Leadership Vacuum, Or Opportunity?

Democrats and MSNBC pundits delightedly flogged yesterday's Gallup Poll that found most voters have no idea who "speaks for" the Republican Party.

Of those Republicans most named by the Gallup participants, only John McCain (picked by 6%) even holds elective office. Topping the list were Rush Limbaugh (13%) and Dick Cheney (10%), with Newt Gingrich polling 6% and George W. Bush 3%. The "1% Club" included GOP House Minority Leader John Boehner, RNC Chairman Michael Steele and likely 2012 presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

"While being associated with the party of the sitting president gives the Democrats a natural advantage over the Republicans in having a well-defined person representing them, these data clearly underscore the leadership vacuum that confronts the Republican Party today," Gallup's Frank Newport wrote.

The Gallup survey provides a fascinating snapshot in time, but things change quickly. Who would have said Barack Obama "speaks for" the Democrats in January 2008, before he won the Iowa caucuses? Three years away from the next presidential election, with Republicans the minority party in Congress and out of power in the White House, is it really surprising a single spokesman has not risen to the fore? And is it really a bad thing for the GOP?

With the economy in the tank and unpopular bailouts dominating the news, it might be politically convenient for Republicans right now that voters are clear only about who speaks for Democrats -- 60% say Barack Obama and 20% say Nancy Pelosi.


VA Gov Poll: Deeds With Early Lead

Less than two days since Creigh Deeds won the Democratic primary in Virginia, Rasmussen released a poll this morning showing him with a lead over Republican Bob McDonnell in the race for governor. The survey was taken June 10 of 500 likely voters.

Deeds 47
McDonnell 41
Und 10


Pathetic Dave

I have to say, I'm with Sarah Palin on this one. Letterman's ongoing cracks about her looks and (even more outrageously) cheap sexual innuendo about her daughter is "pathetic" and very much beneath him.

Is our culture so coarse that late night talk show hosts can't get by without making sex jokes about teenage daughters of elected officials?


Cantor's Boast

Republican House Minority Whip Eric Cantor to ABC News: "I really believe we've got a shot at taking back this House because you see what's gone on here with the unfettered ability of this administration and Nancy Pelosi to run this Congress."

Cantor also said of Obama: "He's a likable guy. He's an attractive leader. But his policies are now tanking. The economy is our issue again. National security is our issue again."


AL Gov Poll: Byrne Has Early Advantage

The race for governor of Alabama should be competitive, according to a new PPP survey (June 2-5, 667 RV, MoE +/- 3.8%). Bradley Byrne (R) holds a slim lead over Rep. Artur Davis (D), though Davis leads the other three Republicans tested.

Republicans: Byrne, two-year college system chancellor and former state senator; Tim James, businessman and son of former governor Fob James; Treasurer Kay Ivey; Roy Moore, former state Supreme Court chief justice and 2006 candidate.

Democrats: Rep. Artur Davis; Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks.

Davis 35 - Byrne 39 - Und 26
Davis 37 - James 35 - Und 28
Davis 39 - Ivey 31 - Und 31
Davis 41 - Moore 38 - Und 21

Sparks 27 - Byrne 41 - Und 33
Sparks 33 - Ivey 29 - Und 39
Sparks 32 - James 32 - Und 37
Sparks 36 - Moore 38 - Und 25


Sole Man

This story, alleging that some Israelis are insulted by a picture of Obama with his feet on the desk (thus baring the soles of his shoes, a sign of disrespect in the Arab world) while speaking to Prime Minister Netanyahu, strikes me as a case of phony outrage ginned up by the media's obsession to find and report conflict.

Israelis have legitimate reasons to be concerned about President Obama's policies in the Middle East, but paranoid carping about subliminal messages and insults doesn't necessarily help the cause.


RCW Livecast on Iranian Election

RealClearWorld is livecasting a panel discussion at the Washington Institute this morning on the impending elections in Iran. Click here to watch the event.


FL Sen Poll: Crist Leads, Dems Unknown

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist doubles up State Rep. Marco Rubio in the Republican Senate primary, while more than half of Democratic voters don't yet have a favorite candidate, a new Quinnipiac survey finds. President Obama has a 58% approval rating (down 6 points from February), with Crist's slightly higher at 62% -- down 4 points from last month.

"Marco Rubio says there are many Florida Republicans who don't want Charlie Crist in the U.S. Senate," said Quinnipiac assistant director Peter Brown. "Depending on how you define the word ‘many,' he might be correct. Unfortunately for Rubio at this stage, many, many, many more favor Crist."

Democrats tested were Reps. Kendrick Meek, Corrine Brown and Ron Klein.

GOP Primary
Crist 54
Rubio 23
Und 21

Dem Primary
Meek 18
Brown 12
Klein 8
Und 57


NJ Gov Poll: Corzine Disapproval At All-Time High

The latest poll in the New Jersey gubernatorial race brings more bad news for Gov. Jon Corzine (D), who sees his disapproval rating hit a new high as the general election campaign begins. Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) enjoys a 10-point lead among likely voters in Quinnipiac's first survey since the June 2 primary.

General Election Matchup (Likely Voters)
Christie 50
Corzine 40
Undecided 9

Among registered voters, there was only a slight change in polling trends. Christie had led 45-38 in a May 30 survey, and now has ticked up to a 46-37 lead. Polls show that Garden State voters still are not very familiar with the Republican.

Favorability Ratings
Christie 36 / 16 (46 haven't heard enough)
Corzine 35 / 53

Only 36 percent of New Jersey voters approve of how Corzine is handling his job, while 56 disapprove. Corzine has never been particularly popular, though; his high-water mark was 51 percent, in April 2007. President Obama is the only Democrat polling well in the state.

Job Approval
Corzine 36 / 56
Lautenberg 44 / 36
Menendez 40 / 31
Obama 68 / 25

Only 37 percent of voters think Corzine deserves to be re-elected, and 52 percent think things in the state have gotten worse since he took office. The survey was conducted from June 3-8, of 1,338 registered voters, and has a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent.


Virginia Liveblog

8:59pm. McAuliffe's still making his way through the crowd. We're done for the night here. Check back tomorrow for a full write-up.

8:41pm. McAuliffe: "It may not have turned out the way we wanted, but it was quite a ride."

8:28pm. McAuliffe and family on stage now.

8:17pm. McAuliffe supporters still don't seem to know who won. McAuliffe press aide says the candidate will be out soon to speak.

8:12pm. This may be one of the few times in recent history I can think of where a newspaper endorsement was a gamechanger. There were other factors, to be sure (such as the war of attrition between Moran and McAuliffe), but the WaPo endorsement did seem to prompt a second look at a guy who was looking like a third place finisher a few months ago.

Right now Deeds may well sweep every Congressional district in the state. That's amazing, given where we were recently. He's only narrowly trailing Brian Moran in the 8th (brother Jim Moran's district) and is trailing McAuliffe by a bit in the minority-majority 3rd district (where turnout is ominously low). This is great for Deeds -- his come-from-behind sweep of the state will probably give him a nice polling bump going into his rematch with Bob McDonnell; there will be no storyline about a divided Democratic party.

8:09pm. It's over. Deeds wins the Democratic primary in Virginia and will now take on Republican Bob McDonnell, who beat Deeds by some 300 votes in the 2005 race for Attorney General. Who doesn't love a rematch??? -- KT

8:02pm. No change in %ages with 63% in. --KT

8:00pm. Still a lot of votes out in Fairfax and Cityof Richmond, so this may tighten some, but not much.

7:55pm. In Arlington, one of the most liberal counties in the state -- where Deeds probably should perform worse than the two candidates from Northern Virginia -- he's up with 48%, with 92% of precincts reporting. Washington Post endorsement, anyone? --KT

7:49pm. 50% of precincts reporting. Deeds 50, McAuliffe 26, Moran 24. At McAuliffe HQ, "Entertainment Tonight" on the big screen. Supporters continue to trickle in, many with white wine glasses. No one seems aware McAuliffe is down 24 points with half of precincts reporting. --Kyle Trygstad

7:42 NotLarrySabato, a blogger who endorsed McAuliffe, called the race 13 minutes ago for Deeds. --Kyle Trygstad

7:34pm.  25% of the vote is in.  51-25-24.  Will Mr. Deeds stay above 50%?  Deeds is winning 64%-29%-8% in the 9th (Virginia panhandle).  He's winning by a similar margin in Virginia's Fifth District (old George Wallace country).

7:32pm.  2 precincts of 11 in, and 17 votes have been cast for the Tazewell County Board of Supervisors seat (Northern District).  I don't know why, but I find that amusing, amazing and awesome at the same time.

7:31pm.  13% in, and Deeds is absolutely crushing McAuliffe and Moran.  Its hard to see how either pulls it off.  We'll stick around for a while, but it looks like this is going to be a short night.

7:29pm.  McAuliffe is doing well in the suburban-Richmond 7th district, which he needs to do in order to win.  Things aren't looking as promising in the Hampton Roads-based 2nd.

7:27pm.  Live from the Westin Hotel in Arlington, Va. No sign of McAuliffe yet, or many supporters -- though one supporter's been here for the last 30 minutes wandering around drinking a glass of wine. I'll provide more fruitful updates as the night goes on. --Kyle Trygstad

7:23pm.  5% in and Deeds still leads 52%-25%-23%.  McAuliffe is in third place.  In the Light Governor race, Jody Wagner is crushing Michael Singer 70%-25%.

7:21pm.  McAuliffe is winning the Richmond/Hampton Roads based minority-majority 3rd Congressional district, but by a thin margin.  He really needs a huge share of the black vote to pull this out.

7:17pm.  This is going much quicker than New Jersey.  54.09% Deeds 23% Moran, 23% McAuliffe with 4% of precincts in.  Deeds actually won a precinct in Arlington that's in, and two in Fauquier county.    A lot of the precincts in are from Deeds' area of the state, but the big Deeds leads in NoVa are not good news for McAuliffe, and are deadly for Moran.

7:14pm.  Well, with some absentees from Grayson county in, Creigh Deeds is winning by three votes.  Out of 11.

7:02pm.  BTW, there is a first rate, scary thunderstorm moving through NoVa this evening.  It is almost dark outside (street lights are on) when normally the sun should be signing brightly.  It will be interesting to see how this affects turnout.

7pm.  Polls are closed.  Now we wait some more.

Polls close at 7pm.

This is probably the marquee primary contest of the 2009 primary season (which is somewhat akin to being the wellest person in a sick bay, but I digress).  The gubernatorial race is a three-way contest between State Senator and 2005 AG nominee Creigh Deeds, former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe and former delegate Brian Moran.  For much of the year McAuliffe led in polling, but Deeds has surged of late.  Of course, as we learned in the 2008 Democratic primary, polling primaries is a difficult task, and polls are frequently wrong.  Deeds is thought to have a weaker GOTV operation than McAuliffe, so it will make for an interesting primary night.  The winner will face Republican AG Bob McDonnell in the fall.

For Lieutenant Governor, there will be a race between attorney Mike Singer and commonwealth Finance Secretary Jody Wagner.  The winner will take on sitting Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling, who deferred to McDonnell for the Republican gubernatorial nod.



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