ABC News/WaPo: Obama +4
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New ABC News/Washington Post poll shows the race virtually unchanged in the last month. Obama leads McCain by six points among registered voters (49 to 43) but that lead shrinks to 4 points among likely voters with leaners:
Obama 49 (nc vs. last poll July 13)
McCain 45 (-1)
Undecided 4 (+2)
Overall, Obama leads by 1.8% in the RCP National Average.
When Nader and Barr are included the numbers look like this:
Obama 48 (-1 vs. last poll July 13)
McCain 42 (-1)
Barr 3 (+1)
Nader 3 (-1)
Undecided 2 (nc)
In the four way contest Obama leads by 2.7% in the RCP Average.
Two other numbers from the poll jumped out. The Democratic party's favorable numbers are a net +22 (58 favorable, 36 unfavorable), which is a 14 point gain since last November. The Republican party has also improved its standing since last November, going from a net -18 rating (39 favorable, 57 unfavorable) to a net -2 (47 favorable, 49 unfavorable). Seems the public is feeling better about both parties as they've gone about settling on their nominees.
Also, Barack Obama holds a 5-point lead over John McCain on the question of who is the "stronger leader," 49 to 44. That's an eight point swing in the last two months, and it represents the first time Obama has overtaken McCain on that question among registered voters.

