Fox Says 'No' to Obama

If you tune into Fox on Wednesday evening expecting to see President Obama's prime time press conference you'll end up disappointed, because they won't be airing it.


American Promises

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took questions in a town hall style meeting in Iraq this weekend. Full transcript here.

This exchange was notable:

QUESTION: William Worda (ph), activist in media and human rights. Following the situation in United State, we know that the new Administration in – of USA now engaged in the internal issues, especially economy. And it's – looks like to us that the situation of Iraq is not so important or it's not in the same level of importance for the new Administration.I would like to ask whether this policy is a kind of reprieve or a kind of making another policy different for Iraq?

SECRETARY CLINTON: Let me assure you and repeat what President Obama said. We are committed to Iraq. We want to see a stable, sovereign, self-reliant Iraq. But we know we're coming into office when there is a transition underway. The prior administration agreed to withdraw our troops and we support that. We want to do it in a responsible and careful way. And we also want to expand our work with the people and Government of Iraq in other areas of concern to help the government, to help the rule of law, to help the civil society. And so we are very committed, but the nature of our commitment may look somewhat different because we're going to be withdrawing our combat troops over the next few years.

It seems to me that this position is only tenable insofar as the security situation in Iraq does not deteriorate substantially. What happens if, after the Iraqi elections are held and the U.S. begins to make good on withdrawal pledges, the security situation inside Iraq worsens?

The Obama administration has promised the American people that it will draw down U.S. combat troops from Iraq. They have, in the person of Secretary Clinton, just promised the Iraqis that we are committed to a "stable, sovereign, self-reliant" Iraq. These two promises can only be fulfilled if no large scale or sustained outbreaks of violence occur.

It's possible that the administration can keep both those promises. It's also possible that the time will come when they'll have to break faith with one of them. In such an instance, it would be useful to know which they value more: withdrawing troops or maintaining a stable Iraq.

(Cross posted at RCW's The Compass.)


WH Statement on AF1 Flight

Given all the attention generated by Air Force One's fly-by of the Statue of Liberty (including an outraged Mayor Bloomberg) the White House released the following statement from Louis Caldera, Director of the White House Military Office:

"Last week, I approved a mission over New York. I take responsibility for that decision. While federal authorities took the proper steps to notify state and local authorities in New York and New Jersey, it's clear that the mission created confusion and disruption. I apologize and take responsibility for any distress that flight caused."


Dem. Corps: Cong. Battleground at 100 Days

A new Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research survey (March 25-29) tested voters in the 40 most marginal Democrat-held congressional districts and 15 most marginal Republican-held districts, and found good news for Democrats.

The 40 Democratic incumbents lead their generic Republican challengers by an average of 13 points. The Dem incumbents break the all-important 50% threshold even in the most vulnerable Democratic districts.

In the 15 most marginal Republican-held districts, the GOP incumbents lead their generic Democratic challengers by just 6 points.

What's helping Democrats in these marginal districts? "At the moment, the tide is still helping Democrats, with a good plurality saying they want to reelect their Democratic representative because they will fight for change, while in the Republican seats, a plurality says they want to vote in 2010 for a Democrat who will work with President Obama," the survey reports.

The survey looked into support for the president's budget as well, and found that 52% of voters in the marginal GOP districts support it, while 43% oppose the budget plan.


CNN: Obama Approval at 63%

New poll from CNN/Opinion Research shows President Obama with a 63% approval rating, with one out of three disapproving of the job he's doing as president.  CNN polling director Keating Holland noted an interesting trend, saying, "Now that Obama is president, the number who agree with his views on the issues has gone down, while the number who say he has the right personal qualities has gone up."

With only a couple of major polls left to weigh in with results on the President's 100 day assessment (CBS News/NY Times will be out in a couple of hours which will leave USAT/Gallup as the other oustanding big boy), Obama's job approval rating in the RCP Average stands at 62.0%, with individual polls varying from a low of 55% (Marist, Rasmussen) to a high of 69% (ABC News/Washington Post)


More Colorado Polling

Public Policy Polling released data that indicate that Democratic Governor Bill Ritter of Colorado trails former Representative Scott McInnis by seven points (48-41) and leads State Senate Minority Leader Josh Perry by only two (42-40).  Worse still for Ritter, his approval rating is upside down at 41-49.

Public Policy Polling has released a series of polls showing bad results in Colorado for President Obama, Senator Bennett, and now Governor Ritter.  If these numbers are correct, this marks an astonishing turnabout for Democrats in a state that had been the keystone of their proposed re-alignment.  For some perspective, consider that Ritter won election two years ago against a top-tier Republican (Representative Bob Beauprez) by a stunning seventeen points.

Apparently the source of the Democrats' weakness is lower approval ratings among Hispanics.  This is consistent with Jay Cost's and my finding that Colorado Hispanics actually did not move much toward Democrats in the last cycle, unlike Hispanics in other Western states.  This is an intriguing finding, and I'm not quite certain what to make of it.

Of course, Ritter's saving grace may be that, while these two Republicans poll well against him, the only actual Republican in the race is former Representative and Presidential Candidate Tom Tancredo.  One would expect that he will not perform particularly well among Colorado Hispanics.


Schakowsky Ramps Up

Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times has the scoop on Illinois Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky's ramping up of a potential bid for the United States Senate. According to Sweet, Schakowsky recently commissioned a survey from Democratic pollster Celinda Lake  (April 19-22, 600 Dem LV, MoE +/-4%) showing her with a slight lead over her two main rivals, State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and the anemic incumbent Roland Burris:

Schakowsky 24%
Giannoulias 22%
Burris 18%
Undecided 36%

Schakowsky told Sweet she will make a final decision by June 8.


Dueling Polls Far Apart on Obama Approval

Two new polls are 14 points apart regarding President Obama's job approval. A Washington Post/ABC News poll (April 21-24, 1072 A) finds 69% approving of the way Obama is handling the job of president, while 55% say they approve in a new Marist poll (April 21-23, 975 RV).

With the dueling polls included, Obama now has a 61.9% RCP Average approval rating.

In the Post's issue-specific approval questions, Obama received his highest rating for his handling of "the situation in Iraq" (71%) and his lowest for "the situation involving the big U.S automakers" (41%). The approval rating for his handling of international affairs (67%) has gone up 5 points since last month.

The Marist poll finds that 68% believe Obama is "honest and trustworthy," and 64% think he's fulfilling his campaign promises. 59% think Obama is moving the country in the right direction. A similar question in the Post poll found 50% believe things in the country are generally moving in the right direction.


Quote of the Day

"It's been quite a while since I've been in the mainstream.''- Barnett Hibnick, a self-described 'unabashedly liberal' lawyer from Miami, quoted in today's Herald over her amazement that President Obama is finding majority support for "aggressive government action to correct social and economic problems."


Two-Thirds Want Coleman to Concede

Nearly six months after the Minnesota Senate election, a Minneapolis Star Tribune poll (April 20-23, 1,042 A, +/- 4%) finds that 64% believe Republican Norm Coleman "should accept the recount trial court's April 13 verdict that Democrat Franken won the race by 312 votes."

If Coleman wins his appeal at the state Supreme Court, 57% think Al Franken should appeal. However, 73% think Coleman should concede if he loses his appeal, rather than take it to the U.S. Supreme Court. Just 28% think Coleman's appeal to the state Supreme Court is "appropriate."

The breakdown of respondents: 20% GOP, 36% Dem, 37% independents, 6% no party ID.



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