Horizons vs. Tables

The Washington Post reports:

TUCSON, July 18 -- President Bush and Iraq's prime minister have agreed to set a "time horizon" for the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Iraq as security conditions in the war-ravaged nation continue to improve, White House officials said here Friday.

So it's a "time horizon," which is at once distinct from, and yet perilously close to "timetable," which is a phrase Democrats have been beaten over the head with repeatedly for the last few years. President Bush has also used the phrase "aspirational goal" to further emphasize the concept that any notion of withdrawal must be considered more in the medium than short term, and also be based on "conditions on the ground" as opposed to being "arbitrary" or "fixed."

The White House's statement incorporated all of these pieces of jargon into its official statement today:

"In the area of security cooperation, the president and the prime minister agreed that improving conditions should allow for the agreements now under negotiation to include a general time horizon for meeting aspirational goals. The president and prime minister agreed that the goals would be based on continued improving conditions on the ground and not an arbitrary date for withdrawal."

So what are the political ramifications of this announcement? Overall, McCain has done a surprisingly effective job at taking the issue of Iraq, which is clearly viewed negatively by the public and which many thought would hurt McCain because of his close association with the war and the surge, and leveraged it against Obama.

But, as I briefly mentioned the other night on Hannity & Colmes, despite McCain success thus far using the improving conditions in Iraq to pressure Obama, continued success there may in fact play to Obama's benefit.

To the extent things continue to improve in Iraq, and to the extent we're able to draw down additional troops before November, it's possible the distinctions between the two candidates on the issue will become blurred and, more importantly, the public will turn its attention to other things like the economy - which is not to McCain's benefit.

McCain has always said he'd rather lose an election than lose a war. That may be exactly what happens if by November it looks like we've been able to declare victory and bring the boys home with honor - a result that may come to pass, ironically, because of the change of strategy he championed.

UPDATE: In a sign the McCain camp may realize the potential political danger of the scenario I just described, Senator McCain released the following statement:

"Progress between the United States and Iraq on a time horizon for American troop presence is further evidence that the surge has succeeded. Most of the U.S. forces used in the surge have already been withdrawn. When a further conditions-based withdrawal of U.S. forces is possible, it will be because we and our Iraqi partners built on the successes of the surge strategy, which Senator Obama opposed, predicted would fail, voted against and campaigned against in the primary. When we withdraw, we will withdraw with honor and victory. An honorable and victorious withdrawal would not be possible if Senator Obama's views had prevailed. An artificial timetable based on political expediency would have led to disaster and could still turn success into defeat. If we had followed Senator Obama's policy, Iraq would have descended into chaos, American casualties would be far higher, and the region would be destabilized."



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