This isn't confirmed, but RedState's Erick Erickson reports the following:

A source close to the campaign now confirms for me that it "more likely than not" is Pawlenty. He does, however, caution me that the campaign does not actually want to leak tonight lest the Obama camp get too much of a chance to play the victim card with a sympathetic media.

The beginning:

With profound gratitude and great humility, I accept your nomination for the presidency of the United States.

Let me express my thanks to the historic slate of candidates who accompanied me on this journey, and especially the one who traveled the farthest -- a champion for working Americans and an inspiration to my daughters and to yours -- Hillary Rodham Clinton. To President Clinton, who last night made the case for change as only he can make it; to Ted Kennedy, who embodies the spirit of service; and to the next Vice President of the United States, Joe Biden, I thank you. I am grateful to finish this journey with one of the finest statesmen of our time, a man at ease with everyone from world leaders to the conductors on the Amtrak train he still takes home every night.

Read the rest here.

A couple of pins being sold outside the Pepsi Center over the last couple of days. To be clear, these are not a product of the Obama campaign:

Roll Call is reporting:

If security sweeps are the giveaway, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney may be on the brink of being selected as Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) vice presidential running mate.

According to sources with strong Michigan ties, the Secret Service has conducted a security sweep of the home of Romney's sister. Romney was raised in Michigan, where his father served as governor.

However, one campaign operative familiar with the working of a presidential-level campaign cautioned that a sweep of such a location could have been conducted in advance of Romney appearing as a surrogate -- not the vice presidential nominee -- at an upcoming McCain campaign stop in Michigan.

Which means this isn't quite the same thing as when we learned Biden was getting Secret Service protection. Take it for what it's worth now. There are also reports that Tim Pawlenty has cancelled many of his afternoon and tomorrow engagements.

Get the latest VP news in the VP Watch blog.

What appears now is the first sign of an Obama bump, as he has jumped to a 6-point lead, according to today's Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (avg. of polls taken August 25-27). Today's poll shows Obama leading 48%-42% over McCain.

The bounce should be expected during a party convention, with non-stop media coverage for at least four straight days. Still, the poll is welcome news for the Obama campaign. Just two days ago, as the convention was commencing, McCain had taken a 2-point lead, his first lead since Obama secured the nomination in early June.

Along with the Rasmussen tracking poll which shows the race tied, Obama now has a 2.9-point lead in the RCP National Average.

DENVER - There's a general consensus Romney was knocked down the list by McCain's gaffe on houses (yesterday Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said picking Romney would be "doubling down" on the out of touch theme and he also called Romney an "expert" Cayman Island tax shelters). While Hutchison*, Ridge, and Lieberman remain on the list, they are all pro-choice. By default, then, the buzz seems to be centering on Tim Pawlenty.

I would add that unlike the Obama selection process, which was conducted under intense scrutiny, McCain's has been conducted in near complete solitude with the entire press corps camped out here in Denver. So he could conceivably pull off a dark horse pick that no one has focused on, a feat that was much tougher for Obama because of the saturation coverage.

Personally, I am not convinced Pawlenty is the best pick for McCain, but I also think it would be a huge strategic blunder for him to pick a pro-choice running mate given that he's done a very effective job of consolidating his base thus far. That leads me back to the guy no one is talking about John Kasich.

After all, what would be better than a cross state battle between Scranton and McKees Rocks?

*Hutchison has voted for a number of restrictions on abortion during her time in the Senate, but is still still considered to be pro-choice.

The McCain campaign emails out news that they will be airing an "historic" ad tonight around the time of Obama's speech, along with this transcript from Morning Joe:

MIKA BRZEZINSKI: Apparently the McCain campaign has an ad rolling out tonight. What's it about?

JILL HAZELBAKER: Well, Mika, this is a historic ad. I think this is the first of its kind. Senator McCain is going to speak direct to camera to Barack Obama. I'm not going to give away many more details than that. But suffice to say it's going to be a very exciting ad, and I think it's going to get a lot of attention.

----------

BRZEZINSKI: Jill, you've got to give us more on this ad. He's speaking directly to camera, John McCain is to Barack Obama. If you say there's news here, what's the news?

HAZELBAKER: Well, I'm going to keep a lid on it. But I think it's newsworthy to note that Senator McCain is going to have an ad that's going to air in battleground states around the time that Senator Obama is speaking tonight. And he's going to be talking directly to his opponent. So, I'm going to leave it there, but it's going be very exciting and a lot of people are going to focus on it.

A most interesting approach. At the very least, it helps get McCain in the mix of todays cable chatter.

The Public Policy Institute of California released a new state poll (August 12-19, 1047 LV) showing Obama leading McCain by 9 points, a 6-point drop from the poll released a month ago.

The Obama campaign is confident they will win the state, which has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections. However, the McCain camp has indicated they think California could be in play.

Obama 48 (-2 vs. last poll, July 8-22)
McCain 39 (+4)

Obama leads by 15.3 points in the RCP Average for California

DENVER - At a luncheon yesterday sponsored by Time Magazine, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told a group of reporters that while he thinks this will be a close election, he believes their ground game has them well positioned heading into the final phase of the campaign. "McCain is at more of a high water mark than we are," Plouffe said.

Responding to a question about the tightness of the polls, Plouffe argued they are just one metric among many. Plouffe said the campaign spends a "tremendous amount" of time and energy on voter ID, voter canvassing, in some cases talking to 10,000 voters per night.

"We look at places where we can adjust the electorate," Plouffe said, citing Florida as one example where they believe the possibility exists of turning out some 900,000 new and currently unregistered voters.

"Our goal, which we may not meet," Plouffe said, "is to make African-American turnout the highest in history."

Plouffe told the group the campaign is focused on 18 battleground states, and that in those states, "we will have the turnout advantage, and we like who the undecideds are."

Speaking specifically about Ohio, Plouffe praised the Bush turnout operation in 2004, saying that he remembered getting a call from a Kerry operative on election day who believed they had the state won because they were surpassing turnout targets in every county.

Plouffe said the Obama campaign is in an even strong position this year. "Is McCain going to replicate what Bush did (in Ohio)? If he does, we think he'll lose. He has to do better than 2004."

Overall, Plouffe said he believes the combination of turnout and persuasion (i.e. tv ads) is worth 1-4 points for Obama on election day.

Speaking about how to attack McCain, Plouffe said that while McCain's image as a maverick was once unassailable, his tack right in the primary has weakened that image and given them a real opportunity. He brushed off a suggestion that their attacks on the number of houses McCain owns might similarly damage Obama's image as being above "slash and burn" politics by saying that the reason the houses issue is important is because it demonstrated that McCain is out of touch with average Americans - reinforcing another angle they've been trying to work against McCain.

"You can't force feed voters things they aren't willing to accept," Plouffe said.

DENVER - For all the ins and outs and day to day chatter generated at conventions, the truth is that very few moments in a convention matter. How many can most people recall off the top of their heads? Probably a half dozen at most. Al Gore's kiss with Tipper and Obama's speech from 2004 are two recent ones that stand out.

But the rest get lost quickly down the collective memory hole. I was standing on the floor of Madison Square Garden four years ago when George W. Bush gave his big acceptance speech and I can't recall a single memorable phrase. Can you?

And despite the theatrics of this week, including great speeches by Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, a virtuoso performance by Bill Clinton and a solidly effective turn by Joe Biden, I don't think we have a "signature moment" from the convention this week that will stick in the public's collective memory.

Though yesterday's roll call was a truly historic moment, if I had to choose the moment most likely to be remembered thus far it would be Ted Kennedy's surprise appearance on Monday night. But that moment was largely memorable for its distinctness to Kennedy himself - his legacy, the heir to Camelot facing his own mortality.

I could be wrong. Perhaps, because of the heightened level of interest this year and the closeness of the primary battle, all of these speeches will make an imprint on the public consciousness. But I doubt it.

That is why tonight's speech by Barack Obama is so critical. For better or worse, this election is a referendum on Obama. The country is clearly wants "change," and that is the core rationale of his candidacy. But Obama has run into some resistance and hesitancy on the part of voters who have yet to be persuaded that he has the experience, the concrete vision, and the leadership to deliver the kind of change America is looking for.

So he must provide these things tonight. And he must do it in a way that connects with the public in a lasting, meaningful way that will withstand the onslaught coming his way next week in St. Paul.