Obama Continues to Make Gains

Recently released state polling shows Barack Obama continuing to make gains across the country, expanding his leads in battleground states in the Midwest and Mountain West, and in two crucial states in what is now sometimes referred to as the New South, Virginia and North Carolina.

The Midwest
Michigan: Coming out of the GOP convention in early September, John McCain closed the gap in the Wolverine State to two points, trailing 47 to 45 in the RCP Average on September 10. Since then, however, Obama has more than tripled his lead, moving out to a 6.6% advantage in Michigan in the current RCP Average, with his support rising to 48.9% while McCain's has dropped to 42.3%

Ohio: Obama has now taken a two point lead in the latest RCP Average, 48% to 46%, erasing a McCain lead that reached a high of 2.4% on September 15.

Pennsylvania: On the 18th of September, Obama's lead in the RCP Average in Pennsylvania reached a low of 1.3% (46.8 to 45.5). In the intervening two weeks, however, support for Obama has jump three points to nearly 50% while McCain's support has eroded by an equal amount (-3.5%). Obama's lead in Pennsylvania is now up to 7.7%.

The Mountain West
Colorado: Obama maintained a tiny lead in Colorado (0.4%) heading into the Democratic National Convention in late August. By the middle of September, he had expanded his lead over McCain to 2.5%, and in the last two weeks has seen that lead double again to his current margin of 5.0%.

New Mexico: Polling data in New Mexico is more sparse, but three of the four surveys taken in September give Obama leads of 7, 8, and 11 points, respectively. Overall, Obama leads in the RCP Average by 6.0%.

Nevada: Here, too, polling data is not as prevalent as in other battleground states, but the three most recent surveys show McCain holding on to very small leads. Overall, McCain has a 1.7% advantage over Obama in the RCP Average.

The New South
North Carolina: Coming out of the Republican National Convention, McCain more than doubled his lead over Obama, moving from a 4.2% advantage to an 11-point advantage, 52-41. In the last two weeks, however, polls have shown a decided move in the other direction, with Obama taking a small 0.7% advantage in the Tar Heel state, according to the most recent RCP Average.

Virginia: Polling has shown a tight contest in Virginia for months - through the middle of September neither candidate held an advantage of more than one percent in the RCP Average. In the middle of September, McCain moved out to a 2.3% lead over Obama but, again, the last two weeks have seen a reversal in the numbers, with Obama now holding a 3.0% advantage in the RCP Average.

The Electoral College
Obama's gains in state polls have significantly improved his standing in the RCP Electoral Count. On September 11, Obama stood at 217 Electoral College votes to McCain's 216, with 105 Toss Ups. In the last three weeks, however, Obama's vote count has increased to 246 while McCain's has decreased to 163, creating a +86 EV advantage for Obama, with 126 remaining in the Toss Up column.



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