Virginia state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) waited one day longer than his gubernatorial primary opponents to announce his 1st quarter fundraising total, and his campaign released somewhat surprising numbers.

Deeds raised $600,000 in the first three months of the year, surpassing his total from the previous six months. Deeds was working from a disadvantage, as members of the Legislature are prohibited from raising money during the legislative session, which lasted 46 days this year.

Brian Moran resigned his General Assembly seat so he could keep up with former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe, a seasoned fundraiser.

"I am excited to announce that I was able to raise more money in 44 days than the previous 6 months -- and now my campaign has $1.2 million cash-on-hand," Deeds stated in an e-mail announcement.

Deeds's announcement certifies that McAuliffe raised the most money inside Virginia. Although his in-state donations accounted for just 18 percent of his 1st quarter fundraising, McAuliffe raised $760,000 from Virginia donors, while Moran raised $720,000.

Deeds said 97 percent of his 1st quarter donations came from inside Virginia.

With the primary exactly two months away, McAuliffe also leads in cash-on-hand with $2.5 million; Deeds has $1.2 million and Moran has $825,000.

On the eve of Easter weekend, Gallup heavyweight Lydia Saad reported Thursday that the rate of regular church attendance by Catholics and Protestants is now equal. That marks a drastic decline in American Catholic religiosity.

One of the vestiges of American political commentary is the discussion of Catholics as a separate and unified voting bloc. That was once true, especially in the days of Joe McCarthy and John F. Kennedy. Religious Catholics today though vote more similar to religious Protestants than fellow Catholics who rarely attend mass.

For scholars of religion, the modern faith fault line is not denomination but church attendance. Weekly attendance is the best, though still imperfect, indicator of whether religion is a driving force behind a voters' politics rather than a peripheral aspect of their lives.

Gallup data shows that 45 percent of Catholics and Protestants say they attended church in the past week. That marks a Catholic attendance decline of 30 percentage points since 1955, while the Protestant rate has slightly risen. In other words, Catholics are no longer the more orthodox body in American life.

This is far larger than politics. At first blush, the finding may seem to substantiate the mistaken impression of late that American religiosity is fading, notably bolstered recently by the American Religious Identification Survey 2008 (ARIS). The more accurate statement is that the rate of secularism is growing while the portion of passively or somewhat religious Americans is declining. On the other hand, the portion of religious Christians is generally unchanged.

True, as ARIS found, the number of Americans who describe themselves as Christian has fallen from 86 to 76 percent between 1990 and 2008 while the secularists have doubled, from 8 to 15 percent of the population. But the study also found no decline and some rise in those identifying as Pentecostal, evangelical or born again. It also found the most significant identification decline in mainline Protestants. It's no coincidence that mainlines are less likely to attend weekly services as well.

The portion of voters who attend church at least once a week has held remarkably stable over the past half century, bobbing around four in ten. This stability is in part due to the slender increase in Protestant weekly attendance, after declining until the mid '60s. Weekly church attenders also have a higher turnout rate than the average voter.

Gallup found that the decline in Catholic religiosity largely occurred between 1955 and 1975 and happened most precipitously among the young. These two decades of course bookended the rise and decline of the counter culture. No less, this is the period that particularly Catholics and ethnic whites ascended to the upper and middle class--only for their household incomes to stagnate by the mid '70s.

Where does this leave us today in political terms however? The God Gap is still a core divide in American politics.

Indeed, secular voters have become more Democratic in recent political cycles. Last year 67 percent of those who never attend church backed the Democratic nominee, the same as in 2006. But that marks a 7-point rise since 2004 and a 12-point rise since 2002. However in 2000, 61 percent of secular voters favored Al Gore. The secular move toward Democrats is therefore notable but not drastic. Seculars are 16 percent of voters today, a 2 point increase in eight years.

Meanwhile, while Barack Obama made gains with minority regular church attendees, likely due to issues of racial identity and/or immigration, the three in ten voters who are white weekly attenders have remained firm in their politics in recent years: only 29 percent supported the last three Democratic presidential candidates. Fifty-seven percent of born-again or evangelical Christians also backed the Republican in 2008, as they roughly did in 1980 as well.

So even amid Catholics' waning worship, in political terms American religiosity is what it was--a powerful force in U.S. politics

Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway (D) announced today that he will seek the Democratic nomination for Senate next year. Conway's entrance, the Louisville Courier-Journal reports, indicates that state Auditor Crit Luallen and Rep. Ben Chandler will back his candidacy rather than run themselves.

Conway becomes the second major Democratic candidate to announce he will challenge Sen. Jim Bunning (R). Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, whom Bunning narrowly defeated for re-election in 2004, announced his candidacy in January.

Bunning is seen as vulnerable by both parties, and a poll released yesterday solidified that perception. The PPP poll found Bunning trailing Conway by 9 points and Mongiardo by 7 points.

In the 2007 elections, Conway won the attorney general race by 21 points. Now-Gov. Steve Beshear, with Mongiardo as his runningmate, defeated incumbent Ernie Fletcher by 17 points.

In 2008, Democrat Bruce Lunsford gave Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell a run for his money, though McConnell came out with a 6-point win.

Chris Christie has launched his first TV ad of the New Jersey gubernatorial race this morning, which plays up his experience as U.S. Attorney and pledges to fix a broken state.

It's partly a biographical ad, but rather than warm and fuzzy, there's a "Law & Order" feel to the narration and music -- perhaps fitting the tough image the campaign tries to project.

"As US Attorney Chris Christie went after corrupt politicians," the narrator says. "He tracked down child pornographers across the globe, and prosecuted corrupt business executives. Today, Chris Christie runs for Governor."

Though he still has a Republican primary to get through, Christie targets Gov. Jon Corzine's tax policy in the ad. Taxes will likely be one of the top issue in the campaign. It does not mention that Christie is a Republican, saying instead that he'll fix New Jersey "just as he did as US Attorney, with leadership, independence, determination."

It's still early in the campaign, but the spot comes later than the first ad of the 2005 campaign did. Then, businessman Doug Forrester actually went on the air in November of 2004. But that year, the Republican primary was a bit more crowded and competitive.

The campaign says the ad will air in both the New York and Philadelphia markets -- expensive turf, which makes any campaign in the Garden State difficult. The campaign says that with strong fundraising, it is right on track with when it planned to go on TV.

Here's the ad:

Terry McAuliffe, the longtime fund-raiser for Bill and Hillary Clinton, reported a remarkable $4.2 million in first quarter fundraising for his Virginia gubernatorial campaign. Perhaps under-reported, however, was that just 18 percent -- $760,000 -- of his total take came from in-state donors.

The lack of emphasis on in-state donations in the campaign's report stands in stark contrast to its fundraising announcement in January, when the campaign touted the $1 million it had raised from inside Virginia in the previous two months.

As an example of the out-of-state fundraising advantage he has over rival Democrats Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran, McAuliffe took in nearly half of the amount he raised in Virginia at just one Manhattan event in January -- where Bill Clinton and Democratic bundler Hassan Nemazee helped him raise $350,000.

By comparison, Gov. Tim Kaine never took in more than $200,000 from any out-of-state locality during his entire campaign.

Whether or not McAuliffe, the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, raised more in any other one state -- such as New York, Florida or California -- than he did in Virginia won't be known until financial reports are turned in April 15.

Moran, a former state delegate, reported raising 90 percent of his $800,000 first quarter take from in-state donors. Deeds, a state senator, has yet to announce his first quarter numbers.

Terry McAuliffe's campaign announced raising $4.2 million in the first quarter this year, and he now has $2.5 million left to spend over the next two months before the June 9 Democratic primary for Virginia governor.

McAuliffe's haul trounces that of rival Democrat Brian Moran, who announced raising $800,000 in the first quarter -- more than his campaign had raised in the entire second half of 2008. State Sen. Creigh Deeds has not yet announced his fundraising numbers.

The Moran campaign touts their numbers as being plenty to win with, and continues to focus on its "grassroots campaign" and local elected official endorsements. The Moran camp also makes sure to note that Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) was easily outraised during the 2006 Democratic primary, but still came out victorious. Webb spoke about his campaign in a February interview with RealClearPolitics. Here is a sample:

"I got out in a 10-year-old Jeep, put 36-, 37,000 miles on this old Jeep with my radio operator from Vietnam as my driver. We hit three town hall meetings a night. And I don't think we spent $100,000 in the whole primary. We didn't have one ad -- radio or TV. Not one. It was all word of mouth. Harris Miller had more than a million dollars and ran ads and did a lot of other things."

A new poll finds that Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) would be vulnerable against a number of potential Democratic candidates in 2010, giving more ammunition to those Republicans who hope to field a new candidate in the Bluegrass State.

A Public Policy Polling survey also finds that the two-term incumbent has just a 28 percent approval rating, with 54 percent disapproving. Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson, mentioned as the most likely Bunning alternative for the GOP, has a fav/unfav rating of 46/19, with 36 percent unsure. The survey was conducted on April 2 and 3, surveying 610 voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percent.

Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who narrowly lost to Bunning in 2004 when he was a little-known state senator, is the only Democrat officially running. But the poll also tests Bunning against state Aud. Crit Luallen, Atty. Gen. Jack Conway, and U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler. State Senate President David Williams (R) is  included as another potential Republican candidate.

General Election Matchups

(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Chandler 47 / 71 / 22 / 28
Bunning 33 / 14 / 54 / 41

Conway 42 / 64 / 16 / 28
Bunning 33 / 14 / 54 / 43

Luallen 42 / 64 / 18 / 22
Bunning 34 / 13 / 56 / 48

Mongiardo 43 / 66 / 17 / 30
Bunning 36 / 14 / 61 / 43

Fav/Unfav
Bunning 28 / 54
Grayson 46 / 19
Williams 28 / 41

Chandler 38 / 28
Conway 40 / 21
Luallen 43 / 21
Mongiardo 41 / 34

Grayson does seem to be a stronger candidate for Republicans if Bunning steps aside, but even he trails at this stage against several of the Democrats.

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions said today that he is confident Republican Jim Tedisco will emerge victorious when all absentee ballots have been counted in the New York 20th District special election. Tedisco currently leads by 17 votes, with absentee ballot counting beginning today in some counties.

"Following the final tally of votes from Election Day, we are confident that Jim Tedisco's current lead will increase given the Republican advantage among absentee ballots," Sessions stated in a press release.

Sessions is basing this on the number of absentee ballots returned from members of both parties -- 3,111 Republican and 2,394 Democrat. Sessions leaves out, however, the 1,221 ballots returned by those who are not registered with either party.

Members of the Conservative Party, which endorsed Tedisco, returned 77 ballots. The Independence and Working Families parties, which endorsed Democrat Scott Murphy, had members return a total of 168 ballots.

The biggest question may be who wins the majority of the 976 absentee ballots from voters not registered with any of those five parties.

Democrats predicted a 210-vote win for themselves -- based on their vote percentage in each county compared to the percentage of absentee ballots from each county -- in a memo that was leaked last week.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will not challenge Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) next year -- perhaps a sign that her sights are set on the building 16 blocks up Pennsylvania Avenue from the U.S. Capitol.

From the Anchorage Daily News:

Gov. Sarah Palin plans to raise money for the re-election campaign of Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, and hopes to end speculation she might challenge Murkowski in the primary for the U.S. Senate next year.

"The governor has no intention of running for the senator's seat in 2010," Palin spokeswoman Meg Stapleton said Tuesday. "(Palin) thinks the senator is doing a great job and that's why she's looking forward to hosting a fundraiser for her."

Murkowski, in her first full term in the Senate, was appointed to the seat in December 2002 by her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski, who had just resigned from the Senate after winning the election for governor. Murkowski was elected to a full term in 2004 with 49% of the vote.

Palin, of course, defeated Murkowski's father in the 2006 Republican primary for governor.

Gov. Jon Corzine (D) again finds himself with a 40% job approval rating and trailing former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) by 9 points in a new Fairleigh Dickinson poll (March 30-April 5, 809 RV, +/- 3.5%). Just 33% say they have a favorable opinion of Corzine.

Christie (R) 42 (+1 vs. last poll, March 4)
Corzine (D) 33 (+1)
Und 25 (-2)

Corzine also trails Franklin Township Mayor Brian Levine (34%-33%), who had trailed Corzine by 11 points last month. Corzine continues to lead the other two Republicans tested against him: Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan (37%-36%) and Assemblyman Rick Merkt (37%-33%).

Christie holds a wide lead in a potential GOP primary race: Christie 43%, Lonegan 21%, Merkt 2%, Levine 2%.