California: McCain's Secret Delegate Stash
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Media spin of the GOP race has focused on Hucakbee's Southern surge and the division among conservatives. But like that old adage "what you see depends on where you stand," what you spin depends on when you go to bed. Overnight, McCain's California victory turned into a delegate tsunami as he carried virtually every region of the state.
As of 2:30 pm Eastern time, with almost all precincts reporting, the Secretary of State's website shows McCain leading in 50 of California's 53 Congressional Districts -- a result that would give him 161 of the 170 delegates at stake in Tuesday's primary.
The AP and other delegate counts circulating this morning do not account for this, awarding McCain less than 60 so far. This means that McCain has between 80 (in a worst case) and 100 MORE delegates firmly in his camp than is currently being reported.
McCain's California dominance was overwhelming. He carried the notably moderate Bay Area and Coastal CDs (1, 5-17, 23) by huge margins, between 10 and 20+ points. He carried the largely minority districts in Los Angeles County (CDs 31-35, 37-8) by similarly wide margins. This was expected going into the evening.
But surprisingly, McCain also swept the conservative California heartlands of central California and the middle-class sections of Los Angeles and Orange Counties. He even leads in the middle-class neighborhoods of the fast-growing Inland Empire (San Bernardino and Riverside counties) that together are now a third larger than conservative hotbed Orange County.
His margins here are closer, and as late-reporting precincts and absentees come in, a few districts might still flip to Mitt. But the closest seats are not all that close. McCain is ahead in seven CDs by 2-3% (2-4, 19, 22, 40 and 44). With all precincts reporting, it will be very hard for Romney to overcome those margins. Substantial numbers of precincts are still out in four districts in the Inland Empire and Los Angeles Counties (25, 26, 41, and 43) but McCain's lead is less than 5 percent in only the 25th.
Late returns or absentees could flip CDs 42, 48 and 50 -- all wealthy Orange or San Diego County seats -- to Mitt, as McCain leads by less than two points in each. But only the 42d, where 3% of the precincts are out and McCain leads by 146 votes -- offers Romney a real chance of victory.
The implications of this victory are clear. McCain went into the conservative heartland of California and came out on top.
Henry Olsen is a Vice President at the American Enterprise Institute where he directs the National Research Initiative. His views and analysis are solely his own.

