Little State, Big Love
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Just how crazy is the race for president on the Democratic side this year? So crazy that Rhode Island matters. Always overlooked and under appreciated, little old Rhode Island is suddenly getting big love:
Calling New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton a "world-class change maker," former President Bill Clinton offered a passionate case for his wife's presidential campaign yesterday before students and admirers at Bryant University.
"No state in America has been better for me or our family," Clinton said of Rhode Island. "I have tried to be there for you. I hope on March 4, you'll be there for her."
That's laying it on a bit thick, even for Bubba.
Clinton is favored to win in Rhode Island, but Obama has a local connection that is making them extra nervous: Michelle Obama's brother, Craig Robinson, is the head men's basketball coach at Brown University.
Plouffe: "Clinton Already Had Her Red Phone Moment"
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On a conference call with reporters, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe was asked to comment on Hillary Clinton's new ad hitting Obama on national security experience by posing the question of who voters want to answer the phone in the White House at 3 am when something terrible has happened. Plouffe responded:
"Senator Clinton has already had her red phone moment. It was a decision whether to allow George Bush to invade Iraq, and she answered affirmatively. She did not read the national intelligence estimate, so she didn't do her homework either. She still, curiously, tries to suggest that that was not a vote for war, but it most assuredly was.
So this is about what you say when you answer that phone. What kind of judgment you demonstrate. Barack Obama has shown terrific judgment. He showed obviously good judgment on Iraq, showing the right judgment on what kind of diplomacy we should have. I think increasingly voters see him as someone that they believe as Commander in Chief will keep them safe in terms of the judgment he will display."
The Daily 2008 - Late Edition
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Full flights and foul weather are the excuses for today's late edition of the Daily 2008. So, who can we thank for this glorious extra day which comes just once every four years? Hail Caesar, who in 46 BC reorganized the Roman calendar and included the first "leap day," which has undergone some modifications over the years. On to today's top stories:
"Obama Cutting Into Clinton's Edge Among Superdelegates" (Michael Cooper and Sarah Wheaton, New York Times) The Obama campaign says it has won 39 superdelegates since Feb. 5, some former Clintonites.
"HRC Announces Best Fundraising Month Yet" (Ben Smith, The Politico) The good news for Clinton in an otherwise terrible month is that she managed to raise an astounding $35 million.
"Obama: The $50 Million Man" (Christi Parsons and Rick Pearson, Chicago Tribune) This is the bad news.
"Obama Accuses McCain of Flawed Economics, Pledges Relief" (Todd Gillman, Dallas Morning News) It's just good to note that in the belly of this story reporter Gillman notes this Obama line: "If you work in this country you should not be poor." That's Obamanomics for you.
"In Texas Appearance, McCain Vows to Get bin Laden" (Aman Batheja, McClatchy Newspapers) Repeating his "to the gates of Hell" line, McCain went hard after Obama not only on national security but also NAFTA.
"State's Democratic Party Braces For Lawsuit" (Jay Root, Ft. Worth Star-Telegram) Rumors sprung up last night that aides to Clinton's campaign were looking at an "imminent" lawsuit over Texas' complicated primary system. State party officials fear that if a suit is forthcoming it could delay the March 4 primary.
"Bill Would Remove Doubt on Presidential Eligibility" (Carl Hulse, New York Times) Following up on his story yesterday, reporter Hulse notes that McCain isn't worried about any constitutional barriers to his election and even that a Democratic senator Claire McCaskill has introduced a bill that would legislate away any lingering doubt. Talk about bipartisanship.
"Race Watched Round the World" (Laurie Goering, Chicago Tribune) Citizens of the world (and a certain Tribune reporter) marvel that the United States is not as racist and sexist as previously thought. Heck, they might even want to emigrate here one day.
"Survey Finds Most Don't Think McCain Too Old For Presidency" (Jennifer Harper, Washington Times) The septuagenarian breathes a sigh of relief.
Get today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.
Rhetoric A Weakness?
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Former Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson writes in the Washington Post that Clinton and McCain should not use Obama's speaking acumen in attacks against him. History has shown that vocal eloquence is no weakness, and "rhetoric" was not always a four-letter word.
"Civil rights leaders possessed few weapons but eloquence -- and their words hardly came cheap. Every president eventually needs the tools of rhetoric, to stiffen national resolve in difficult times or to honor the dead unfairly taken.
It is not a failure for Obama to understand and exercise this element of leadership; it is an advantage.
Some Obama critics go even further, accusing him of inducing a "creepy," "cultish" "euphoria." A candidate delivers a good stump speech, adds a dose of personal magnetism and suddenly he is a sorcerer, practicing the dark arts of demagoguery.
But Obamamania is pretty mild stuff compared with our rhetorical history."
Gerson writes that Obama is the next in a series of the country's leaders able "to rise on the swell of their own words," after Hubert Humphrey and Ronald Reagan. Should Obama be the nominee, Gerson argues, McCain should throw out any criticism of Obama's speeches, and focus on his ideology.
"Why does Obama want to fight terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan but not in Iraq? How would it advance the war on terrorism to grant al-Qaeda's fondest wish -- an untimely American retreat from the Middle East? Would Obama really devote his first year in office to a series of surrender summits with the leaders of Cuba, Iran, Venezuela and North Korea?
These are serious criticisms; the argument against rhetoric is not. Obama's political weakness is that he is too liberal, not that he is too eloquent."
Clinton's Daisy
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Everyone is buzzing about Clinton's new ad:
In response, the Obama campaign re-released its ad from October featuring General McPeak:
TX & OH Polls
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Reuters/C-Span/Zogby is out with the first installment of tracking polls in Texas and Ohio (Feb 26-28) which will continue through next Tuesday. In Texas, Obama holds a six point lead according to the survey:
Texas
Obama 48
Clinton42
McCain 53
Huckabee 27
Paul 11
In the RCP Averages for Texas, Obama now leads by 2.4% and McCain leads by 20.2%
In Ohio, Clinton holds a two-point lead:
Ohio
Clinton 44
Obama 42
McCain 62
Huckabee 19
Paul 8
In the RCP Average for Ohio, Clinton's lead is down to 6.2% and McCain's lead bulged to 32.0%
Why Republicans Still Have a Chance
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Barack Obama is feeling pretty sure of himself these days. Even before he has secured the nomination, Mr. Obama is spending as much time parrying John McCain's attacks as Hillary Clinton's. This week, for instance, Messrs. McCain and Obama got into it over the Iraq war and the presence of al Qaeda in Iraq, perhaps offering voters a preview of the coming fall blockbuster.
In fact, the general election could begin as early as next week if Mrs. Clinton loses the big March 4 primaries and drops out, and it could be a sizzler. A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll released this week shows Mr. McCain holding a slight lead over Mr. Obama (44% to 42%), though the result is well within the survey's margin of error.
That Mr. McCain puts up such a strong showing ought to worry Democrats, especially since the political atmospherics continue to favor their party this year. Even more worrisome, however, are the poll's internal findings, which show that although Mr. McCain is not necessarily conservatives' choice for president, he might be the best choice for Republicans.
Those troubling signs for Democrats include the following: When it comes to independent voters, Mr. McCain more than holds his own with Mr. Obama (41% to 39%); on the question of who could best manage the economy, which a plurality of respondents consider the most important issue, Mr. McCain holds an eight-point lead (42% to 34%); on the question of leadership, Mr. McCain has a six-point lead; on illegal immigration, Mr. McCain has an 11-point lead (40% to 29%); on Iraq, Mr. McCain has a 13-point lead (47% to 34%); on protecting the country from terrorism, Mr. McCain has a 37-point lead (58% to 21%); and on the question of experience, Mr. McCain has a 31-point lead (53% to 22%).
The poll's news isn't all bad for Mr. Obama. He beats his potential rival on health care (44% to 30%) and on the question of which candidate would change the way things are done in Washington (55% to 20%). The two candidates split evenly on the question of integrity and honesty -- not a bad result for Mr. McCain, considering he's a veteran politician who has haunted the corridors of power for more than two decades.
Of course Hillary Clinton once also enjoyed an edge over Mr. Obama on many of these questions. But primaries are fights for the base of the parties; general elections are a fight for the middle. At least at this early stage, Mr. McCain is in a far better position for the general election than recent electoral trends and Bush fatigue would imply.
John McCain continued his attacks today on Obama over Iraq.
Is Obama feeling the McCain heat? "We're talking two years from now before we would have combat troops out of Iraq," he said today. "The notion that this is somehow a precipitous withdrawal that I'm proposing just isn't borne out by facts." That's not a flip-flop; it's the same thing said to a different audience.
Citing the progressive and conservative label, Obama leaves liberals out in the cold.
Blame Mark Penn, says Harold Ickes. This is getting ugly.
On that NAFTA/Canada story earlier, here's the Obama campaign statement: "When Senator Obama says that he will forcefully act to make NAFTA a better deal for American workers, he means it," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton. "Both Canada and Mexico should know that, as president, Barack Obama will do what it takes to create and protect American jobs and strengthen the American economy -- that includes amending NAFTA to include labor and environmental standards."
Mike Huckabee, fighting the, well, fighting the fight.
Howard Dean: The Republican field "looks like the 1950s and talks like the 1850s." As opposed to, say, the Democratic field in 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988...and if Republicans are talking like the 1850s, when the GOP was the anti-slavery party.... this metaphor has run its course.
The news keeps getting worse for Roger Clemens: The FBI has opened an investigation on him.
Beating everyone to the punch, Ralph Nader has already chosen his running mate.
Huckabee's latest (last?) Texas ad:
Nat'l Poll: Obama Up 9
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A new national poll from The Pew Research Center (Feb. 20-24, 633 Dem RV, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows Obama well ahead of Clinton after a 17-point swing since the last poll.
Obama 49 (+11 vs. last poll, Jan. 30-Feb. 2)
Clinton 40 (-6)
Obama leads the RCP National Average by 7.5 points
In head-to-head matchups with McCain (1,240 RV, MoE +/- 3.5%), Pew finds both Democratic candidates would win.
Clinton 50 - McCain 45
Obama 50 - McCain 43
Clinton Raises $35M In February
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The Clinton campaign announced today that it had raised $35 million in February. This is welcoming news for Clinton, whose poll numbers continue to slag in the upcoming primary states of Ohio and Texas. Some thought Clinton's fundraising could be in trouble after the candidate loaned her campaign $5 million just before Super Tuesday Feb. 5.
Reporters were invited to listen to a conference call with the campaign's finance committee today. During the call, campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said the campaign had more than doubled the $14 million it raised in January, which up until now had been its best fundraising month. He also said the campaign has raised more than $167 million since the start of the race, including $145 million in primary money.
According to McAuliffe and Clinton finance director Jonathan Mantz, the campaign's internet fundraising "exploded" after Clinton loaned it $5 million at the end of January.
"We have the resources to play in the big states coming up: Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont, and the states beyond," McAuliffe said.
"This race is, to quote a former president, 'tight as a tick,'" said strategist Harold Ickes, who recently joined the campaign. "Hillary is behind by only 93 delegates. That is just a whisker. We are confident that gap will be substantially narrowed as we go forward in this process."
Ickes also reminded listeners that there are 15 states and territories that still have not voted, and that superdelegates will play a big role in the nominating process (ed note: Ickes is a superdelegate). He said the press has been giving Obama "a pass," but the Clinton campaign expects that to end now that Obama has taken the frontrunner position.

