Potomac Primary Election Thread
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12:00AM- Out of 134 cities and counties in Virginia, Clinton won 33. None of her 33 came from Northern Virginia or Southeastern Virginia, the two largest population centers in the state. In fact, if you except tiny Colonial Heights located 20 miles south of Richmond, Clinton's victories came strictly in the western and southwestern portion of the state. Also, Obama won 10 of the 11 congressional districts. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
11:09PM - The RCP delegate count on the Dem side is: Obama 1231, Clinton 1196. Due to the Democrats' proportional system, that spread could fluctuate greatly either way, but it's going be difficult if not impossible for Clinton to retake the lead. Which means that unless one drops out, this thing will go to the convention.
Now if Obama carries Wisconsin next week, the pressure on Clinton to end it will grow tremendously. She's trying to hang on until March 4, when Texas and Ohio vote, but almost no one in the party wants this thing to go to the convention. If Clinton can keep it close, using her superdelegates to take the nomination might be tolerable. But if it isn't close, Clinton risks being seen as stealing the nomination, which would tear the party apart. - BLAKE DVORAK
10:46PM - In two competitive Congressional primaries held tonight in Maryland, early results are not good for incumbents Al Wynn, a Democrat, and Wayne Gilchrest, a Republican. Wynn trails his opponent, foundation executive Donna Edwards, by 13 points, with 11% of precincts reporting. Gilchrest is down by 21 points as State Senator Andy Harris jumped out to an early lead, with just 5% of precincts in. There is a real chance that two long-time incumbent members of Congress will lose their seats tonight. - REID WILSON
10:27PM - As Major Garret just noted on Fox, Obama cut into Hillary's support among women, Hispanics, older voters, and lower income Democrats tonight. Even though everyone saw this coming, it's still a very big night for Obama. At least in the mid-Atlantic region, he's growing his base. It's no wonder, as Kyle noted, that Clinton is acting as if tonight never happened. - BLAKE DVORAK
10:15PM - CNN's Peter Hamby notes that this is the second election night in a row that Clinton has not congratulated Obama on his victories in her post-election speech. She also did not congratulate him this past Saturday after Obama swept that day's races. "The courtesy of conceding a primary or caucus loss -- and then congratulating your opponent -- is by no means required. But it has become standard practice during campaign season."
In their speeches tonight, Obama and McCain were clearly focusing on each other. Obama mentioned McCain's name a couple of times, while McCain used the word "hope" a few times as well. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
10:07PM - According to exit polls, Obama won the Hispanic vote in both Virginia and Maryland 53%-47%. He carried the black vote with at least 88% in both states. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
9:47PM - NBC and CNN call D.C. for McCain - KYLE TRYGSTAD
9:30PM - All networks call Maryland for Obama and McCain. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
9:25PM - Via ABC News, a statement from McCain communication director Jill Hazelbaker: "After tonight it is mathematically impossible for Governor Huckabee to secure the nomination. With regard to VA, Of course we'd like to win every race by wide margins, but we are accumulating the delegates we need to become the Republican nominee. Going forward, we will continue to work to unite the Republican party to defeat a liberal Democrat in November."
Translation: If Huckabee wants to remain in McCain's good graces, get out. - BLAKE DVORAK
9:09PM - With not all the results in yet, Obama won with at least 60% in all the right places in Virginia: Northern Virginia, Virginia Beach and Norfolk, and in the Richmond suburbs of Henrico and Chesterfield, where he took more than 70%. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
8:47PM - I would say that that seals it: Huckabee's done. It is not mathematically possible for him to win the nomination. Moreover, if Huckabee continues, he risks becoming a joke, which certainly won't help with a possible VP nod or any future run. But part of Huckabee's success is that he continually confounds both conventional wisdom and the odds. Pushing forward when everyone told him it was over has gotten him this far. So who knows what he'll decide. - BLAKE DVORAK
8:33PM - Good signs for the McCain camp before the networks called the race were his sizeable leads in the Richmond suburbs of Henrico and Chesterfield counties, the Hampton Roads cities of Norfolk and Virginia Beach, as well as Arlington and Alexandria in Northern Virginia, where Fairfax County, as Blake wrote earlier, is likely to follow suit. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
8:31PM - FOX and CNN call Virginia for McCain. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
8:25PM - More bad news for the Clinton campaign on a night filled with it: Deputy campaign manager Mike Henry resigned on Monday, though he was still in the office today, The Fix reports. Henry, author of a controversial memo that argued the campaign should skip Iowa, was brought on by former campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, who was fired over the weekend. - REID WILSON
8:15PM - In Virginia, the northern county of Fairfax, part of the Washington metro area and heavily Democratic, is still out. McCain should win those voters, such as they are, by a substantial margin. - BLAKE DVORAK
8:00PM - Instant call in D.C. for Obama by MSNBC. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
7:55PM - Polls close in D.C. in 5 minutes. We should anticipate a similarly quick call for Obama as we saw in Virginia. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
7:45PM - A judge in Maryland is keeping polls open in Maryland until 9:30, reportedly because of traffic. Traffic has been bad all over the D.C. area today, largely because of the freezing rain that has been falling most of the day here. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
7:36PM - ABC's Rick Klein expresses the kind of befuddlement that a lot people probably feel about what's going on in VA:
This is a problematic evening early for McCain. He can't put Huckabee away -- it's sort of astounding that Huck keeps winning. Again, this won't make Huckabee the nominee. But how is this guy still winning?
I'm sure that comment would have the Huckster grinning that big, "aw shucks" grin. - TOM BEVAN
7:35PM - Based on exit polls, Huckabee carried independents in Virginia 43%-34%. Independents and moderates are often thought to be crucial to McCain's base. Huckabee also won Republicans by 2 points. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
7:28PM - The line on Obama for a couple weeks now is that the more voters get to know him, the better he does. Hence, a long campaign would suit his interests more than Clinton's. The negative of course was that unless Obama could get some serious face time with voters, he would be at a disadvantage. But at some point a campaign takes on a life of its own and a candidate's presence isn't as necessary as it was in earlier states. If it doesn't, it eventually folds (e.g., Huckabee). For all the demographic reasons Obama will sweep the Potomac Primary, I wonder if tonight is the moment he crosses that threshold from upstart phenomenon to juggernaut. - BLAKE DVORAK
7:20PM - Shepard Smith on FOX just said the exits show Obama winning 66% of the vote in Virginia which, if it holds, would be another monumental thumping for Clinton. And he will have done it in a big primary state with 48% of the white vote. - TOM BEVAN
7:18PM - Adding to Blake's post earlier, McCain's showing in Southeast Virginia seems surprisingly low. McCain should have gotten a better margin among military families in Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth and Virginia Beach. - REID WILSON
7:15PM - Adding to Kyle's post, VA exits show in the conservative Western part of the state, which made up 19% of the vote, Huckabee won overwhelmingly 66-25. But in the Southeastern part of the state, another conservative enclave, McCain eked out a 49-43 victory. - BLAKE DVORAK
7:11PM - The GOP exit polls in Virginia show McCain winning the three most populous areas of the state: Northern Virginia, Southeastern (Norfolk, Virginia Beach), and the Richmond area. Huckabee carried 51% of conservatives, while McCain took 67% of moderate voters. Huckabee won 58% of born-again Evangelical Christians, and 52% of those who think abortion should be illegal. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
7:10PM - Assuming Obama's margins in Virginia will be similar to those in Maryland and the District this evening, virtually every news agency will put Obama well ahead of Clinton tomorrow in counts of pledged delegates and super delegates. Obama already leads by 6 delegates in the latest RCP count, not including Virginia, though some other counts still have Clinton ahead. - REID WILSON
7:06PM - More on Obama's win from the VA exits. Clinton won white Democrats (42% of electorate) by 18 points, 59 to 41, Obama won black Democrats (24% of electorate) 89 to 11. Crossover Republicans were 8 percent of the vote today, Obama won them 70 to 26. - TOM BEVAN
7:02PM - MSNBC characterizes Obama's performance in Virginia as a "substantial" win, while McCain and Huckabee are still running neck and neck. Obama won overwhelming margins in Northern and Southeastern Virginia, as well as in the Richmond area, while Clinton won the more conservative but smaller Western portion of Virginia. - REID WILSON
7:00PM - Instant call for Obama in Virginia by FOX, CNN and MSNBC. GOP race too close to call. - TOM BEVAN
6:50PM - Polls in Virginia close in 10 minutes. Virginia should be the most interesting contest on both sides. If Huckabee is going to pull off an upset, this would be the place, and with 63 delegates at stake in a winner take all contest, it would be another big win for him. - TOM BEVAN
6:47PM - Voters in Arlington, Va., a heavily-Democratic county located just across the Potomac from D.C., told me long lines began early as polls opened at 6 a.m. Expect heavy turnout in this area of the state; we shall see which Democratic candidate that helps most. - KYLE TRYGSTAD
6:42PM - The Clinton campaign appears to be bracing for another rough night. It's hard to imagine, especially in the current media environment, that she could go winless for what amounts to an entire month. - TOM BEVAN
6:35PM - Geraghty has an exit peek of the GOP race in Maryland: McCain 57, Huckabee 31. - TOM BEVAN

