Obama's lead has shrunk among likely voters in three swing states -- Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- according to Quinnipiac polls released today. The race is a dead heat in Florida and Ohio, and Obama is up 7 points in Pennsylvania. All three states show smaller margins for Obama compared with last month.

Florida (July 23-29, 1238 LV)

Obama 46 (-1 vs. last poll, June 9-16)
McCain 44 (+1)

McCain leads by 0.5 of a point in the RCP Average for Florida

Ohio (July 23-29, 1229 LV)

Obama 46 (-2 vs. last poll, June
McCain 44 (+2)

Obama leads by 0.5 of a point in the RCP Average for Ohio

Pennsylvania (July 23-29, 1317 LV)

Obama 49 (-3 vs. last poll, June 9-16)
McCain 42 (+2)

Obama leads by 7.4 points in the RCP Average for Pennsylvania

The Obama campaign's new ad accuses McCain of taking the 'Low Road:"

New CNN poll (July 27-29, 941 RV, MoE +/- 3.0%) shows Obama leading McCain by 7 points, which is only a slight improvement from last month's survey:

Obama 51 (+1 vs. last poll June 26-29)
McCain 44 (-1)

Obama's lead in the RCP National Avg ticked back up to 3.0%

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is in a tough spot when it comes to Sen. Ted Stevens, who will appear in court tomorrow facing seven counts of lying on Senate financial disclosure forms. NRSC chair John Ensign said today that the committee won't endorse a candidate in the Alaska Senate race until after the primary late next month. From First Read:

Ensign, instead of endorsing the longest serving Senate Republican in history, said he wanted to wait for the results of Alaska's Republican primary on August 26th. Stevens faces six opponents.

"The candidates are on the ballot right now, and we're going to wait to see how that whole thing plays out," Ensign said.

"Do you still endorse Sen. Stevens?" a reporter asked Ensign.

"I've said exactly what I was going to say," Ensign responded. "We'll wait and see how the process plays out."

Vic Vickers, one of the six challenging Stevens, has now said he's willing to spend $750,000 of his own money on the race. According to the Anchorage Daily News, Vickers plans to run statewide TV ads from today through the primary. However, as Josh Kraushaar notes on The Scorecard, Vickers is "unlikely to unseat Stevens in the Republican primary on August 26. But his active opposition will provide an early test to exactly how vulnerable Stevens will be against Democrat Mark Begich in the November election."

Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, has led in most polls over the last three months.

Strategic Vision released two new polls showing Obama leading McCain in both Pennsylvania and Washington. Both states voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections, though John Kerry won Pennsylvania by just 3 points in 2004.

Pennsylvania (July 25-27, 1200 LV, MoE +/- 3%)

Obama 49
McCain 40
Und 11

Obama leads by 8.7 points in the RCP Average for Pennsylvania

Washington (July 25-27, 800 LV, MoE +/- 3%)

Obama 48
McCain 37
Und 15

Obama leads by 10.6 points in the RCP Average for Washington

Marc Ambinder has the goods from longtime former McCain advisor John Weaver:

With the release today of a McCain television ad blasting Obama for celebrity preening while gas prices rise, and a memo that accuses Obama of putting his own aggrandizement before the country, Weaver said he's had "enough."

The ad's premise, he said, is "childish." [snip]

"For McCain to win in such troubled times, he needs to begin telling the American people how he intends to lead us. That McCain exists. He can inspire the country to greatness."

He added: "There is legitimate mockery of a political campaign now, and it isn't at Obama's. For McCain's sake, this tomfoolery needs to stop."

Jodi Kantor has a fascinating look at Obama's 12 years as a Constitutional law professor at the University of Chicago in today's New York Times which begins:

The young law professor stood apart in too many ways to count. At a school where economic analysis was all the rage, he taught rights, race and gender. Other faculty members dreamed of tenured positions; he turned them down. While most colleagues published by the pound, he never completed a single work of legal scholarship. [snip]

Before he outraised every other presidential primary candidate in American history, Mr. Obama marched students through the thickets of campaign finance law. Before he helped redraw his own State Senate district, making it whiter and wealthier, he taught districting as a racially fraught study in how power is secured. And before he posed what may be the ultimate test of racial equality - whether Americans will elect a black president - he led students through African-Americans' long fight for equal status.

Definitely worth a read.

"I want to look you in the eye: I will not raise your taxes nor support a tax increase. I will not do it." - John McCain today at a townhall meeting in Colorado.

Following on the heels of its new ad knocking Barack Obama's celebrity status, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis unleashed a memo to "interested parties" (in other words, everyone), trying to push forward the narrative that Obama is a popular, presumptuous poser whose lofty rhetoric is at odds with his real world accomplishments and experience. Davis's memo reads:

To: Interested Parties

From: Rick Davis, McCain Campaign Manager

Date: July 30, 2008

Re: Barack Obama's Celebrity

Barack Obama is the biggest celebrity in the world, comparable to Tom Cruise, Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. As he told Congressional Democrats yesterday, he has become the "symbol" for the world's aspirations for America and that we are now at "the moment ... that the world is waiting for."

Only a celebrity of Barack Obama's magnitude could attract 200,000 fans in Berlin who gathered for the mere opportunity to be in his presence. These are not supporters or even voters, but fans fawning over The One. Only celebrities like Barack Obama go to the gym three times a day, demand "MET-RX chocolate roasted-peanut protein bars and bottles of a hard-to-find organic brew -- Black Forest Berry Honest Tea" and worry about the price of arugula.

Yet, despite all of the fans, paparazzi and media adoration, the American people still have questions: Is Barack Obama prepared to lead? Is being famous the same as being a credible commander in chief?

Like most worldwide celebrities, this status has fueled a certain arrogance. As The Washington Post reported this morning, Barack Obama has gone from his party's presumptive nominee to "its presumptuous nominee." His advisers are constantly reminded that their candidate is not actually the President of the United States, despite the "presidential" seal. On his plane, his chair reads "President."

Barack Obama's presumptuous arrogance is staggering considering that as a United States Senator he has almost no record of accomplishment. As Richard Cohen wrote yesterday in The Washington Post:

"'Just tell me one thing Barack Obama has done that you admire,' I asked a prominent Democrat. He paused and then said that he admired Obama's speech to the Democratic convention in 2004. I agreed. It was a hell of a speech, but it was just a speech. On the other hand, I continued, I could cite four or five actions -- not speeches -- that John McCain has taken that elicit my admiration, even my awe."

On issues big and small, there is a gap between Barack Obama's soaring rhetoric and celebrity and the facts behind them. What he says and what he does are often two very different things, leaving the American people to wonder what he actually believes, or if he believes in anything beyond himself. He says he will change Washington, but in the U.S. Senate, he has requested nearly $1 billion in pork-barrel spending. He says he will only raise taxes on the rich, but he voted to raise the taxes of those making just $32,000 per year. He says he wants energy independence, but he opposes new drilling at home; opposes nuclear power; and opposes encouraging the invention of an advanced, affordable electric car. On Iraq, he says he wants peace, but even today opposes the surge strategy that has succeeded and will succeed in Afghanistan. Our nation doesn't need another politician in Washington who puts his self-interest and political expediency ahead of problem-solving.

As the world's biggest celebrity, Barack Obama has the entourage and all the trappings of fame. Today, his campaign is more about advancing Barack Obama and less about solving the challenges facing our country.

Obama loses two points overnight in Gallup, picks up one in Rasmussen. His lead over McCain in the RCP National Avg is now 2.6%.