Obama Losing the Middle on His Budget?

Gallup released new numbers on Obama's budget yesterday, and while their headline reads "Amid Budget Battle, Americans' Views Hold Steady," that may not be exactly right.

Gallup provided breakdowns by party ID on those holding "positive" or "negative" views about Obama's budget, along with comparative data from a survey taken nearly one month ago on February 27-28.  As expected, stark differences in support exist by party, though there appears to have been a uniform downtick across party lines:

gallupbudget1

But Gallup also cut the data by ideology (self described "conservatives," "moderates," and "liberals"), and here we see a fairly noticeable difference between the groups:

gallupbudget2

As you can see, conservatives' opinions of Obama's budget remained virtually constant: they continue to have significantly more negative than positive feelings about it. Liberals, who started with overwhelmingly positive opinions of Obama's budget, now feel somewhat less positive but also have slightly less negative feelings about it as well.

But moderates were both eight points less positive and four points more negative about Obama's budget, a twelve point net swing over the past four weeks. That seems to be a signifcant shift among a slice of the electorate, and not totally compatible with Gallup's finding that Americans' views of Obama's budget "held steady" over the last month.



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