New Jersey Gubernatorial Primary and LiveBlog
Posted by Sean Trende | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
10:22: With 3/4 of the vote in, it looks as though Christie will hold onto a solid lead to carry into the general election. Between this and the Virginia gubernatorial race, we should have two absolute barnburning elections for 2009. Can the New Jersey GOP break the curse of underperforming early polling? Is Virginia really a blue state? We'll find out in November!
10:04: 56% in, and the Newark Times-Ledger calls it for Christie. That's a relief for New Jersey Republicans, since Christie was largely considered the strongest candidate Republicans could field. That said, there's still the question of the margin. If this ends up under 10%, the argument is that Christie has work to do to solidify his Republican base, and Lonegan may cause some problems by withholding an endorsement or negotiating for a larger role in the general election campaign. We'll keep following this until we get a better sense of what the final spread will be.
9:54: With 50% in, Christie's lead is down to 13 points -- 55% to 42%. I think Christie will more likely than not pull this off, but I think it will be closer than he would have liked.
9:40: Once again, Christie's lead seems to have stabilized. 40% in at still a 15-point lead. We'll let you know what is up when 50% are in.
9:25: 1/3 of the precincts are in now. Lonegan continues to chip away at Christie's lead. 56%-42%.
9:13: 24% of the precincts in, and Lonegan is only 15% behind Christie. With 30% in Cumberland county, Lonegan is only 8% behind. This is not good news for Christie.
9:08: With 20% of the precincts in, Christie seems to have stabilized at 58%.
9:03: With 19/92 precincts in Cumberland County counted, this could be getting really interesting. Christie is leading, but only by 11 points. Franks won 53%-46% over Schundler in 2001 while losing by 15 statewide.
8:59: This could be getting interesting. 15% of the votes are in, and Christie is down to a 57%-40% lead. If this is within 10%, it will be portrayed as a blow to Christie.
8:44: With 6% in, Christie is down to 59%-39%.
8:35: With 2% reporting, Christie's lead has shrunk to 60-37%.
8:34: We have some early results from Cumberland County in the southeast. Christie is leading 72% to 26%. That is substantially better than the moderate candidate did in 2001 or 2005 (around 50% both times). Probably a good sign for Christie.
8:31: Jon Corzine is declared the winner with 34 precincts in. Chris Christie is ahead 2,209 votes to 1,147 votes (to 112 for Rick Merkt) with .5% of the precincts in. Obviously still early.
8:22: Three precincts are in (out of 6000+), and Christie's lead is holding. Of course, these precincts could all be in Christie's home town, so difficult to read too much into this
8:13PM: Preliminary results trickling in: Christie up 234 to 130. Corzine up 38 to 8.
8:00PM: Aaaaaand the polls are closed.
7:52PM: We're about 8 minutes from poll closing time. If anyone knows of a site where I can get county-by-county returns, please e-mail me at strende@realclearpolitics.com. I've found statewide results, but those aren't nearly as interesting!
New Jersey Republicans go to the polls today to elect a gubernatorial candidate (incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine faces token opposition). Polls close at 8pm.
You can read my in-depth preview here, but the bottom line is that public polling in the race has shown Attorney General Chris Christie leading former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan by double digits. But turnout is apparently extremely light, which at least in theory could help Lonegan pull off the upset.
If I can find a decent link, I plan to liveblog the results, starting at 8.

