christie ran very well in counties where Democrats have real strength.  This is opposed to Schundler who was relatively weak in many of these counties despite serving as mayor of Jersey City.  This strength in Democratic strongholds is another hopeful sign for Christie; if his primary appeal to Republicans and independents in these counties can translate to Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in the general election (given Corzine's weak showing in the primary this is entirely possible), it could be a good year for New Jersey Republicans.

Of course, Corzine has yet to break out the checkbook.  The potential impact of that should not be underestimated.

Virginia gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds has opened up a double-digit lead with just one day to go in the race for the Democratic nomination. A new PPP poll finds Deeds (40%) leading Terry McAuliffe by 14 points, with Brian Moran just 2 points behind McAuliffe. One-tenth of voters remain undecided.

Deeds is the only one of the three Dems to have run statewide, and in the last week his campaign has focused its advertising on the endorsement of The Washington Post. In Arlington, McAuliffe signs once ruled the roadways; now, "The Washington Post endorsed Deeds" signs are everywhere.

On Friday, McAuliffe trotted out the endorsements of Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell -- both chairmen of national governors associations. Over the weekend, all three candidates were canvassing for voters, through phone calls and door-to-door outreach.

With one day to go, Deeds leads by 3.7 points in the RCP Virginia Average

As I said in my previous post, I had a largely positive reaction to Obama's Cairo speech.  However, I agree with David Frum's criticsm of Obama's comments about women's rights -- which should have been a key part of an "outreach to Muslims" speech.  In contrast to Obama's strong affirmation of the principles of democracy, his discussion of women's issues and Islam was too general, too weak, and afflicted with excessive even-handedness.

Here is the passage in its entirety:

The sixth issue that I want to address is women's rights.

I know there is debate about this issue. I reject the view of some in the West that a woman who chooses to cover her hair is somehow less equal, but I do believe that a woman who is denied an education is denied equality. And it is no coincidence that countries where women are well-educated are far more likely to be prosperous.

Now let me be clear: issues of women's equality are by no means simply an issue for Islam. In Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia, we have seen Muslim-majority countries elect a woman to lead. Meanwhile, the struggle for women's equality continues in many aspects of American life, and in countries around the world.

Our daughters can contribute just as much to society as our sons, and our common prosperity will be advanced by allowing all humanity - men and women - to reach their full potential. I do not believe that women must make the same choices as men in order to be equal, and I respect those women who choose to live their lives in traditional roles. But it should be their choice. That is why the United States will partner with any Muslim-majority country to support expanded literacy for girls, and to help young women pursue employment through micro-financing that helps people live their dreams.

Frum takes issue, in particular, with Obama's remarks about the head-covering issue: he points out that not only "some in the West," but many women in the Muslim world regard the hijab as a symbol of female submission (not to God but to man), and that many women who "choose" to cover themselves (sometimes not only their hair but their face) do so because of coercion and intimidation either by family members or by radical Islamic militias.  I do believe Obama was right to affirm a woman's right to choose hijab; quite a few Muslim feminists regard it as a legitimate and positive form of religious expression, no different from the Jewish yarmulke, and quite a few moderately traditional Muslims are alienated by the categorical rejection of the hijab as oppressive.  However,  it would have been fitting to balance his statement with an assertion of a woman's right to choose not to cover their hair -- a right that, in some countries, they are denied not only by informal pressure and harassment, but by law and official policy.

As for the rest of this passage, it was nice of Obama to assert the importance of educational opportunities for girls and women, but that's about as uncontroversial as it gets: who, except for the Taliban, disagrees?  In all too many Muslim countries, the main problems facing women are far more severe: forced marriage, vastly unequal treatment when it comes to divorce and child custody, and socially sanctioned violence.  How can one talk about women's rights in the Muslim world and not mention honor killings?  Or the horrific recent public flogging by a Taliban militia in Pakistan of a 17-year-old girl whose apparent offense was to have stepped outside her house without a male relative escorting her?  Or cases in which Islamic courts have sentenced rape victims to death for fornication or adultery when the rape could not be proved under a stringent standard requiring two male witnesses?  (While we're at it, how about the fact that in Islamic courts, the word of a female witness is officially given half the weight of a man's?)  What about female genital mutilation?  Against the backdrop of these genuine horrors, literacy programs and micro-financing for young women's employment look like a rather feeble response.   How about first ensuring that the girl who participates in a literacy program doesn't get brutalized for showing a strand of hair in public?

In this context, Obama's comment that "the struggle for women's equality" is also a problem in America is also, to say the least, unhelpful.  Yes, there are still gender disparities in the U.S., though I think many of them are due to, as Obama put it, women not making the same choices as men.  But to mention what sexism still remains in American society in the same breath as the violent misogyny and patriarchal oppression still pervasive in much of the Muslim world today is a truly misguided attempts at even-handedness.  It's a bit like saying that of course it's a bad thing that of course it's a bad thing that Joe locks his wife in the closet, beats her senseless, forbids her to talk to any other man and monitors every penny she spends, but hey, Bill spends only half the time his wife does on housework and child care and treats his own career as more important than his wife's, so if he voices disapproval of Joe he'd better mention his own failings too.

Yes, of course it's not only in Muslim countries that women face severe oppression.  (The issue of women being elected to lead in deeply patriarchal cultures is a separate, and fascinating, one, but I don't think it's a good measure of the overall status of women in society.)  And I know there is a vigorous debate about whether Islam is inherently more female-unfriendly than other major religions and whether an Islamic feminsm is possible.  Nonetheless, the fact remains that in recent decades we have seen a rollback of women's rights in many societies -- sometimes a drastic rollback -- due to the influence of Islamic extremism.  Obama's failure to mention this fact was extremely disappointing.  Talk about a missed opportunity.  In my previous post, I said that Obama's comments on women's rights deserved no more than a B-.  Analyzing them now, I'm lowering the grade to a gentleman's C.

(Cross-posted to The Y Files.)