The Swing Voter Profile

DENVER - This is a bit dated, but still interesting. Earlier this month the AARP conducted surveys in six battleground states - Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio and Pennsylvania - focusing specifically on identifying swing voters. They came away with the following profile: "white, lower-to-middle income, older women" who are "are focused domestically on the economy and health care, but three-fourths (72%) believe the candidates are doing a poor or fair job of addressing these key issues."

Overall, McCain and Obama were very competitive among this group in every state - with one exception: Florida. McCain The AARP did not provide horse race number for each state, but you can see from the favorable/favorable ratings that these swing voters held a much more negative view of Obama than in any other state:

swingvoterchart.gif

Not surprisingly, the "experience" vs. "change" dynamic is present among swing voters in these battleground states but, again, it's more pronounced in Florida, where McCain's advantages are strong and Obama's weaker. The opposite is true in Iowa, where McCain under performs the 6 state average on the "strong leader" question while Obama over performs on the "agent of change" question:

swingvoterchart2.gif

--------------------------------------------
Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.
--------------------------------------------


The Swing Voter Profile

DENVER - This is a bit dated, but still interesting. Earlier this month the AARP conducted surveys in six battleground states - Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio and Pennsylvania - focusing specifically on identifying swing voters. They came away with the following profile: "white, lower-to-middle income, older women" who are "are focused domestically on the economy and health care, but three-fourths (72%) believe the candidates are doing a poor or fair job of addressing these key issues."

Overall, McCain and Obama were very competitive among this group in every state - with one exception: Florida. McCain The AARP did not provide horse race number for each state, but you can see from the favorable/favorable ratings that these swing voters held a much more negative view of Obama than in any other state:

swingvoterchart.gif

Not surprisingly, the "experience" vs. "change" dynamic is present among swing voters in these battleground states but, again, it's more pronounced in Florida, where McCain's advantages are strong and Obama's weaker. The opposite is true in Iowa, where McCain under performs the 6 state average on the "strong leader" question while Obama over performs on the "agent of change" question:

swingvoterchart2.gif

--------------------------------------------
Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.
--------------------------------------------



Copyright © Time Inc. All rights reserved.

Powered by WordPress.com VIP

Subscribe | Customer Service | Help | Site Map | Search | Contact Us | Privacy Policy
Terms of Use | Reprints & Permissions |
Press Releases | Media Kit Try AOL for 1000 Hours FREE!