The cornerstone of Hillary Clinton's strategy over the course of the campaign has been to contrast her greatest perceived strength - experience - with the relatively thin resume of Senator Obama. Yet despite being on her fourth or fifth iteration of this message, she's clearly failed to make the case with Democratic primary voters that her experience makes her a significantly better choice than Obama.

So why has she failed? It's not because Democrats don't value experience. Indeed most polls suggest Democrats consider experience nearly as important as their desire for change, and Clinton has maintained large advantages over Obama on the question of experience throughout the primary season.

What Clinton has failed to do is to frame the experience question in a way that resonated with Democratic voters. "Ready on day one" is a catchy enough phrase, but it puts the emphasis in the wrong place by making the contrast with Obama implicit rather than explicit.

Put another way, Hillary never needed to convince Democratic voters that she was "ready to lead" - she's the most well known Democratic presidential candidate ever. She needed to convince voters that Barack Obama was not.

To do this effectively Clinton should have been reminding voters over and over that just four short years ago Barack Obama was in the Illinois state legislature (voting present, no less) and now he's running to be the leader of the free world. Put in that context, the magnitude of the jump Obama is seeking to make suddenly gains perspective, and Clinton has voters pondering exactly the question she wants: wow, is he really ready for this?

Clinton has also done a miserable job of leveraging her experience as First Lady against Obama, even allowing him to question its legitimacy on occasion. Again, it's not enough for Clinton to tell voters about her accomplishments as First Lady, but to frame them in way that makes Obama look embarrassingly small by comparison. Something like:

"Thirteen years ago, before Barack ever though about entering public life, I was challenging the Communist dictatorship in China over the issue of human rights and helping broker peace in Northern Ireland. While he was busy voting present in the Illinois state legislature, I was working to tackle serious issues across America and around the globe."

Translation: Clinton's been playing on the world stage for years. Obama's been playing in Springfield, Illinois.

The beauty of this strategy is that it's not what most people would characterize as "going negative." Clinton would certainly be demeaning Obama's experience publicly, but that's the point: to keep Democratic voters focused on the thinness of his accomplishments prior to entering the Senate.

And if Senator Obama and his campaign bristled at the framing or the tone of the comparisons, so much the better. Clinton would still have shifted the discussion to make Obama battle on her terms and her turf.

Instead, Clinton has allowed Obama to waltz through this campaign touting his experience in the Illinois state legislature as if it were on par with being in the United States Senate or even with Clinton's experience as First Lady. Without an aggressive effort by Clinton to remind Democratic voters of the quantum (or perhaps we should say "audacious") leap Obama is seeking to take, Obama has sufficiently blurred the distinctions on the question of experience and at the same time used his inspiring rhetoric to focus voters' attention elsewhere.

The problem for Clinton is she should have started framing the experience question months ago. With only a few days left until a crucial vote in Ohio and Texas that could effectively eliminate her from the race, it's probably too late.

Keeping with recent history, Florida is going to be a key battleground this year. If Republicans want to have any chance of holding onto the White House they'll need to keep the Sunshine State in the win column. A new poll by Mason Dixon (Feb 21-24, 625 RV) shows that, at least for the moment, McCain appears to be doing just that, beating Obama and Clinton by healthy margins of 10 and 9 points, respectively:

McCain 47
Obama 37
Undecided 16

McCain 49
Clinton 40
Undecided 11

How interesting. After a poll two three days ago showing Obama taking the lead in Texas, Insider Advantage has a new poll out in the Lone Star state showing (February 27, 591 Dem LV, MoE 4.0%) him falling back and Clinton retaking the lead:

Clinton 47 (+1)
Obama 43 (-4)
Undecided 10 (+3)

Obama's lead in the RCP Average for Texas is back down to 1.6%

So what's all of Obama's criticism of NAFTA worth? According to this Canadian news report, a senior adviser to the campaign assured Canada's ambassador "don't worry, it's just campaign rhetoric."

(h/t Election Central)

UPDATE: Canada is denying the whole thing.

Obama has pulled ahead of Clinton in a new Rasmussen poll in Texas (Feb. 27, 503 Dem LV, MoE +/- 4%). With just 5 days before the Texas primary, the three most recent polls in the state have all showed Obama with the lead.

Texas
Obama 48 (+3 vs. last poll, Feb. 24)
Clinton 44 (-2)
Undecided 8

Obama holds a 2.6-point lead in the RCP Average for Texas

In a new Pennsylvania poll by Rasmussen (Feb. 26, 820 Dem LV, MoE +/- 3%), Clinton's lead continues to dwindle, with a little less than two months before the state's April 22 primary.

Pennsylvania
Clinton 46
Obama 42
Undecided 12

Clinton holds a 9.0-point lead in the RCP Average for Pennsylvania

Fox News' James Rosen had a opportunity to sit down with Bill Buckley not so long ago:

I think it's fair to say that if Buckley's one career regret was that he wasn't able to play the harpsichord and piano at the level of "proficiency" he sought, he came out ahead in life. I mean, the man played Carnegie Hall.

Joe Klein jumps on John McCain's comment that if we left Iraq al-Qaeda might possibly end up "taking a country:"

The sadness here is that McCain knows better. He knows the complexities of the world, and the region. But I suspect he's overplaying his Iraq hand in order to win favor with the wingnuts in his party. That is extremely unfortunate: As McCain should know better than anyone, it is extremely dishonorable for politicians to play bloody-shirt games when the nation is at war.

Don't all of Klein's gripes apply equally to Barack Obama and his promise for immediate phased withdrawal from Iraq, irrespective of the circumstances on the ground in January 2009? Presumably, Obama knows the "complexities" of the region; Obama's plan is clearly an attempt to win favor with the "wingnuts in his party"; and Obama is arguably playing more "bloody-shirt games" with the issue than McCain - especially when you consider his vote to cut off funding for the war last year.

Yet Joe's "sadness" is reserved only for John McCain. Go figure.

On this day in 1854, the Republican Party is founded in Wisconsin. On to today's top stories:

"Bloomberg Says He Won't Run but Will Be Active" (Diane Cardwell, New York Times) He's said it before, if not in so many words nor so definitively. But I think publishing an op-ed for the NYT, in which he writes "I am not -- and will not be -- a candidate for president," closes the door.

"Clash on Iraq Could Be McCain-Obama Preview" (Michael Shear and Shailagh Murray, Washington Post) Poor Hillary. The debate is already moving beyond her. The two likely -- though not equally so -- nominees got after it over Iraq and the presence of al Qaeda yesterday, with John McCain criticizing Obama's debate answers and Obama responding forcefully.

"Presidential Campaigns Joust Across Texas" (Lisa Sandberg and Alan Bernstein, Houston Chronicle) But that doesn't mean Hillary is giving up yet. With polls showing Obama taking the lead in this important primary state, husband Bill, unleashed once more, did his duty on the populist front, something quite different than the tune he was singing during his own candidacy.

"McCain's Canal Zone Birth Prompts Queries About Whether That Rules Him Out" (Carl Hulse, New York Times) Does McCain have a potential constitutional obstacle barring him from the White House because he was born outside the United States -- as opposed to being "natural born" as the Constitution says? No, he doesn't. But it's an interesting legal question nonetheless as is the question of whether Democrats try to pursue this.

"Lewis Says He's Supporting Obama" (Bob Kemper, Atlanta Journal-Constitution) Explaining his choice of Obama over Clinton, Rep. John Lewis said, "It's a movement. It's a spiritual event." (And here we thought this was just a presidential campaign.) Lewis' support is nice boost to Obama, adding yet another sought-after superdelegate, but at this stage it probably doesn't matter all that much for general voters.

"Young America May Lift Democrats, Shape Agenda" (Elizabeth Holmes, Wall Street Journal) As reporter Holmes notes, across 18 states this primary season, youth turnout made up 13% of the total vote in the Democratic races, up from 9% four years ago. It must be all that free college education Obama is offering.

"McCain Retools Immigration Stance" (Julie Davis, Associated Press) That McCain has somewhat altered his immigration position isn't necessarily a new story. That immigration will likely figure heavily in the coming election, however, and McCain's transformation a large part of it, is just one of the burgeoning undercurrent to watch.

"Clinton Links Her Fate to Economy" (Mike Glover, Associated Press) While Bill was in Texas, Hillary was in Ohio, preaching a similar economic message on which she is betting her March 4 chances.

"Insults, Apologies Fuel Obama's Rise" (Ben Smith, The Politico) Reporter Smith notes the following: "In the course of the primary campaign, and perhaps in a preview of the fall election drama, Senator Barack Obama has accepted the apologies of three United States senators, a former senator, CNN and various lower-level supporters of Senator Hillary Clinton."

Get today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.

The defection of Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), a leader of the civil rights movement, may be just the beginning of black supporters of Hillary Clinton switching their support to Barack Obama. In fact, a black state lawmaker and superdelegate from Texas also announced yesterday that she would no longer support Clinton.

And as Mahtesian and Cullen write in the Politico, the pressure on black officials to switch may increase as they realize not supporting Obama could be detrimental to their own political careers. Obama has regularly won large majorities of the black vote throughout the primary process, so many black pols who support Clinton not only are not supporting a black politician with a realistic chance of winning the presidency, they are supporting someone whom a majority of their constituents do not support. Always a risky move.

"I'm listening..." Ben Bernanke today said the Fed is open for further rate cuts.

"They didn't have a plan" - Leon Panetta on Clinton's troubles.

Invoking every qualifier imaginable, Jay Severin has heard Hillary will withdraw on Friday.

Maybe Hillary just can't bear to go on without the support of Rep. John Lewis...

Radio host Bill Cunningham, last seen talking about "Barack Hussein Obama," is pulling a "Coulter."

"To boldly go..." Bill says Hillary is best for Houston's space industry.

Sen. Kay Baily Hutchison puts the rumors to rest.

"Demand a recount" -- The New York Times remembers Bill Buckley's 1965 run for mayor.

The French Ambassador to the U.S. talks about the excitement among his people for the presidential race: "They want forecast and predictions." Ask, and ye shall receive.

The European Commission has fined Microsoft $1.35 billion. In response, Microsoft said it would take it off Europe's World War II tab.

Obama is hearing "Voices":