The race to replace Congresscritter-turned-Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is still a nailbiter, with Democrat Scott Murphy up by 25 votes on Republican James Tedisco.  Politico reports:

The 10:30 a.m. tally shows Murphy with 77,907 votes and Tedisco with 77,882 votes.

The count still doesn't include absentee ballots from Saratoga County (a Tedisco stronghold), Washington County (a Murphy stronghold), and only shows 64 absentees counted from Murphy's home base of Warren County.

Tedisco is appparently reporting that he will gain about 120 votes from Saratoga county, with the count there about halfway concluded. Given that Washington and Warren counties combined cast about half as many votes as Saratoga County, while favoring Murphy by margins similar to Tedisco's margin in Saratoga, that would seem to be ominous news for Murphy.

But we must be cautious not to commit the ecological fallacy here, as far too many people who should know better have done.  Knowing how Saratoga and Washington/Warren counties voted in the general election really doesn't (necessarily) tell us much about how many people turned in absentee ballots, or how the absentees will break. You're dealing with a different subset of the electorate that could be more or less Republican, depending on how the parties targeted their GOTV efforts and how different demographics responded to those efforts.  So far the absentees seem to be breaking a few points more toward the Democrats than the counties as a whole, with Otsego county being slightly more Republican and Columbia county being considerably more Democratic.

In other words, this is still very much anyone's game.  Don't believe anything until the counting is done!