John Micek & Scott Kraus of the Morning Call round up the latest thinking on whether Tom Ridge will jump into the Pennsylvania Senate race:

''I think he really does miss public service,'' said Leslie Gromis-Baker, Ridge's longtime fundraiser. ''He doesn't necessarily like the direction the party has been going in. And maybe running might help it to get back on the right track.'' [snip]

Bob Asher, the state's Republican national committeeman, said he met recently with Ridge and urged a run. ''Gov. Ridge is very serious about considering to run,'' Asher said, ''and he is weighing his options.''

Indeed, as Gromis-Baker's comment indicates, there's more at stake here than just a Senate seat. Specter's brand of centrism was a bridge too far for most Republicans (both in Pennsylvania and elsewhere) but Ridge is a different animal.

He is politically moderate, yet has enough standing and respect with members of his party - and perhaps most importantly, doesn't have the baggage of Specter's 29-year voting record - to win the primary and possibly the general as well.

That would obviously be a huge victory for a party that is rightly characterized as being on the ropes and in danger of becoming regionalized. Ash Khare, a Republican activist from Warren County, PA, who is friendly with Ridge makes the point in the Morning Call piece: ''The GOP is going no place right now. If we are to resurrect the GOP, we have to take [Specter's] Senate seat.''

I was remiss in not pointing out that yesterday RealClearSports had an exclusive piece  by David Steele, the Baltimore Sun sportswriter who was fired while he was in the press box in the middle of covering an Orioles game.

Today, RCS has an exclusive interview with the always entertaining sports columnist Jason Whitlock.

''I think you can certainly anticipate that [gay marriage] is in the future of the District of Columbia. How soon, we don't know. But this is a huge step forward in being -- having a law that recognizes marriages from other jurisdictions. And I do believe that nationally there's movement on this issue. Just in the past six to 12 months -- you just announced Maine being the latest state to grant same-sex marriages. I think, just as marriage used to prohibit people from different races from being able to marry each other in this country, and that was done away with; I think prohibiting same-sex marriage will be done away with also in this country.'' - DC Mayor Adrian Fenty

In theory, the switch made perfect sense. Arlen Specter would switch parties, have the primary field cleared for him, romp over Pat Toomey in the general election, then continue his Senate career as before. What could possibly go wrong?

Well, to start with, it increasingly looks as though Specter will have a serious primary opponent. While polling shows Specter is likely to win that matchup, it means he will (i) face the risk of losing, (ii) have to raise and spend money for the primary, and (iii) probably have to tack to the left to maintain his primary lead.

Then, speculation increased that former Republican Governor Tom Ridge would get into the race. The same polling linked to above shows Ridge thumping Pat Toomey in the primary, and then beating Specter in the general election (other polling shows the general election race quite close).

Now it appears that Harry Reid was unable to keep his promise to award Specter his seniority. According to CNN, a resolution today prevented Specter from retaining his seniority. This is a double blow for Specter. First, he can no longer argue to Pennsylvanians that his seniority is a benefit to the state.  This makes problem one and two above harder to overcome, as he loses one of the major arguments for his candidacy.  Second, Specter does not strike me as a man with a small ego, yet he has dropped from being the twelfth most senior senator to coming in right below Kirsten Gillibrand, who was in diapers when Specter was starting his political career. I would imagine that isn't easy to take. To make matters worse, there isn't much he can do about it; what can he do, switch parties back?

So far, Specter's best day as a Democrat was his first day.

A new poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race by the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies (May 3-4) shows Tom Ridge with a massive lead over Pat Toomey among Republican primary voters:

Republicans
Ridge 60
Toomey 23
Undecided 16

Among Democratic primary voters, Arlen Specter holds a similarly massive lead over Joe Sestak:

Democrats
Specter 57
Sestak 20
Undecided 22

In hypothetical general election match ups, Specter beats Toomey by nine but loses to Ridge by seven:

Specter (D) 49
Toomey (R) 40
Undecided 10

Ridge (R) 48
Specter (D) 41
Undecided 10

These results come on the heels of the Quinnipiac survey released on Monday showing Specter leading Ridge by just 3 points.

Tom is right -- that is must-see T.V.  But to truly appreciate the stakes, I think you need to consider the recent polling for the next UK election.  The Tories presently lead Labour by about twenty points.  They haven't trailed in a poll since January of 2008, and have led in the vast majority of polls taken since David Cameron was elected Tory leader.  The next election must be held by June 3, 2010, so Prime Minister Gordon Brown is running out of time to turn things around, and David Cameron has every reason to press his advantage (especially since the Tories probably have to win by about 5 points to end up with a plurality in parliament).  You can see the calculation for yourself by clicking "make your prediction" at this site, but the result of a 20-point Tory win would be a 200-seat pickup, a greater drubbing than Tony Blair's "New Labour" inflicted on the Tories in 1997 (though the margin would be somewhat smaller).

I also have to ask myself -- if we had a similar program in the United States, (which as Tom notes, was promised by John McCain) could I really see any of our elected party leaders of the last few decades performing particularly well here?  Nancy Pelosi?  Dick Gephardt?  Denny Hastert?  I guess you would say Newt, Clinton and Reagan, but other than that, we'd have to have some different leaders (I don't think Obama's slow, professorial approach would go over well <i>in this particular forum</i>).

A must watch four-minute clip of hand-to-hand political combat between a Labour PM who is under siege and an aggressive Tory Leader.

Imagine if the fireworks if we did this in America. If McCain had won the election, I wonder whether he would have made good on his campaign promise to bring PMQ's to the US Congress.

Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D), running for re-election, and both leading Democratic candidates for Senate would all be favored over their Republican counterparts if the general election were today, according to a new Quinnipiac poll (April 28-May 4, 1079 RV, MoE +/- 3%).

In the Dem primary for Senate, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher holds a 4-point lead over Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner.

Governor
GOP Primary
Mike DeWine 35 (+3 vs. last poll, March 17)
John Kasich 23 (-4)
Kevin Coughlin 2 (nc)
Und 37 (nc)

General Election
Strickland 51 (nc vs. last poll, March 17)
Kasich 32 (+1)
Und 16 (+1)

Strickland 48 (-2 vs. last poll, March 17)
DeWine 36 (+2)
Und 14 (+2)

Senate
Dem Primary
Lee Fisher 20 (+2 vs. last poll, March 18)
Jennifer Brunner 16 (+2)
Tyrone Yates 4 (-2)
Und 59 (+13)

GOP Primary
Rob Portman 29 (-2 vs. last poll, March 18)
Mary Taylor 8 (-6)
Tom Ganley 8 (n/a)
Und 54 (+2)

General Election
Fisher 42 (+1 vs. last poll, March 18)
Portman 31 (-2)
Und 26 (+2)

Fisher 41 (nc vs. last poll, March 18)
Taylor 29 (-2)
Und 28 (+3)

Brunner 40 (+1 vs. last poll, March 18)
Portman 32 (-2)
Und 27 (+2)

Brunner 38 (nc vs. last poll, March 18)
Taylor 29 (-2)
Und 31 (+3)

In the latest edition of "polling not-so-bad-news-for-GOP-if-they-get-the-right-nominee," the University of New Hampshire poll shows former Senator John Sununu leading Representative Paul Hodes 46%-41% in the race for Judd Gregg's open seat.  If Gregg could be convinced to change his mind and run for re-election, he would win 52%-36%.

Of course, Gregg doesn't seem inclined (so far) to change his mind, and John Sununu hasn't declared for the seat.  In fact, the GOP doesn't have any declared candidates.  Still, its encouraging numbers for the GOP in a state that McCain lost by nine points only six months ago.

In other news, Carol Shea-Porter is almost upside-down in her approval rating.  Shea-Porter does have a strong GOP opponent in Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta.

Overall, the poll seems to be slanted somewhat toward Republicans -- it sampled 210 Obama voters and 199 McCain voters.  The numbers should be more like 225 Obama voters and 184 McCain voters.  Even adjusting for this, Gregg and Sununu would both be ahead.

Kyle links to polling showing David Paterson in deep trouble if Rudy Giuliani opts to challenge him.  This comes despite his recently publicized support for gay marriage, which seemed intended to bolster his standing among the Empire State's numerous liberals and Democrats.

As if to prove that everything he touches turns to lead, the same polling company (Marist) has released numbers showing Patterson's appointee to the Senate seat formerly held by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in similar trouble.  She trails former Republican Governor George Pataki 46%-38%, and leads relatively unknown representative Peter King by only 42%-31%.  The Pataki-Gillibrand matchup in particular shows weakness for Gillibrand: She loses fully a quarter of the state's liberals, trails among moderates 43-40%, and gathers only 19% of the conservative vote.  Looking at it by region, she runs even in New York City, and gets blown out 51-29 in the suburbs.  The only thing keeping her in the game is the narrow 45-39 margin Pataki holds upstate.

It seems unlikely that these number will hold (especially the NYC numbers), Gillibrand is a new Senator, she has not been given a full opportunity to raise her profile, and none of these GOPers have actually declared.

Of course, Gillibrand might not even make it that far.  Gillibrand only leads Representative Carolyn McCarthy in a hypothetical primary by 36%-31%.