CNN Poll: Obama-Blago Ties

A new CNN/Opinion Research national poll (Dec. 19-21, 1013 A) finds mixed results when asking whether Americans believe aides to President-elect Obama did anything inappropriate in regards to their dealings with Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

-43% say Obama aides did nothing seriously wrong
-36% say aides did something unethical, but not illegal
-12% say aides did something illegal


ABC/WaPo Poll: Make Changes, Obama

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that a vast majority of Americans want some changes in major public policy areas. The presidential election appeared to show this as well, but this poll (Dec. 11-14, 1003 A) finds what specific issues the public wants President-elect Obama to act on.

According to the poll, Americans want Obama to: withdraw troops from Iraq within 16 months (70%); make major changes in the U.S. health care system (77%); implement policies to reduce global warming (75%); and increase federal spending on children's health insurance (74%).

Also included was requiring electric companies to include the use of renewable energy sources (84%), increasing the federal funding of embryonic stem-cell research (52%), and imposing a time period during which banks cannot foreclose on delinquent mortgages (66%). Just 40% said they wanted Obama to close the Guantanomo U.S. military prison.


Talk Is Cheap, But Is It a Crime?

Good piece in the Daily Herald fleshing out the nuances of whether or not Governor Rod Blagojevich committed a crime by talking about doing deals in exchange for Obama's Senate Seat.

As US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald said at his initial news conference, "It is a crime in and of itself for people to scheme to violate the law, that is called conspiracy."

But because no action was taken as a result of Blago's wheeling and dealing - Fitzgerald stepped in expressly to prevent a quid pro quo from occurring - we enter a gray area where Grand Jurors will be asked to look to intent.

In the Herald article DePaul Law Professor Len Cavise uses a colorful analogy to draw the distinction:

A crime generally occurs, he says, when someone acts on the talk and that includes directing someone else to carry the crime out.

"It is like a mob boss who says, 'Geez, I really like that guy dead.' That is not a crime," Cavise says. "But if he says, 'Go kill that guy,' that is a crime."

Blago is more of a common street thug than a mob boss, and he was caught on tape shaking people down not ordering a hit. Nevertheless, it'll be up to a jury to decide whether he committed a crime or is just guilty of being a first class jerk with a big - and vulgar - mouth.


Minnesota Senate Update

The Minneapolis Star Tribune says Al Franken leads by 251 votes, while the St. Paul Pioneer-Press says he's up by 260 votes. Either way, the winner still won't be known until 2009.

From the Pioneer-Press:

Here's the U.S. Senate recount upside: 2.9 million ballots have been counted and awarded.

The downside: Several thousand overall remain in dispute.

And those thousands almost certainly will keep the race from being decided until 2009.

From the Star Tribune:

The state Canvassing Board will wait until Tuesday to meet again to try to determine a winner in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race between DFLer Al Franken and Republican incumbent Norm Coleman.

Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said Sunday that the delay was caused by the amount of time it is taking to reallocate the roughly 5,000 ballot challenges that were withdrawn by the two men.
[snip]
Still at issue is the fate of an estimated 1,600 absentee ballots that were improperly rejected by election judges. The two campaigns and state officials have until Dec. 31 to figure out which of those rejected ballots will be counted.


NY Sen Poll: 37% Say Kennedy Qualified

Sixty-seven percent of New Yorkers have a favorable view of Caroline Kennedy, according to a new poll from Rasmussen, but only 37% say she is qualified to be a member of the United States Senate. Even fewer voters, a mere 16%, say she would not be under consideration for the position were it not for her famous last name.


CO Senate Match Ups

PPP is out with hypothetical general election match ups for the Colorado Senate:

John Hickenlooper 54
Bill Owens 40

John Salazar 52
Owens 43

Hickenlooper 54
Tom Tancredo 37

Salazar 53
Tancredo 40


Hawaii 2010 Sen. Poll: Inouye +11

A new Research2000/DailyKos poll finds Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) leading Gov. Linda Lingle (R) by 11 points in a potential 2010 Senate matchup.

(Dec. 15-17, 600 LV)
Inouye 53
Lingle 42

The survey also tracked their favorable/unfavorable ratings, with Inouye at 58%/37% and Lingle at 53%/41%.

Inouye, first elected to the Senate in 1962, was recently tapped as the next chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Only once (in 1992) has he won re-election with less than 74% of the vote.


POTUS - Part II

Part two of our interview with President Bush is posted this morning. In it he talks about the role of the Internet and new media in politics, energy and the environment, and national security.

If you missed Part One of the interview, it's available here.


Another Day, Another Press Conference

President-elect Obama will hold today his fifth press conference in as many days. Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) is expected to be announced Transportation Secretary at the 1:15 p.m. CT event in Chicago.

Possibly joining LaHood at the event is former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, who is reportedly Obama's choice for Trade Representative, and Rep. Hilda Solis (D-Calif.), tapped for Labor Secretary.

Obama already announced this week his energy and environment team; the secretaries of Education, Agriculture and Interior; as well as the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission.


Honeymooning In Chicago

It's still early in the presidency of Barack Obama -- in fact, it hasn't even started -- so perhaps it's for the best that the American public hasn't yet ended his post-election honeymoon. Still, with the controversy surrounding his vacant Senate seat and an economy continuing to spiral downward, one can imagine his approval ratings would be less than spectacular. That couldn't be further from reality, however.

Polls released this week found that the public not only thinks Obama has done too little to explain the contacts he or his staff made with Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich regarding his Senate seat, a large number of people think he or his associates were actually involved. One in four in a Gallup survey guess that someone on his staff was engaged in illegal activity regarding the matter, while a Rasmussen poll found that 45 percent think either Obama or one of his top aides played a role in the scandal.

This surely would slam the cell door on your average politician's approval ratings, but apparently not Obama's. A Gallup poll taken over the weekend found that 68 percent are confident in Obama's ability to be a good president -- that's nearly his highest rating since Gallup began tracking it the day after the election. A Marist College poll released Wednesday found that 63 percent of registered voters approve of the job Obama's done on the transition, while 83 percent (including 76 percent of Republicans) think he's done as well or better than expected.

This is a honeymoon anybody would love to go on. But as all newlyweds soon find out, they don't last forever.



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