The Democratic Party of Virginia makes the case for Obama winning the state:

"John McCain travels to northern Virginia today, a region of the state where the population growth and shift in voting trends have changed the landscape statewide in favor of Democrats in recent years, putting the Commonwealth into play for the presidential election," the memo argues.

"The nation's eyes will be on Virginia this election season as the Commonwealth sits poised to support a Democrat for President for the first time in 44 years," it reads.

The note suggests that Obama will rely heavily on riding the coattails of three of Virginia's popular Democratic leaders -- Gov. Tim Kaine, Sen. Jim Webb and senate candidate Mark Warner, the former governor.

Citing "the Mark Warner effect" -- Warner will be on the same ballot as Obama this fall -- the memo asserts that Obama can win the state in the same way Warner won the governorship in 2001: by running up margins in "vote-rich, Democratic leaning northern Virginia" while also employing a "successful rural strategy." Warner ran that campaign as a business-minded moderate willing to work across party lines.

Virginia Democrats are confident that the national political climate is much more favorable to their party in 2008, a trend that could morph traditionally Republican counties in the central part of the state into new electoral battlegrounds.

The memo also argues that McCain has serious deficiencies among Virginia evangelicals, a constituency he lost to Mike Huckabee in the state's Feb. 12 primary. Independents also chose Obama over McCain in the primary.

Well, Virginia is certainly more likely to go for Obama than California is for McCain. But in this "Strategy Briefing" the McCain camp has up on its Web site, we learn that "McCain's unique appeal to independent voters creates opportunity in CA." OK, but here's the thing: California campaignin' requires a lot of money, money that McCain will want to save on better "opportunities" than California.

UPDATE: Via Jonathan Martin, the Politico's Mike Allen was with McCain in VA today:

McCain recognized that Virginia may be more competitive this cycle.

"We cannot take it for granted," he said, promising to return to stump in the Old Dominion. He promised he'd come out on top. "We will win."

Joe Namath, call your agent.