Insider Advantage is out with new numbers in the Tar Heel state (April 29, 571 LV) showing Hillary Clinton erasing a double digit deficit over the last two weeks and edging ahead of Obama:

Clinton 44 (+8 vs. last poll April 14)
Obama 42 (-9)
Undecided 14

Overall, Obama's lead in the RCP Average for North Carolina is now down to 7.3%.

According to a new New York Times/CBS News poll, half of Clinton's supporters would be dissatisfied if Obama wins the Democratic nomination.

From the New York Times:

More than six in 10 Democratic primary voters who support Mr. Obama in the poll say they would be satisfied if Mrs. Clinton wins the nomination. But among Mrs. Clinton's supporters, just 49 percent say they would feel satisfied if Mr. Obama wins, while 50 percent would be dissatisfied. Nearly a quarter say they would be very dissatisfied.

The poll also found that 56% of all respondents believed a Democrat would win the presidency in November, including 29% of Republicans polled.

A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows Clinton leading Obama by a small margin (April 28-29, 400 Dem LV, MoE +/- 5%).

Clinton 44
Obama 41
Und 7

Obama leads by 2.0 points in the RCP Nat'l Average

The poll also found Clinton leading McCain by 1 point in a general election matchup, and McCain leading Obama by 3 points (April 28-29, 900 RV, MoE +/- 3%).

Clinton 45 - McCain 44
Obama 43 - McCain 46

Clinton now leads McCain by 2.8 points and McCain leads Obama by 0.2 of a point in the RCP Nat'l Averages.

After building his name recognition, campaign war chest and overall credibility and all but securing the Democratic nomination for Senate in Minnesota, satirist Al Franken has stumbled in recent weeks as repeated revelations about his business dealings have made for splashy headlines. Now, Franken has paid $70,000 in back taxes and fines in 17 states where he earned money in recent years, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported today.

Franken blamed his accountant, with whom he has done business for eighteen years, of making fundamental errors that caused the oversights. Those oversights led to overpayments in Franken's two home states, Minnesota and New York, and non-payment in the more than a dozen other states where Franken earned money, usually through appearance and speaking fees. Franken maintained that, after the overpayment, he owed just $4,000 more in taxes, according to an early estimation by his new financial handlers.

The disclosure comes a month and a half after Franken's company, Alan Franken Inc., was charged a $25,000 penalty by the New York State Workers' Compensation Board for not buying workers' comp insurance, as the Star-Tribune reported in mid-March. After an internal investigation, Franken admitted the mistake and paid the fine.

Franken's candidacy was initially greeted with some skepticism from Minnesota Democrats, who wondered whether putting a comedian with a long history of raunchy jokes up against a sitting Senator was a good idea. But Franken raised a significant amount of money, outpacing -- and outspending -- Republican Norm Coleman several quarters in a row. Recent polls have shown the race close, with Coleman leading but near the margin of error.

But Franken's follies could bring a renewed sense of angst to the state's Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party, which since Coleman's election in 2002 has been itching for the opportunity to oust the Republican from office. Coleman won election after the death of incumbent Senator Paul Wellstone, whom Coleman had been trailing in polls.

While Franken retains a good chance at knocking off Coleman -- Minnesota is one of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's top targets -- he has seen his poll numbers slip in recent weeks. A rebound of some sort sooner, rather than later, is hugely important to Franken. Too, his research team, which might have caught the mistake before it was discovered by Republicans and the media, might want to go back and take a look at their candidate's record one more time to avoid future missteps.

MoveOn.org has the launched the first of a series of anti-McCain ads. This one will run in New Mexico and Iowa, according to CBS News.

I think a lot of the debate come the fall, assuming Obama is the nominee, will focus on what is less fair: Using McCain's "100 years" line or using Jeremiah Wright?

In any case, notice that the quotes MoveOn.org uses for McCain and Bush are about a month a part. That's because McCain said his while U.S. forces were still engaged with enemies troops over control of Baghdad, while Bush said his after the city had fallen.

Hillary rolls out Maya Angelou for North Carolina in, er, "Maya":

And Obama gets the support of the SEIU in Indiana:

To continue our earlier post, the Obama campaign has announced two more endorsements today.

Indiana Rep. Baron Hill and California Rep. Lois Capps are both supporting Obama. Hill's vast 9th District is in the southeast corner of Indiana, and includes the university town of Bloomington. This area could play an important role in Obama's chances in the state in the May 6 primary. Capps's 23rd District includes coastal towns from Ventura, north through San Luis Obispo.

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have received superdelegate endorsements today.

Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley will endorse Obama later today, and the Clinton campaign announced this morning that Bill George is backing Clinton. Braley, a freshman lawmaker, previously had supported John Edwards. George is the president of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO.

Obama picked up endorsements yesterday from Kentucky Rep. Ben Chandler and Iowa DNC member Richard Machacek. Clinton received yesterday the backing of Missouri Rep. Ike Skelton.

In the updated RCP Delegate Count, Clinton leads Obama among superdelegates 262-241. Obama leads the overall delegate count 1,730-1,595.

She may have won in Pennsylvania, but apparently nobody's feeling too threatened by Ms. Clinton at this point. The Politico reports on the GOP's Hillary "silent treatment":

Clinton, it seems, has been erased from the picture, Soviet-style. Republicans mostly act like she doesn't exist--an unusual turn of events considering her run of big-state victories and the fact that not so long ago Republican campaign plans were predicated on the idea of Clinton as the Democratic nominee.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has coughed up $500,000 for two anti-Obama ads, timed for two upcoming House special elections.

If the budget gets tight, of course, they could always just give Jeremiah Wright some more screen time.

Turning our attention away from the presidential race slightly, the US is sending a second aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf as a "reminder" to Iran, said Def Sec Robert Gates yesterday.

The administration is concerned not only with Iran's escalating nuclear program, but also the country's support of the Taliban. The Associated Press reports:

Speaking to reporters after meeting with Mexican leaders, Gates said heightening U.S. criticism of Iran and its support for terror groups is not a signal that the administration is laying the groundwork for a strike against Tehran.

Still, he said Iran continues to back the Taliban in Afghanistan.

"I do not have a sense at this point of a significant increase in Iranian support for the Taliban and others opposing the government in Afghanistan," Gates said. "There is, as best I can tell, a continuing flow, but I would still characterize it as relatively modest."

His comments contrasted with those from Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who said last week that he had not seen any new signs of Iranian support for the Taliban.

Gates played down the addition of a second carrier to the Gulf, saying that the number of ships there rises and falls continuously. He said he doesn't expect there to two carriers there for a long time.

Asked if the carrier move went hand in hand with the rising U.S. rhetoric against Iran, Gates said, "I don't see it as an escalation. I think it could be seen, though, as a reminder."

In the past, military officials have said that beefing up the Navy's presence in the Gulf was a way to show that that the U.S. remains committed to the region. And they have acknowledged it also serves as a show of force for other countries there, such as Iran.

Something to keep your eye on.