ST. PAUL - New CNN poll conducted Friday, August 29 through Sunday, August 31 shows no bounce for Obama coming out of his convention:

Obama-Biden 49 (+2 vs. last poll Aug 23)
McCain-Palin 48 (+1)

Overall, Obama leads McCain by 3.4% in the RCP National Average.

"It's a trap!" - Adm. Akbar, Return of the Jedi

I couldn't help thinking of the good admiral's ominous realization when reading Kirsten Powers' New York Post column this morning on the Palin pick:

I can't help wondering if this is a trap. The McCain camp watched and learned as Obama supporters offended Hillary supporters by their treatment of her. The McCainiacs had to know that this group is incapable of behaving, that Palin would bring out their worst instincts....

The other potential trap is luring the Obama campaign onto the "experience" field. The early conventional wisdom says McCain's pick was boneheaded because it takes the experience issue off the table. But it seems that it has done the opposite: The importance of experience is the topic of the day.

The more Democrats complain about this, the more Republicans can turn it on them and say, "If you are so concerned about the amount of experience of the vice president, what about the top of your ticket?"

Other than the announcement itself, the most interesting thing to happen yesterday was the Obama campaign's confusion over its response to Sarah Palin. It was almost as if, having taken the bait, they suddenly realized what they had done. Almost as exciting as how Palin performs on the stump will be watching how the Obama campaign reacts. A few mistakes on her part would make the Obama campaign's job easier of course.

On the other hand, David Frum, writing in the National Post, seems to suggest that the "trap" line might be too clever by half:

But the selection of Sarah Palin invites the question: How serious can [McCain] be if he would place such a neophyte second in line to the presidency? Barack Obama at least balanced his inexperience with Mr. Biden's experience. What is Mr. McCain doing?

Vice-presidents have historically made surprisingly little difference to the outcome of presidential elections. The elder Bush picked Dan Quayle in 1988 in hopes of wooing younger voters, much as Walter Mondale had chosen Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, in an effort to mobilize women, and George McGovern had hoped that Sargent Shriver would stanch his losses among Catholics in 1972.

None of these gambits worked.

Following a harsh initial response from his own campaign, Obama this afternoon sought to distance himself from those comments. Ben Smith reports:

"I think that, uh, you know, campaigns start getting these, uh, hair triggers and, uh, the statement that Joe and I put out reflects our sentiments," he said, according to the pool report, apparently criticizing his staff for going overboard, as he did occasionally in the primary.

He was referring to a more gracious statement of congratulations he issued later with Biden, which he then reiterated.

"I haven't met her before. She seems like a compelling person ... with a terrific personal story.

"I'm sure that she will help make the case for Republicans, unfortunately the case is more of the same, and so ultimately John McCain is at the top of the ticket."

Interesting. This could mean that the Obama campaign hasn't decided how to hit Palin. They'll settle on some strategy, but it shows that announcement threw them off their game.

UPDATE: RCP reader Jon makes another point about Palin's strengths:

It's also interesting that many seem to think Clinton's support was all female and that Palin was selected merely to pander to that group. They are right when they believe that few Democratic women are going to be swayed by Palin's gender. But they forget that many of those 18 million voters were rural and working class males. They will be at least interested in someone who actually fishes and hunts and has worked for a living (and is married to someone who works for a living) and who probably has never eaten arugula in her life. Palin will connect with those voters in a way that Obama and Biden never will. And the percentage she gains doesn't have to be large to make a difference in key swing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc.

I think Jon's point underscores the difficulty the Obama campaign might run into attacking Palin. We'll have to see what polls tell us in the days ahead.

Short and sweet:

We should all be proud of Governor Sarah Palin's historic nomination, and I congratulate her and Senator McCain. While their policies would take America in the wrong direction, Governor Palin will add an important new voice to the debate.

Sarah Palin has been a staunch supporter of drilling in ANWR. Yet McCain, although he has made feints in that direction, hasn't extended his call for more drilling into ANWR. Does Palin's selection signal a coming policy shift from McCain?

McCain-Palin will certainly make sure to put drilling and energy issues front and center. But it'll be a very obvious weakness if there's disagreement on the ticket over ANWR. So don't be surprised if McCain -- say, at his acceptance speech -- calls for drilling in ANWR.

....here's where the Palin choice gets tricky:

*As the Obama campaign and Democrats are gleefully noting today, Palin undercuts McCain's experience argument. But since the McCain campaign obviously considered this, what could their thinking be? Perhaps the campaign felt that in a Democratic year, with an unpopular president, a sputtering economy, it needed to to offer some "change" of its own. We know what McCain-Palin is going to emphasize: Reform and Experience. The bet is that when it gets right down to it, unsure voters will vote for the top of the ticket.

One thing's for sure. We're going to hear a lot more about McCain's age and health. Democrats will feel they have a legitimate reason to raise it now that someone like Palin is on the ticket. It'll likely get ugly.

*Unlike her counterpart Joe Biden, Palin has never been in the heat of a national campaign. And running as vice president is a dangerous place to start: You're not asked as much as the nominee is, but what is asked of you is that you do your few tasks superbly. Palin has never really faced a national press corps, and no one's quite sure how she'll perform against Joe Biden in their one debate. Her speech today was well done, but there are going to be even more eyes on her during the convention. If she nails her speech then, she'll have eased a lot of fears.

Again, the McCain campaign has obviously considered this and Palin has obviously proved to it she can handle what's about to come. But it's one major reason why her selection is a huge gamble.

*The McCain camp's play to Clinton voters could backfire, if it's not handled properly. Because Palin is not a known national figure there's a danger that voters could view her selection as gimmicky -- an obvious and clumsy attempt to appeal to women. Palin has to keep this view from setting in -- or overcome if it does -- by performing extremely well on the stump. She has less room for error than other vice presidents, because her critics will be ready to pounce with this charge.

The other side of this is that the McCain campaign has to push the Obama campaign to make mistakes with Palin, a la Clinton in the primaries. One factor of the outpouring of support for Clinton in the middle of the primary was the view among women that she was being pushed aside and treated unfairly. The Clinton campaign used this -- too late, as it would turn out.

....here's where the Palin choice gets tricky:

*As the Obama campaign and Democrats are gleefully noting today, Palin undercuts McCain's experience argument. But since the McCain campaign obviously considered this, what could their thinking be? Perhaps the campaign felt that in a Democratic year, with an unpopular president, a sputtering economy, it needed to to offer some "change" of its own. We know what McCain-Palin is going to emphasize: Reform and Experience. The bet is that when it gets right down to it, unsure voters will vote for the top of the ticket.

One thing's for sure. We're going to hear a lot more about McCain's age and health. Democrats will feel they have a legitimate reason to raise it now that someone like Palin is on the ticket. It'll likely get ugly.

*Unlike her counterpart Joe Biden, Palin has never been in the heat of a national campaign. And running as vice president is a dangerous place to start: You're not asked as much as the nominee is, but what is asked of you is that you do your few tasks superbly. Palin has never really faced a national press corps, and no one's quite sure how she'll perform against Joe Biden in their one debate. Her speech today was well done, but there are going to be even more eyes on her during the convention. If she nails her speech then, she'll have eased a lot of fears.

Again, the McCain campaign has obviously considered this and Palin has obviously proved to it she can handle what's about to come. But it's one major reason why her selection is a huge gamble.

*The McCain camp's play to Clinton voters could backfire, if it's not handled properly. Because Palin is not a known national figure there's a danger that voters could view her selection as gimmicky -- an obvious and clumsy attempt to appeal to women. Palin has to keep this view from setting in -- or overcome if it does -- by performing extremely well on the stump. She has less room for error than other vice presidents, because her critics will be ready to pounce with this charge.

The other side of this is that the McCain campaign has to push the Obama campaign to make mistakes with Palin, a la Clinton in the primaries. One factor of the outpouring of support for Clinton in the middle of the primary was the view among women that she was being pushed aside and treated unfairly. The Clinton campaign used this -- too late, as it would turn out.

Media coverage of Obama's speech will return, but now we can see the McCain campaign's full strategy with the running-mate rollout. Part of it has to do with when, but more importantly, it also has to do with who. Had McCain chosen Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty, the announcement will likely still have dominated today's coverage. But the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate have been so thoroughly documented, and their selection so foreordained, that the media would have met it, if not with a yawn, than with a lack of enthusiasm.

Sarah Palin is a different kind of candidate. She's been analyzed as a running mate, yes, but not so thoroughly as the others. In other words, pundits weren't already blue in the face talking about her. Even her weaknesses, and they are considerable, are exciting: How will Palin match up against Joe Biden; will Palin's firing scandal be an issue; what about her experience?

Moreover, it's what Palin's selection says about how the McCain campaign is thinking about this race, and how it intends to win it, that is equally as fascinating. She mentioned the "18 million cracks" in the ceiling; she actually had Republicans applauding Hillary Clinton. Just when this race couldn't get more exciting, the McCain campaign has pumped a megadose of adrenaline into it. Again, neither Romney nor Pawlenty could have done that.

So now we know why the campaign was so meticulous in keeping this one a secret up until an hour before it introduced her to the world. The Obama campaign, known for its discipline, must be looking on in admiration today, even as they fire up the oppo research team. Score one for the McCain team. Eyes will be on St. Paul.

UPDATE: Over at the Corner, Peter Robinson sees it similarly:

She has cut short the attention the press would otherwise have lavished on Obama all weekend, limting Obama's bounce. This has solved McCain's most immediate tactical problem. And has thrilled the GOP's conservative base, which can now in good conscience give itself to the McCain candidacy with enthusiasm--not feigned enthusiasm, real enthusiasm--for the first time since the senator entered the race. This has solved McCain's biggest strategic problem.

Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton:

Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency. Governor Palin shares John McCain's commitment to overturning Roe v. Wade, the agenda of Big Oil and continuing George Bush's failed economic policies -- that's not the change we need, it's just more of the same.

McCain campaign spokesperson Jill Hazelbaker:

It is pretty audacious for the Obama campaign to say that Governor Palin is not qualified to be Vice President. She has a record of accomplishment that Senator Obama simply cannot match. Governor Palin has spent her time in office shaking up government in Alaska and actually achieving results -- whether it's taking on corruption, passing ethics reform or stopping wasteful spending and the 'bridge to nowhere.' Senator Obama has spent his time in office running for President.

And McCain senior advisor Nancy Pfotenhauer just said on Fox - and I'm paraphrasing: I think the Obama campaign would have learned not to belittle women.

Fasten your seat belts. We're in for a very bumpy ride.

Question: What is Hillary going to say?

UPDATE: The their surrogates attack the pick, the Democratic ticket is taking a different approach with this statement from Senators Obama and Biden:

We send our congratulations to Governor Sarah Palin and her family on her designation as the republican nominee for Vice President. It is yet another encouraging sign that old barriers are falling in our politics. While we obviously have differences over how best to lead this country forward Governor Palin is an admirable person and will add a compelling new voice to this campaign.

Here's the official release from the McCain campaign:

JOHN MCCAIN SELECTS ALASKA GOVERNOR SARAH PALIN AS VICE PRESIDENTIAL RUNNING MATE

For Immediate Release

Contact: Press Office

Friday, August 29, 2008

703-650-5550

ARLINGTON, VA -- U.S. Senator John McCain today announced that he has selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate and to serve as his vice president.

Governor Palin is a tough executive who has demonstrated during her time in office that she is ready to be president. She has brought Republicans and Democrats together within her Administration and has a record of delivering on the change and reform that we need in Washington.

Governor Palin has challenged the influence of the big oil companies while fighting for the development of new energy resources. She leads a state that matters to every one of us -- Alaska has significant energy resources and she has been a leader in the fight to make America energy independent.

In Alaska, Governor Palin challenged a corrupt system and passed a landmark ethics reform bill. She has actually used her veto and cut budgetary spending. She put a stop to the "bridge to nowhere" that would have cost taxpayers $400 million dollars.

As the head of Alaska's National Guard and as the mother of a soldier herself, Governor Palin understands what it takes to lead our nation and she understands the importance of supporting our troops.

Governor Palin has the record of reform and bipartisanship that others can only speak of. Her experience in shaking up the status quo is exactly what is needed in Washington today.