Does NBC Not Trust Its Own Polls?

Yesterday on Hardball Chris Matthews characterized McCain as "plunging" in the polls at the same time he was revealing the details of the new NBC/WSJ poll showing Obama with a whopping 2-point lead over McCain (48-46) - which represented only a 1 point gain for Obama versus the NBC/WSJ poll taken two weeks ago.

This morning on the Today show - unlike every other morning this week - there was only a passing reference to NBC's new poll in Michigan showing the race tied at 46. Meanwhile, MSNBC's First Read published a piece this morning under the headline "Battlegrounds: Obama Breaking Open?" containing an item on Michigan that did not mention their poll but instead referenced a new poll from Selzer & Co on the economy.

A bit later First Read put up its daily "First Thoughts" which mentioned NBC's Michigan poll eighth out of a list of nine items and once again linked to other polls less favorable to McCain:

*** Tied in Michigan: The latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll shows McCain and Obama tied at 46% each in the battleground state of Michigan. Per Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, McCain is leading in the traditionally GOP regions of Western and Northern Michigan -- but is also holding his own in the Detroit suburbs (Oakland County, Macomb County, and western Wayne County), which is cutting into Obama's margin in the Detroit Metro region. To win, Obama needs to run up a big margin in the Detroit Metro area, which means performing well in those suburbs. That said, a new CNN/Time poll has Obama up by five in Michigan among registered voters (51%-44%), and a new EPIC/MRA poll has Obama up 10 (48%-38%).

It seems odd that NBC would not only bury the results from its own poll but also go out of its way to link to two other surveys given that Mason-Dixon is one of the most well respected polling firms in the country.

Yet they did the same thing on Wednesday in announcing the results of their poll in Virginia, which appeared as item number 4:

*** Virginia is for lovers of a close race: The latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll has McCain ahead by three points in Virginia, 47%-44%. To see the difference between winning and losing in the Old Dominion, check out these numbers in the poll: Obama wins Northern Virginia by a 55%-37% margin, while McCain wins the crucial Hampton Roads area by 48%-44%. But in the recent Washington Post/ABC survey, which had Obama leading in Virginia by three points among likely voters, Obama was at 59% in Northern Virginia and was up 50%-45% in Hampton Roads.

On Tuesday, however, First Thoughts led with results from NBC's poll in Florida showing Obama ahead of McCain by two points, 47-45, with no mention of other polls in the Sunshine State, all of which show McCain with small leads over Obama:

*** Sunshine on Obama's shoulders: If you want to know why Obama is doing his debate prep today in -- of all places -- Tampa, FL, look no further than the latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up in the Sunshine State by two points, 47%-45%. Yet inside those numbers, Obama leads McCain in the Tampa Bay area (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, and Polk counties) by a 49%-43% margin. Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker says the key to winning Florida statewide is usually through Tampa Bay, and Obama's six-point lead in the area explains why he's ahead in this poll. Moreover, outside of Nevada, there is probably not another state that has been hurt more by the housing and credit crunch, and that may be benefiting Obama right now. Also potentially troublesome for McCain in this must-win GOP state, he leads by just six among Hispanics (49%-43%), which in Florida is made up of a majority of Cubans. (If Obama does pick off younger Cubans, he may close the overall gap thanks to his large lead among non-Cuban Hispanics in the I-4 corridor.) Also, McCain's four-point lead among seniors (48%-44%) is not as big as he needs it to be to offset the electorate-changing demographics among blacks and young voters. So Obama's decision to prep for Friday's debate in Florida is turning into a smart play, huh? Any extra day in Florida might pay off…

Make of all this what you will. The polls are indeed all over the place in many of these battleground states, which is why the emphasis and the treatment given to the various results from polls invariably has an impact on public perception.



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