The Rothenberg Report presently rates the Oregon gubernatorial race as "Safe Democrat."  But a new poll from Moore Information casts some doubt on this rating.  It finds Congressman Greg Walden trailing former Governor Kitzhaber and Representative Peter DeFazio by only four points, and leading Ex-Secretary of State Bill Bradbury by four points.

Of course, there are some problems here.  Number one, Moore is a Republican polling outfit; it was the only pollster to show then-Senator Gordon Smith leading in the closing days of the election.  This isn't a huge problem: Their high number of undecided voters in their 2008 poll probably made the difference -- they got Smith's percentage more-or-less correct, but the undecideds broke for Merkley -- and even correcting a few points for possible partisan slant, the poll shows a race that is closer than "Safe Democrat."

The second problem is a bigger one.  Namely, Greg Walden so far has not declared.  Republicans' only candidate so far is '08 State Treasurer nominee Allen Alley, who was not tested.  Alley may be a strong candidate, as he lost the 2008 State Treasurer election by only six points, a pretty good result for a Republican in Oregon in that year.  We just have no way of knowing how he matches up against top-tier Democratic nominees.  On the other hand, the only Democrat who has declared is ex-Secretary of State Bradbury, who polled the weakest of the three Democrats tested.

The bottom line is that this race isn't safe for Democrats, though it certainly leans in their direction right now.

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