A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted on February 18-19 among 429 Republicans shows Sarah Palin with a slight edge over Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney as the preferred GOP nominee for 2012:

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin 29%
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 26%
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 21%
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal 9%
Someone else 10%
None/no one 4%
No opinion 2%

Republican men split more or less evenly among the top three choices, but Palin has a double digit lead among GOP women, winning 32% to Huckabee's 22% and 20% for Romney.

Obama's Iraq Straddle

President Obama aims to drawn down a sizable portion of U.S. combat forces in Iraq over the next 18 months. According to the New York Times, his plan has some bi-partisan buy-in:

Mr. McCain and other Republicans emerged from a meeting with Mr. Obama at the White House on Thursday evening reassured that the president's withdrawal plan is responsible and reasonable. After securing assurances from Mr. Obama that he would reconsider his plans if violence increases, Mr. McCain and the Republicans expressed cautious support.

In other words, the decision on the disposition of the U.S. military is actually in the hands of Iraq's various political actors and not the U.S. Should the Iraqis return to violence, the U.S., according to Obama, will be compelled to stay.

This has been the essential conceptual muddle with Obama's position on Iraq all along. He says he wants to end the war but he won't disavow the regional interests that have made leaving Iraq seem so daunting. Hence the caveats about leaving "responsibly."

Obama's aides tell the New York Times that "the path is not towards any sort of a Korea model... the path is towards reducing, in a fairly substantial way, U.S. forces in 2010 and then down to what's currently anticipated, down to zero, by the end of 2011.”

But how convincing is this pledge if it comes with the corollary that the withdrawal is predicated on the Iraqis playing nice?

As long as the security situation remains stable in Iraq, President Obama can skate by with this muddle. But should we face a return to violence on a larger scale (which is still possible given the country's history), his straddle becomes untenable. He will then need to tell the American people that his promise to end the war was actually subordinate to other Middle Eastern priorities or he can risk inciting a bi-partisan uproar and withdraw while Iraq burns.

(Cross posted at RCW's The Compass Blog.)

Is a Kindle knock-off the answer for newspapers struggling to turn their fortunes around? Hearst seems to think so.

After dipping below 60% Tuesday for the first time as president, Obama's approval rating has rebounded to 67% following a positive reception of his Address to Congress Tuesday night, Gallup reports.

"The speech certainly came at an opportune time for Obama, but a recovery was easily achievable because the decline in his approval rating was accompanied by an increase in the percentage of Americans expressing no opinion, rather than an increase in the proportion disapproving of his performance in office," writes Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones.

TOM ADDS: Obama's overall job approval in the RCP Average is 64.2%.

Looks like you (and me, and every other taxpayer in America) are going to be the proud owners of 36% of Citigroup! I've always wanted to be in the bank business, haven't you?

It reminds me of Kramer's unrealized dream:

Fourth quarter GDP growth, which was initially reported at -3.8%, has been revised downward to -6.2%. That's the worst GDP reading in 25 years.

Obama signals he's about to make another move that's sure to raise the hackles of the pro-life community. A month ago Obama, to the delight of the pro-choice movement and the consternation of pro-lifers, repealed the "Mexico City policy" that prevented U.S. aid from going to international health organizations that either perform abortions or promote the legalization of the procedure.

Obama made last month's policy reversal in a disctinctly low key way, signing the order in private late on a Friday evening. That was intrpreted by many as a fig leaf toward pro-lifers and a sign that Obama wasn't particularly interested in reigniting a full blown culture war.

That may very well be true, but the more moves President Obama makes on the policy front that are directly opposed by vast majorities of pro-life community, the more he's likely to find himself as a General in the culture wars, regardless of what kind of window dressing he puts on his decisions.

Sen. Robert Bennett (R-Utah), finishing up his third term, is polling below 50% against potential primary challengers, according to a new Research2000/DailyKos poll (Feb. 23-25, 600 LV, MoE +/- 4%). Against Democrats in a general election matchup, however, he appears safe.

Republican challengers tested against Bennett include Attorney General Mark Shurtleff and former Juab County Attorney David Leavitt, the brother of former Gov. Mike Leavitt. Democrats tested include former Jeopardy champion Ken Jennings and Rep. Jim Matheson.

GOP Primary
Bennett 44
Leavitt 23
Und 23

Bennett 46
Shurtleff 20
Und 34

General Election
Bennett 57
Jennings 21
Und 22

Bennett 55
Matheson 32
Und 13

Over at Politico, Charles Mathesian and Patrick O'Connor don't exactly answer the title question, but they offer an extended meditation on it.

(more...)

Both incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) lead in a potential general election matchup in the 2010 race for Texas governor, according to a new PPP poll (Feb. 18-20, 1409 LV, MoE +/- 2.6%).

However, Perry's lead over Democrat Tom Schieffer is smaller than Hutchison's, and he's polling below 50%. Hutchison's favorability rating (58%/31%) is much higher than Perry's (41%/48%) as well.

Perry 45
Schieffer 35
Und 19

Hutchison 54
Schieffer 30
Und 16