Will Obama Change Muslim Minds?

There is going to be a great deal of analysis in the coming days similar to Michael Crowley's article today. “Obama's [speech] seems to offer the potential of making millions of Muslims reconsider their view of America,” Crowley wrote.

I'm skeptical of his line of thinking. There was no new or shocking proposal, step, or language in Barack Obama's address. There was phrasing that will resonate. Obama spoke of “Palestine” and not simply a “future Palestinian state.”

But I doubt the speech will jolt the Muslim world. My sense is that it will be greeted warmly by Muslims but with understandable skepticism. In the Middle East, the people have heard it all before.

I also suspect the optics of Obama have already had their impact. Gallup data shows that while Obama has improved the image of the United States, he has not drastically done so.

Gallup conducted a poll in 11 Arab countries and asked people whether they approve or disapprove of U.S. leadership. In the past year, between George W. Bush and Obama, there was a notable change. Egypt went from 6 percent approval to 25 percent. Saudi Arabia, 12 to 29. Kuwait, 20 to 33. Syria, 4 to 15. Lebanon, 25 to 22. Palestinian Territories, 13 to 7.

The polling was conducted in March. By that point, the Muslim world had digested that the United States had elected a black man, who lived in the most populous Islamic nation as a boy and who has a Muslim name.

Moving forward, I tend to think regular Muslims will be results oriented. Obama's speech today helped open their mind to great possibility. Now they'll want to see proof of what is possible.

In this vein, the “potential” is there. But that potential was there before Obama spoke as well. Muslims will reconsider their view of America when they have tangible steps that give them reason to reconsider. To think otherwise, is like discussing the Hispanic vote and presuming that merely a Latino Republican presidential candidate can win their allegiance. Hispanics distance from the GOP involves rhetoric, but policy far more.

It can only help that Al Jazeera's headline today was “Obama seeks new start with Muslims” or that the headline on Al Arabiya was “Obama cites Quran to reach Muslims from Egypt.” But I suspect those words, like the man himself, earns an open ear and mind. That matters. No other president has had the qualities that allow Obama to immediately break through cultural barriers.

But Muslims have concerns, issues, gripes and they want action. Some actions we can take, like pressuring Israel to freeze settlement construction. Down the road, the United States may push Israel to rollback those settlements. But the United States, for example, will never back a “right of return” for Palestinians or suddenly remove all combat forces from the region (and some Arab regimes would not want us to). In other words, there is only so much compromise to be had. This provides a ceiling on altering the Muslim word's view of the United States.

In another poll, Gallup found that Americans understand their disagreements. Eighty percent of the U.S. public believes people in Muslim countries have an unfavorable view of the United States. This number has remained steady since 2003. And, over the same period, only between a fifth and a quarter of Americans say they have a favorable view of Muslim nations.

Both the views of people in the Muslim world and Americans are partly skewed by stereotypes. But I also think there is an honest difference of opinion over some big issues. That does not mean there is not common ground. It only means that words can only go so far. I suspect Obama touched some hearts today. But I doubt he changed many minds.

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