March 4 Election Night Thread
Posted by Kyle Trygstad | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
12:46AM - Fox and MSNBC just called Texas for Hillary with about 75% reporting. We won't have a clear picture of the delegate breakdown from either Texas or Ohio until tomorrow or even later, so be sure to check back in to get the full implications of Clinton's comeback. What can say now with absolute certainty is that this thing is no where near finished. - BLAKE DVORAK
12:30AM - On Fox, late-shift host Bret Baier is teasing that the network is close to calling Texas, which most likely means Hillary pulled it out.
Only...she might not win a majority of Texas' delegates. When the race is called, it's just the popular vote, not the ongoing caucuses, which will allot a third of the delegates. A helpful reminder if you're looking for an excuse to hit the sack. - BLAKE DVORAK
11:48PM Stiff medicine from Clinton in her speech tonight. The thumping she delivered in Ohio, despite being massively outspent by Obama and his allies in big labor, is striking and will add to her claim moving forward - provided she wins Texas. Right now she's opened up a tiny 2-point lead in Texas with 53% reporting, just under 50,000 votes. If that holds, we are headed for seven more weeks of hand to hand combat between these two candidates - and Howard Dean is headed for an ulcer. - TOM BEVAN
10:56PM - I should have just waited another minute: The networks are calling Ohio for Clinton. - BLAKE DVORAK
10:51PM - With 53% reporting, Clinton holds a 16-point lead in Ohio: 662,843 to 470,067. Even with many precincts still coming, including Cuyahoga, it's looking unlikely that Obama can catch her.
In Texas, with 32% reporting, Clinton has just taken a lead: 771,922 to 753,325. - BLAKE DVORAK
10:47PM - Some highlights of McCain's victory speech:
I will leave it to my opponent to argue that we should abrogate trade treaties, and pretend the global economy will go away and Americans can secure our future by trading and investing only among ourselves....
I will leave it to my opponent to claim that they can keep companies and jobs from going overseas by making it harder for them to do business here at home....
Nothing is inevitable in America. We are the captains of our fate. We're not a country that prefers nostalgia to optimism; a country that would rather go back than forward. We're the world's leader, and leaders don't pine for the past and dread the future. We make the future better than the past. We don't hide from history. We make history...
- BLAKE DVORAK
9:49PM - Texas exits, like Ohio's, show Clinton holding her traditional blocs of white men and women, low-income voters (51-49), but with the added benefit of Hispanic voters. Clinton won Hispanic men 58-40 and Hispanic women 66-33. Overall, she won Hispanic voters 63-35. - BLAKE DVORAK
9:44PM - The populous Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) counties have not reported results yet. This plays a huge role in why Clinton is currently up 20 points, according to CNN's results reporting. Those two counties should bring the race closer as they begin reporting. --KYLE TRYGSTAD
9:42PM - Clinton's Rhode Island victory officially ended Obama's 11-state win streak. --KYLE TRYGSTAD
9:13PM - In a conference call with reporters, the Clinton campaign is claiming caucus malfeasance by the Obama campaign, including signing up caucus goers before the 7:00 opening time, as well as locking the doors early, keeping out eligible Clinton supporters standing in line. Clinton campaign attorney Lynn Utrecht said the campaign has received "hundreds of complaints" from "all over the state." Obama campaign lawyer Bob Bauer jumped on the call as a questioner, and got into a rather heated verbal battle with Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson. Bauer told Wolfson he was attacking the caucus process, and the two argued over who filed a lawsuit against whom after the Nevada caucuses. --KYLE TRYGSTAD
9:06pm - ABC News reports: "According to a senior Huckabee staffer the plan is for Huckabee to return to Little Rock late tonight and speak with Senator John McCain tomorrow during the day to discuss his concession plans. He knows it's over but wants to concede in such a way as to be in line with his party's candidate." - TOM BEVAN
9:03PM - Point is moot. McCain clinched. - TOM BEVAN
8:53PM - Tom spoke of embarrassment should McCain fail to clinch. Two things that could make that embarrassment even worse: Word is Huckabee is preparing to concede tomorrow -- possibly, if McCain clinches and after meeting with him. Word also is, via CNN, that President Bush is ready to endorse McCain tomorrow -- possibly, if he reaches 1,191. Tomorrow could be a big day for McCain, but only, it seems, if he clinches. - BLAKE DVORAK
8:25PM - In Ohio at least, Obama failed to pick off some of Clinton's traditional voting blocs, according to CNN exits.
Clinton won white women and white men; 44 and over voters; and voters making less than $50,000. She also closely won union households 52-47. - BLAKE DVORAK
7:59PM - McCain is primed to clinch the nomination tonight, CNN keeps talking about the banner he's ready to unfurl in Texas touting the fact he's hit 1,191 total delegates. How embarrassing would it be if he fell a few delegates short of the magic number tonight? - TOM BEVAN
7:57PM - CNN's exit polls break down the vote by region. In the all-important Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Obama leads 59%-41%, while Clinton leads Northeastern Ohio as a whole, 61%-39%. The votes are close in Central (Columbus) and Southwestern (Cincinnati) Ohio, with Obama leading with 51% in both. In the rural and small town-strewn Northwestern part of the state (Toledo), Obama leads 55%-44%. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
7:50PM Some Fox exits now. Things looking good for Clinton:
Texas
Hispanics: Clinton 64, Obama 35.
Late-deciders: Clinton 66, Obama 34.
Women: Clinton 54, Obama 46.
Ohio
Top issue: economy -- Clinton 52, Obama 46
US trade -- 81% say NAFTA takes jobs away, 10% says it creates jobs, 6% says it has no effect.
Of those who think NAFTA takes jobs away, they are choosing Clinton 51, Obama 48.
Union households: Clinton 56, Obama 43
Let's not be hasty, but those aren't bad numbers for Clinton. - BLAKE DVORAK
7:41PM - Despite Jonathan Alter's math, tonight for Hillary a win is a win is a win. If she's able to squeak out victories in Texas and Ohio, I find it hard to believe she won't carry on, despite what the math says. The Clinton camp's spin will be that they broke the winning streak, that they've reclaimed the momentum and, most importantly, they will push the argument that Obamania is over and that Democratic voters are expressing buyer's remorse. On the other hand, if she loses either state, despite what I've heard from some folks over the past couple days, I don't see how she can continue. The pressure from the Democratic establishment to drop out will be crushing, and that's when Alter's math will be the cold hard truth is used to get her to pack it in. - TOM BEVAN
7:14PM - Some exits numbers from CNN:
In Ohio, 43 percent of GOP primary voters said the economy was the most important issue this election, while 22 percent cited Iraq, 19 percent ranked illegal immigration, and 15 percent said terrorism.
In Texas, 26 percent of Republican primary voters said the economy was the top concern, followed by 23 percent who cited terrorism, 21 percent who noted Iraq, and 16 percent who said illegal immigration.
And Jim Geraghty, via a source who has two sets:
For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.
The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.
-BLAKE DVORAK
7:02 PM - Vermont goes for McCain and Obama. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
6:55 PM - The Cleveland Plain Dealer reported earlier that poll watchers in Ohio are seeing large numbers of Republican voters taking part in the Democratic primary.
In the Republican roost of Chagrin Falls, veteran poll worker Liz McFadden was amazed at the number of people jumping the party's ship. Democrats accounted for 70 percent of the voters in her precinct, one of seven at the village's high school.
"That's a complete reversal of what it normally is, even more so," she said. "I've never seen a switch like this."
With the Republican nomination all but locked up by McCain, are Ohio Republicans trying to pick their challenger? Are they voting for whom they think McCain will have an easier time beating or whom they would rather have in office if a Democrat wins the general? The voter turnout numbers will be interesting to watch. --KYLE TRYGSTAD

