Last week I opined that Republicans were the slight underdogs in the New Jersey Gubernatorial election, based mainly on their history of underperforming the polls.  But I concluded:  "If regular polling begins to show [now-Republican nominee Chris] Christie over 50%, however, the analysis will change considerably in Christie's favor."

We now have one such poll; others may be forthcoming.  While this may well be a simple example of the post-primary bounce many candidates enjoy, this is still a substantial milestone; Tom Kean, Jr. never reached this marker against Robert Menendez, even as he led in polling for most of the fall.

The breakdown of the primary voting shows remarkable strength for Christie as well.  Consider the following maps.  The first map shows the breakdown for the Schundler-Franks primary in 2001; the second shows the results for the Christie-Lonegan primary in 2009. In both elections the more "liberal" candidate -- Franks and Christie -- are depicted in blue, while the more conservative candidate -- Schundler and Lonegan -- are depicted in red (2009 was a 3-way primary, so it is difficult to map):

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As you can see, Christie held on to the Southern New Jersey base that Franks captured, but he also performed strongly in Northern New Jersey. Lonegan performed well only in the counties along the Pennsylvania border.

This becomes more significant when you consider the parties' bases in the state.  It's difficult not to compare apples to oranges here, since Republicans had a higher-turnout primary than Democrats.  So what I looked at is the distribution of the vote in the 2009 Democratic and Republican primaries.

An example is the best way to explain what this map means.  Essex county (Newark) cast 14% of the total Democratic primary vote.  It cast only 4% of the total Republican primary vote.  It is therefore shaded deep blue, as it is much more a part of the Democratic base than the Republican base.  On the other hand, Morris county cast 12% of the GOP primary vote, but only 4% of the Democratic vote.  It is therefore red.

It is only a rough estimate, but it still gives us some idea of where the parties are the strongest:

There's nothing surprising here:  Democrats are the strongest in Camden county (Philly suburbs) and Hudson (Jersey City), Essex and Middlesex counties (East Brunswick).  Republicans are strongest in Ocean and Morris counties.  We expect this from our knowledge of the state.

But here's the critical thing:  In the Republican primary, Christie ran very well in counties where Democrats have real strength.  This is opposed to Schundler who was relatively weak in many of these counties despite serving as mayor of Jersey City.  This strength in Democratic strongholds is another hopeful sign for Christie; if his primary appeal to Republicans and independents in these counties can translate to Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in the general election (given Corzine's weak showing in the primary this is entirely possible), it could be a good year for New Jersey Republicans.

Of course, Corzine has yet to break out the checkbook.  The potential impact of that should not be underestimated.