Is it the year of the underdog? If the New York Giants can beat the "inevitable" New England Patriots and stop their march into history, as they did in dramatic fashion last night, maybe Barack Obama can pull off the upset against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination after all.

It's not really a fair comparison, since Obama is less of an underdog heading into tomorrow than the Giants were last night. Still, as recently as ten days ago Clinton was holding significant leads in many Super Tuesday states, including the crown jewel: California.

Not any more. Obama has erased Clinton's lead in California over the past 3 days and is now tied. More importantly, he's trending positive heading into Tuesday while Clinton is sliding.

Yet, even if we assume Obama pulls off a narrow win in California, splitting the delegates his way slightly better than 50/50, where does he win enough delegates to take the lead from Clinton?

Here's the problem: in the five biggest remaining delegate states on Tuesday, Clinton holds big leads in three: New York (281), New Jersey (127) and Massachusetts (121). Obama holds big leads in two: Illinois (185), and Georgia (103).

If the polls hold, then Clinton will win a majority of the 529 delegates in NY, NJ and MA, while Obama will do the same for the 188 delegates in IL and GA. The math does not work in his favor.

Looking down the rest of other Super Tuesday states, they all appear pretty darn close. If there's a late break toward Obama, he can probably carry a number of them, which may help him close the gap with Clinton.

Unlike the Superbowl, where a closely matched contest still gave us a definite winner with confetti and a trophy, Tuesday's match up is unlikely to settle anything. Clinton may still be able to claim herself the delegate leader and perhaps even trumpet the fact she won a plurality of contests around the country, but Obama may be able to point to victories in places like California, Colorado, Illinois, Georgia, Alabama and Connecticut and continue to argue that he has broader national appeal and is more electable than his rival.