Poll: McCain Would Handle Iraq Better

According to a national poll from AP/Yahoo News, more people believe that McCain can handle the war in Iraq better than Obama. 76% of Republicans, 31% of independents and 15% of Democrats said McCain would best handle Iraq, while 57% of Democrats, 19% of independents and 8% of Republicans feel Obama would do a better job. Overall, 39% said McCain would better handle Iraq and 33% said Obama.

AP/Yahoo News is tracking the moods and opinions of the same 2,714 people over the course of the campaign. For this installment, they polled 1,759 people (844 Dems, 637 GOPers) from June 13-23.

Also tested was who would handle terrorism better. Republicans favored McCain 78%-2% over Obama; independents did as well with a 37%-7% margin. Democrats were split, favoring Obama 38%-21% over McCain.


The Morning Report

In the Headlines

"Turnout Boost Could Favor Obama" (Mike Dorning, Chicago Tribune) - Barack Obama could make major gains in at least nine states the Democratic ticket lost in 2004 if he can achieve a relatively modest increase in turnout among young and African-American voters, a Tribune analysis of voting data suggests.

"McCain calls for energy-efficient government" (Glen Johnson, AP) - Republican John McCain said Tuesday the federal government should practice the energy efficiency he preaches, pledging as president to switch official vehicles to green technologies and do the same for office buildings.

"Evangelical Leader Attacks Obama on Religious Views" (Larry Rohter, New York Times) - Just days after Senator Barack Obama met quietly with religious leaders, including the son of the Rev. Billy Graham, another of the evangelical movement's most prominent names, James C. Dobson, has sharply attacked Mr. Obama, accusing him of having "a fruitcake interpretation of the Constitution" and twisting the meaning of both the Old and New Testaments.

"Obama's aim: 14 Bush states and local races" (Ben Smith, The Politico) - Barack Obama will focus his resources largely in 14 states George W. Bush won in 2004, his chief field operative said Tuesday, hoping to score upsets in places like Virginia, Indiana, and Georgia.

From the Morning Shows

Today - Lisa Caputo, Hillary Clinton adviser, on why Bill Clinton has not been more outspoken in supporting Obama as the party's nominee: "I think he's waiting to be asked to do something for this campaign. It is up to the nominee and it's their choice how they want to use the former president."

From Late Night

David Letterman:

(Greg Bobrinskoy contributed to the Morning Report.)


Hey, It's Endive, Not Arugula!

A bit of detail from the pool report of Obama's star-studded Hollywood fundraiser yesterday:

Donors sipped wine and bottled water. Waiters wearing black vests, white shirts and black ties served hors d'oeuvres: endive spears of brie, toasted almonds and truffle oil; tuna tartare with passion fruit ponzu and macadamia nut on wonton crisp; beef short rib skewers with Asian flavors.

Clearly, one of Obama's potential vulnerabilities as a candidate is the image that he's an elitist who is "out of touch" with working class America. This is an angle Republicans are keen to exploit, as we saw with Karl Rove test-driving the "coolly arrogant" country club line just this week. And though Maureen Dowd is confident Republicans won't be able to get away with it, even the tiniest details like the ones from the pool report help feed the narrative, as you can only imagine how a beer-drinking, blue-collar Democrat in Ohio might react to news that Obama was hanging out "sipping wine and eating endive spears of brie" with Hollywood liberals.

My point isn't that Obama has to go to mega-fundraisers where rich activists are paying $2,300 a piece and serve them burgers and dawgs. But if I was advising the Obama campiagn - a group that seems to be quite serious and disciplined about managing their candidate's image - I'd make sure that for every story that ran with details of glitzy, wine and brie fundraisers, there would be two stories in the news showing Obama eating burgers and dawgs with ordinary folks in places like Ohio and Michigan.

Those events won't raise $4 million a pop, of course. But, then again, lack of money isn't Obama's biggest potential problem this November.


Quote of the Day

"When an issue is this hot, it would be so much easier if there was a single reason to blame. The oil shock is real and is about the hottest political issue right now. So Congress feels the pressure to do something but there is not much it can do to promote peace in Nigeria or to get the value of the dollar to go up." - Energy expert Daniel Yergin, who will testify today before the Joint Economic Committee.


LA Times/Bloomberg Poll: Obama +12

In a new L.A. Times/Bloomberg national poll, Obama holds a wide lead over McCain (June 19-23, 1,115 RV, MoE +/- 3%). When Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr were added to the race, Obama's lead over McCain grew to 48%-33%. The Times reports that Obama's strong numbers stem from respondents believing he could better solve the country's economic problems, and that McCain suffers from an "enthusiasm gap" among conservatives.

Obama 49
McCain 37

Obama leads by 7.5 points in the RCP National Average


IN Polls: Prez Race Even, Gov Race Close

A new SurveyUSA presidential poll in Indiana shows McCain and Obama separated by just 1 point. Also tested were the candidates in the race for governor -- Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels leads former Democratic Rep. Jill Long Thompson by 5 points.

(June 21-23, 627 LV, MoE +/- 4%)

Obama 48
McCain 47
Und 2

Obama leads by 0.5 of a point in the RCP Average for Indiana

Daniels 50 (+1 vs. last poll, June 10-12)
Long Thompson 45 (-4)
Und 5

Daniels leads by 10.0 points in the RCP Average for Indiana


McCain's Psychological Benefits

McCain said yesterday that he doesn't "see an immediate relief" on gas prices from offshore oil drilling, and that "though it may take some years, the fact that we are exploiting those reserves would have psychological impact that I think is beneficial."

Today, in his remarks from Las Vegas, Obama responded to McCain's statement:

"'Psychological impact.' In case you were wondering, that's Washington-speak for, 'It polls well.' It's an example of how Washington politicians try to convince you that they did something to make your life better when they really didn't. Well the American people don't need psychological relief or meaningless gimmicks to get politicians through the next election, they need real relief that will help them fill up their tanks and put food on their table. They need a long-term energy strategy that will reduce our dependence on foreign oil by investing in the renewable sources of energy that represent the future. That's what they need."


VP Watch: Michigan Numbers

Over at VP Watch, we've posted some new numbers from Public Policy Polling showing what Michigan voters think of an Obama/Clinton ticket.

Also, we have your daily veep reading in Conventional Wisdom and the Daily Buzz.


The Charm Offensive Continues

Earlier this week it was reported that in a closed door meeting with the Congressional Black Caucus, Barack Obama suggested Hillary Clinton's supporters needed to "get over it" - speaking about his defeating Clinton for the nomination.

This morning, in a comment sure to add to the ongoing discussion, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi dismissed a question about whether sexism played any role in Hillary Clinton's defeat by saying, "I'm a victim of sexism myself all the time." In other words, "get over it."


42 Offers Support For Obama, Sort Of

A spokesman for Bill Clinton issued a statement saying that the former president "is obviously committed to doing whatever he can and is asked to do to ensure Senator Obama is the next president of the United States." However, despite the one-line released statement from his spokesman, Clinton still has yet to publicly endorse the presumptive nominee of his party.

Speaking at the U.S. Conference of Mayors in Miami over the weekend, where Obama had spoken just a day earlier, Clinton ignored reporters' questions of whether he would endorse Obama. Carl Cannon notes that Clinton mentioned Obama just once in his speech at the Miami conference, "And then, it was only to praise Obama for supporting a Clinton administration initiative."



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