My basic assessment of the Virginia Governor's race as a tossup remains unchanged; you can read a more thorough explanation here.  There are a few points, though, that need updating:

• As expected, Terry McAuliffe is beginning to break out of the Democratic pack.  His basic calculus for winning is the same:  Win Richmond/Hampton Roads; come in second in the three-man primary everywhere else.

• The Democratic Governor's Association isn't content to allow Republican nominee Bob McDonnell to relax, husband his resources and pad his lead while the Democrats lurch toward their June 9 primary.  The DGA has bought a half million dollars worth of advertisements attacking McDonnell for his opposition to Obama's stimulus plan.  The plan to draw McDonnell out and force him to begn spending has worked, as he plans to buy airtime soon.

• Turnout and enthusiasm remain a cause for concern for Democrats.   Much of the purported re-alignment in Virginia comes from Fairfax County and the Northern Virginia exurbs swinging toward the Democrats.  But since the 2008 election, Republicans have come within 20 votes of picking off Delegate Brian Moran's Alexandria-based seat, nearly won the Fairfax County Board of Supervisor's chair, and took a seat on the Fairfax County Board from the Democrats.  Last week, Democrats lost two seats on the Alexandria City Council -- a jurisdiction that gave Obama 72% of the vote in 2008.

• There's always been a danger that the massive Democratic turnout of 2008 was driven by a loathing of President Bush and a unique love of President Obama.  The million dollar question for Democrats has been what happens when those two stimuli are removed from the ballot.  Now obviously a Board of Supervisor's election won't generate the interest that a gubernatorial race will generate, but there are enough Northern Virginia datapoints here that a rather disconcerting trend for Democrats does seem to be developing here.