Multiple news outlets are reporting that the Supreme Court of California has upheld Proposition 8, a constitutional amendment which barred same sex marriage in the Golden State. That, for now, closes the debate on same sex marriage in California. I don't have any particular thoughts on the merits of the legal ruling -- which I keep separate from the policy arguments for same sex marriage -- but I think now might be a good time for supporters of same sex marriage or civil unions (I count myself among those ranks) to pause and consider some strategic issues.

This weekend I finally got a chance to read the annual Pew Survey that David Paul Kuhn discussed here. I was particularly struck by the last chart in the social issues polling section, found here.

There are three key "flex" points in the trendline for same-sex marriage support, where support for same-sex marriage stops rising and turns sharply downward. One cannot help but notice that two of those three "flex" points coincide with highly-publicized Court decisions: The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court's decision in 2003 legalizing gay marriage in that state and the Supreme Court of California's 2008 decision legalizing gay marriage there. It is possible that there is simply a natural ceiling of 40% for support of gay marriage in this country for now, and what we see is simply movement within the error margins after the low-hanging fruit were picked off in the late 90s. But the timing of the peaks and valleys makes this seem like a pretty unlikely coincidence.

A large chunk of this country, call it 40%, won't ever be reconciled to the idea of gay marriage. Another chunk, call it 30%, thinks it is the leading civil rights issue of our day. The key question, then, is how you reach out to the 30% of voters who are perhaps skeptical of gay marriage, but not completely closed off from it.

The Pew poll suggests that the answer is not with court decisions and not with the personal attacks of the sort we saw on Carrie Prejean. Regardless of the merits of those tactics in isolation, they appear to have been ineffective in altering the public's view on the issue -- at least in the way that proponents of same sex marriage would like. Future generations may well look back with horror on the idea that marriage was not extended to same-sex couples, but for now there's a reality that a majority of this country -- including a large number of people who are not born again Christians or Jerry Falwell followers -- needs to be brought around on that issue. The best way to bring them around is with persuasion, not shouting and court orders. Hopefully there will be a lull in litigation, and more efforts will be expended on the types of legislative victories we've seen recently in New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine.