Gillespie Unplugged

A must read interview with Reason's Nick Gillespie over at Splice Today. I especially liked his response when asked if Reason would change during the Age of Obama:

Reason in all its forms—print, web, and video—was an early and persistent critic of the Bush administration and the idiotic GOP Congress that busted the budget while layering on more levels of regulation and federalized frosting than you'd get in a Cheesecake Factory dessert. Based on his first days in office, during which he backed away from his own incredibly mild ethical rules, bombed Pakistan, and bumped up the amount of his own bailout plan, I'm sure we'll be equally antagonistic to the Obama presidency. And let's not get started yet on the Democratic Congress, which, like the stock market of late, demonstrates that however low you think you are, you can always go lower.

Who is in the White House, the statehouse, anywhere but the outhouse (unless you're Larry Craig, and even then), matters a lot to Reason. We're libertarians here, we support "Free Minds and Free Markets," which means two things when thinking about politics.

First and foremost, we believe that politics—a rotten, zero-sum game in which the winners rub the losers' face in dog shit like a schoolyard bully—should not be the primary focus of human activity. It should be squeezed into the smallest box possible so that individuals and the communities they form can get on with far more interesting and exciting and liberatory stuff.

Second, you need to keep a close eye on the adult version of the student council presidents and the bright boys who know the one best way to do anything and will force you to live their way or the highway. So we'll be pursuing an endless and sleepless critique of government action at all levels (I hate my local zoning board more than I hate the federal Department of Veterans Affairs) while also showing what people do with the economic, lifestyle, and cultural freedom they still have. However bad the political arena is, we've got this terrible, terrible freedom to make and consume the culture we want. That's worth remembering, celebrating, and expanding. Economic and foreign policy crises are not the be-all and end-all. Remember the 70s, when we had the equivalent of an economic Chernobyl—or at least a Three-Mile Island—going on for years? By the end of the decade, we were far freer than at the start. You can look it up.

Read the rest.


GDP Fell 3.8% in Q4

More grim economic news:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent. [snip]

The decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures, equipment and software, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by positive contributions from private inventory investment and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

All is not lost, however, as you can see from this BEA chart showing the blue chip forecast for 2009 which suggests that we may have reached a turning point - even though there's still some pain ahead:

beachart

UPDATE: The White House released a statement from Christina Romer, the Chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors:

Real GDP fell at an annual rate of 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008.  This was the largest one-quarter fall since 1982 and the second consecutive quarter of real GDP decline.  A substantial increase in real inventory investment (from a large negative number in 2008Q3 to a small positive number in 2008Q4) mitigated the overall decline somewhat.  Real final sales, GDP less the change in private inventories, declined at an annual rate of 5.1%.   The large decline confirms the evidence from other indicators, such as payroll employment and the unemployment rate, that the U.S. economy continues to contract severely.  Aggressive, well-designed fiscal stimulus is critical to reversing this severe decline and putting the economy on the road to recovery and improved long-run growth.

The decline in GDP was spread throughout the economy.  Personal consumption expenditures declined at an annual rate of 3.5%, which was similar to the fall in the third quarter of 2008; these falls were the largest since 1980. Nonresidential fixed investment fell 19.1% and exports fell 19.7%.  The decline in motor vehicle output was particularly severe, accounting for 2.0 percentage points of the overall fall in GDP of 3.8%.   This widespread decline emphasizes that the problems that began in our housing and financial sector have spread to nearly all areas of the economy.   Immediate action to support both the financial sector and overall demand is essential.


Not Reaching for the Stars

Interesting tidbit on the stimulus bill that passed the House last night: advocates of NASA were asking for up to $2 billion - a mere .24% of the overall $819 billion package - for "space exploration and accelerated construction of the next generation of manned spacecraft."

In the end, NASA was allotted $600 million by the House - none of it for space-related activities. The biggest chunk of the money, $400 million, went to "put more scientists to work doing climate change research." Another $50 million was earmarked to repair NASA facilities in the Houston area that were damaged by Hurricane Ike.

All is not lost, however. NASA advocates are hoping Florida Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, a former astronaut whose state also has deep ties to NASA, will be able to push through higher levels of spending for NASA in the Senate version of the stimulus bill and shephard them safely through the conference committee.


Davos, Man

Jeff Jarvis is in Davos and doesn't appear to be too impressed:

Maybe in some session at Davos or over some dinner table, someone's discussing substantial ideas and plans for ending the mess. But I haven't been there. [snip]

I'm talking with other people who are getting more depressed as the day goes on and here, I think, is why: We are surrounded by the leaders who fucked it up: bankers, marketeers, regulators, and the press. They were in charge. That's what Davos is: the people in charge. So who's to say that we're going to find the answers in Davos? Well, the people in Davos will. But I think the evidence is strong that the answer is not here.

I'm going skiing.

For more on Davos, see Anatole Kaletsky, John Gapper, and Timothy Garton Ash.


Reaching the Finish Line

Greg Bobrinskoy has an update on the race for RNC Chair, which will take place tomorrow.


Blago's Coda

Rod Blagojevich has been in New York for the last two days trashing the impeachment proceedings in the Illinois State Senate as a "kangaroo court." But in about 30 minutes he will go before that body and offer a "closing argument" in his defense. I cannot wait.

Senators are predicting a unanimous vote. Apparently, his things from the Governor's mansion have already been boxed up and the swearing in ceremony for Lt. Governor Pat Quinn is all set to go.

The whole thing has the feel of an episode of American Idol where they ask the contestant who just got kicked off the show to sing one more time for the crowd as the credits roll.


Quote of the Day

"The philosopher Diogenes is said to have wandered the streets of Athens with a lamp, looking for an honest man. Had he lived in Hollywood, he'd have needed two searchlights, a pack of bloodhounds, and a net." - Andrew Klavan, introducing his review of Roger L. Simon's new book.


Preparing for the Worst

Just how bad is the economy going to get? Nobody knows, but even companies like Boeing, which believes its prospects for this year are pretty darn good, is laying off 10,000 workers to protect itself against the possibility that we may have a ways to go before we reach bottom.


This Just In...

Taxpayers still hate the bank bailout.


Moscow plays coy

So, Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama talk on the phone and agree that the U.S. and Russia need to do something about "stopping the drift in U.S.-Russian relations."  According to the White House, ""The presidents agreed that, as they were both new leaders from a post-Cold War generation they have a unique opportunity to establish a fundamentally different kind of relationship between the two countries."   Well, that's nice, but age isn't everything, and the suggestion that Obama and Medvedev -- Putin's appointed successor and Mini-Me -- are two of a kind is a little iffy.  Still, the rhetoric is predictable.

Now, what about the practice?  Let's see.  First, a leading Russian news agency reports that Russia is halting deployment of the Iskander missiles that were Medvedev's post-election-day welcoming gift to Obama, as an "olive branch" in response to the Unew administration "not pushing ahead" with missile shield installation in Poland and the Czech Republic.  Then, the Kremlin doesn't confirm the report and one anonymous official says it's "pure fiction."  And all this means... what?  Diplomacy á la Russe?

(more...)



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