On a conference call with reporters, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe estimated that with early and absentee voting at such high levels, "we're probably over 40 percent now in terms of the overall turnout we're likely to see."

"We very much like what we see from early voting," he said.

In terms of expected turnout, not registered voters, Plouffe said: "Florida's over 30%. North Carolina's at 39%. New Mexico's about 33%. Nevada's about 43%." In Florida, which has only voted for a Democrat once since 1976, Plouffe said early numbers look especially good. "In Florida, in 2004, the Republicans won the early and absentee vote numbers," Plouffe said. "In 2008, as of last night, we had just about a 200,000-vote edge over the Republicans, which is obviously a big change from 2004."

The Obama campaign is pushing newly-registered and sporadic-voting Democrats to vote early. "In Nevada, 43% of all the Democrats who have voted early are either new or sporadic-voting Democrats, which is obviously a key factor," Plouffe said. "In North Carolina, 19% of all Democrats who voted early are Democrats who never voted in a general election before."

On Obama's path to victory, Plouffe said: "We still remain confident that we're in very strong shape in all our Kerry states we're trying to defend. In the battleground states that were Bush states -- Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia -- we think all remain very strong for Senator Obama. Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, the three states I mentioned [North Dakota, Georgia, Arizona] -- we believe we have a credible pathway to win all of them."