Quinnipiac Swing State Polls: FL, OH, PA
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
DENVER - Quinnipiac is out with new surveys in the key battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All surveys were conducted August 17-24.
Florida
McCain continues to pick up ground in Florida. Since June, McCain has turned a four point deficit into a four point lead:
McCain 47 (+3 vs. last poll July 31)
Obama 43 (-2)
Undecided 8 (+1)
Favorable Ratings: Obama +15 (51/36), McCain + 23 (55/32)
Slicing the demos: Obama is winning 78% of Dems and 10% of Republicans, while McCain is winning 83% of Republicans and 16% of Dems. McCain is leading among Independents by 8 (47 to 39), men by 9 (50 to 41), and the two are tied with women at 45. Lastly, 16% of Hillary Clinton supporters say they will vote for McCain.
Overall, McCain leads by 3.8% in the RCP Average for Florida.
Ohio
Ohio continues to be extremely close. Obama has lost four points over the last two months, while McCain's support has remained basically static, leaving the two in a statistical dead heat:
Obama 44 (-2 vs. last poll July 31)
McCain 43 (-1)
Undecided 11 (+3)
Favorable Ratings: Obama +17 (49/32), McCain + 16 (50/34)
Slicing the demos: Obama is winning Independents by 4 (42-38) and women by 14 (51-37), but 23% of Hillary supporters are indicating they will vote for McCain.
McCain leads by 1.2% in the RCP Average for Ohio.
Pennsylvania
The race in PA hasn't moved at all in the last month according to Quinnipiac:
Obama 49 (nc vs. last poll July 31)
McCain 42 (nc)
Undecided 9 (+1)
Favorable Ratings: Obama +21 (53/32), McCain + 15 (50/35)
Slicing the demos: Obama is winning Independents by 10 (48-38) and women by 16 (53-37). McCain is winning men by 4 (47-43) but he's losing 13% of Republicans to Obama. One in four supporters of Hillary Clinton say they will vote for McCain in November.
Overall, Obama leads by 5.0% in the RCP Average for Pennsylvania.
Sample sizes and Margins of error for the Quinnipiac surveys:
1,069 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent
1,234 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent
1,234 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent

