More On British Politics
Posted by Sean Trende | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Tom is right -- that is must-see T.V. But to truly appreciate the stakes, I think you need to consider the recent polling for the next UK election. The Tories presently lead Labour by about twenty points. They haven't trailed in a poll since January of 2008, and have led in the vast majority of polls taken since David Cameron was elected Tory leader. The next election must be held by June 3, 2010, so Prime Minister Gordon Brown is running out of time to turn things around, and David Cameron has every reason to press his advantage (especially since the Tories probably have to win by about 5 points to end up with a plurality in parliament). You can see the calculation for yourself by clicking "make your prediction" at this site, but the result of a 20-point Tory win would be a 200-seat pickup, a greater drubbing than Tony Blair's "New Labour" inflicted on the Tories in 1997 (though the margin would be somewhat smaller).
I also have to ask myself -- if we had a similar program in the United States, (which as Tom notes, was promised by John McCain) could I really see any of our elected party leaders of the last few decades performing particularly well here? Nancy Pelosi? Dick Gephardt? Denny Hastert? I guess you would say Newt, Clinton and Reagan, but other than that, we'd have to have some different leaders (I don't think Obama's slow, professorial approach would go over well <i>in this particular forum</i>).

