....here's where the Palin choice gets tricky:

*As the Obama campaign and Democrats are gleefully noting today, Palin undercuts McCain's experience argument. But since the McCain campaign obviously considered this, what could their thinking be? Perhaps the campaign felt that in a Democratic year, with an unpopular president, a sputtering economy, it needed to to offer some "change" of its own. We know what McCain-Palin is going to emphasize: Reform and Experience. The bet is that when it gets right down to it, unsure voters will vote for the top of the ticket.

One thing's for sure. We're going to hear a lot more about McCain's age and health. Democrats will feel they have a legitimate reason to raise it now that someone like Palin is on the ticket. It'll likely get ugly.

*Unlike her counterpart Joe Biden, Palin has never been in the heat of a national campaign. And running as vice president is a dangerous place to start: You're not asked as much as the nominee is, but what is asked of you is that you do your few tasks superbly. Palin has never really faced a national press corps, and no one's quite sure how she'll perform against Joe Biden in their one debate. Her speech today was well done, but there are going to be even more eyes on her during the convention. If she nails her speech then, she'll have eased a lot of fears.

Again, the McCain campaign has obviously considered this and Palin has obviously proved to it she can handle what's about to come. But it's one major reason why her selection is a huge gamble.

*The McCain camp's play to Clinton voters could backfire, if it's not handled properly. Because Palin is not a known national figure there's a danger that voters could view her selection as gimmicky -- an obvious and clumsy attempt to appeal to women. Palin has to keep this view from setting in -- or overcome if it does -- by performing extremely well on the stump. She has less room for error than other vice presidents, because her critics will be ready to pounce with this charge.

The other side of this is that the McCain campaign has to push the Obama campaign to make mistakes with Palin, a la Clinton in the primaries. One factor of the outpouring of support for Clinton in the middle of the primary was the view among women that she was being pushed aside and treated unfairly. The Clinton campaign used this -- too late, as it would turn out.