Given historical precedent, about the worst thing that could happen to Sen. John McCain is happening right now: A weakening economy is hogging center stage in the election. If voters vote their pocketbooks, McCain, by virtue of his party ID, is facing big trouble in November.

Although yesterday's NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows the race essentially tied, Sen. Barack Obama holds a 12-point lead over McCain with voters on "improving the economy." And McCain didn't help his cause when he repeated last week his view that the fundamentals of the economy are "strong" -- just as the White House was about to propose a giant bank bailout and warning about another Great Depression. Talk about bad timing.

McCain, needing to look economically engaged, "suspended" his campaign this week and called for a delay of tonight's debate in Oxford, Miss. He says he wants to set aside partisanship and focus on passing the administration's $700 billion rescue package, but the politics are clear enough: If Congress is unable to come to agreement on the package, McCain will blame Washington gridlock and offer himself as the solution.

Never let it be said that McCain has run a boring campaign. From the Sarah Palin pick, to calling for the firing of SEC Chairman Chris Cox, to his threat to skip tonight's debate, McCain has been playing the role of gritty underdog quite well. Sometimes, as with the Palin pick, he caught his opponent off-guard. Other times, as with exploiting Obama's "lipstick on a pig" aside, he skirts dangerously close to self-parody. Both candidates have now cemented the reputational pitfalls they must avoid. Obama can't afford to come across as somebody who sees himself as a Messiah (as in, "This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal. . . .") McCain has to avoid seeming like a peddler of shallowly-conceived gimmicks.

Which is not to say that calling for a delay in the debate is more of a gimmick than a shrewd ploy. But by responding that tonight's show must go on, Obama has certainly called McCain's bluff. Sometimes circumstances determine political genius or knavery.

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