McCain - "624787"

To kick off next week's "Service to America" tour, the McCain campaign has released this ad:


Who's Playing the Architect?

Here's what we now thus far about the cast for Oliver Stone's much-hyped movie about George W. Bush:

George W. Bush = Josh Brolin

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Laura Bush = Elizabeth Banks
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George HW Bush = James Cromwell
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Barbara Bush = Ellyn Burstyn
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But who's going to play The Architect? New York Magazine thinks they know who has the inside track for the part of Karl Rove.


Buzzing Over Baghdad Jim

Naturally, the Seattle papers are buzzing over the story that Saddam's intelligence services funded Rep. Jim McDermott's 2002 trip to Iraq. The Seattle Times runs a in-depth news story by David Postman and an editorial that gently warns McDermott to be more careful in the future.

The Seattle Post-Intelligencer runs an editorial calling the episode "embarrassing and unfortunate, but nothing more" while affirming that McDermott was "right" about the war. PI columnist Joel Connelly strikes a similar tone:

Biases of this space are well known. I've criticized McDermott's many travels abroad, complained that he neglects the home front, and suggested he retire from Congress.

In 2002, this column wondered whether McDermott had been in a "Hussein asylum" to suggest that Iraqi regime's claims be taken at face value.

The Iraq trip remains a monumentally dumb move, and McD's remarks probably stampeded some Democrats into voting for Bush's war resolution. Still, shouldn't McDermott get chits for resisting the rush to war?

Last but not least cartoonist Eric Devericks of the Seattle Times hit McDermott with this:

devericks.jpg

The Daily 2008

On this day in 1834 Congress censures a president for the first time after Andrew Jackson refused to hand over documents relating to the bank of the United States. Also on this day in 1969, Dwight Eisenhower dies at 78. On to today's top stories:

"McCain to Embark on 'Biography Tour'" (David Jackson, USA Today) Starting next week, McCain will visit schools and military institutions "that have played a significant role in shaping who I am today," as McCain put it in a fundraising letter. As reporter Jackson notes, the goal is to fix McCain's image in voters' minds before the Democrats are able to define him.

"Obama Casts Wide Blame for Financial Crisis and Proposes Homeowner Aid" (Michael Powell and Jeff Zeleny, New York Times) The blame for the financial meltdown, said Obama, should go to lobbyists and politicians, who, in the 1990s, dismantled much of the regulatory framework. As reporters Powell and Zeleny note, there is little difference between Obama's and Clinton's views on the economy.

"Subprime Politics" (Christopher Cooper, Wall Street Journal) Barack Obama hadn't even finished his economic speech, writes reporter Cooper, before the Clinton camp blasted out an email showing that Obama had taken more money from the sub-prime industry than both Clinton or John McCain.

"Romney, Huntsman Join McCain at Lunchtime Fund-Raiser in Salt Lake" (Lisa Riley Roche, Deseret Morning News) Back together, yet this time throwing no mud. Romney and McCain campaigned in Utah, where one helped the other raise over $400,000. Is this the beginning of a beautiful relationship?

"Clinton's Belfast Role Draws Criticism" (Shawn Pogatchnik, Associated Press) Critics in Belfast say that Hillary's self-state role in bringing peace to this corner of the world amounted to little more than christening a symbolic park, which doesn't even exist today.

"Democrats See McCain Losing Western States" (Joseph Curl, Washington Times) In recent years Democrats have made serious inroads in the traditionally Republican Mountain West. Democrats, pointing to McCain's poor showing in those states' primaries, say that the trend will continue in 2008.

"Mutual Appreciation - But No Endorsement - as Bloomy Hosts Obama" (David Saltonstall, New York Daily News) Obama gave his economic address at New York's Cooper Union, where Abraham Lincoln gave one of his most important pre-presidential speeches. Mayor Bloomberg, whom rumors pegs as an Obama guy, introduced this Illinois legislator, fueling rumors of a coming endorsement.

"Obama Would Have Left if Wright Stayed" (Associated Press) In an interview on ABC's "The View" to air today Obama suggest that had Jeremiah Wright not retired, he "wouldn't have felt comfortable staying at the church."

"North Carolina Can Change Race Dynamic" (Nick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal) Hillary made her first stop in North Carolina, where she will need to win if she has any hope of making a late comeback. But Obama holds a sizeable lead in the state and an upset looks unlikely.

Get today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.


National Poll Update

New Pew Research poll (March 19-22) shows the race unchanged versus a month ago: Obama 49, Clinton 39. Pew also reports the following head to head match ups:

Obama 49 - McCain 43
Clinton 49 - McCain 44

New Gallup tracking numbers: Obama 48 - Clinton 44.

Rasmussen has it Clinton 46 - Obama 44.

Overall, Obama leads by 2.9% in the RCP National Average.


The PM Line

Chris Dodd says it's time to end it.

Once bitter primary rivals, now campaign partners.

A Pew poll finds that "nearly a quarter of Democrats (23%) who hold a negative view of Obama believe he is a Muslim."

Newt had some thoughts today on Obama's race speech.

Clinton donors are circulating a petition, "A Declaration of Fairness," to recognize the Michigan and Florida delegations.

Puerto Rico Gov. Anibal Acevedo Vila, an Obama superdelegate, has been indicted.

Is the Clinton campaign having trouble selling out its Elton John fundraising concert?


OR Head to Heads: Split Decision

Rasmussen has new head to head numbers in Oregon (March 26, 500 LV) showing John McCain losing to Barack Obama but beating Hillary Clinton:

McCain 46 - Clinton 40
Obama 48 - McCain 42

This is only one poll, to be sure, but it doesn't help Hillary Clinton's electability/electoral college argument with the superdelegates to see that she'd be in danger of losing a state like Oregon to McCain.


NC Poll: Obama +15

A new Insider Advantage poll for North Carolina has Obama in a comfortable lead with about five weeks until the May 6 primary:

Obama 49
Clinton 34
Undecided 17

In the RCP Average for North Carolina Obama has a 12.7-point lead (50 to 37.3).


Bloomberg Rumor Mill

So Michael Bloomberg's introduction of Obama at today's economic speech at Cooper Union is fueling speculation of a coming endorsement. Coy as ever, Bloomberg is playing it safe, but, if they weren't already, rumors of a third party run for him should be six feet under by now.

In any case, you can read Obama's economic address here.


McCain's 'Jump Start'

Over at CBS News, Vaughn Ververs writes that despite what should be a Democratic year Republicans are feeling a "palpable sense of relief these days."

For starters, McCain may be uniquely positioned to run against either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Against Obama, the likely matchup for the moment at least, McCain may have the wave of change to fight against but could Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani or Mike Huckabee pose the same threat to the Illinois senator among crucial independent voters that McCain does? Would any of them have the upper hand on Clinton on national security and experience? And could they attract the disgruntled supporters among the loser of the Democratic fight the way he has (according to this Gallup poll)?

Even more importantly in a quest for 270 Electoral Votes, McCain appears to be positioned to wage a campaign covering a much bigger map than Republicans have in recent cycles. As a westerner, he should be better able to fend off Democratic encroachments in states like Colorado and New Mexico and perhaps even eat into their west coast strongholds of Washington and Oregon. Maybe, just maybe, he could even make Democrats sweat a little bit in the holy grail of the Electoral College -- California.

Republican strategists dream of McCain playing well even in some Democratic must-have states, like Michigan where he is a familiar figure and where Democratic fighting over the primary may hurt. Other states McCain might target are Minnesota (where the GOP convention will be), Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and even New Jersey. While Democrats dream of forcing the Republican party into a retreat toward the South and their do-or-die states such as Ohio and Missouri, McCain may force them to play as much defense as offense, something that would be a huge victory given the national landscape.

Ververs goes on to cite recent polling data that shows McCain matching up well against either candidate, as well as putting up good numbers in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. All this, Ververs says, means McCain is off to a "good start."

Indeed, and that's about as far as we should go right now. Democrats have yet to really sink their teeth into McCain (and vice versa) on many issues which could resonate in November -- the war and the economy. McCain has the luxury of time right now, to not only prepare his election team and ground game but also to brush up on hot-topic issues like the economy. Considering the economy should dominate the coming months, McCain should have no excuse for coming off uninformed when the general really heats up.

With the Democrats in disarray, the GOP has been handed an surprise gift: McCain has broken out of the gates to a significant lead. The question is whether he can sustain it.



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