California Questions

California is the big enchilada for both sides on Tuesday, but there are a couple of interesting questions that could make for an unpredictable result - particularly in the Republican contest.

1) Early voting. Election officials in California estimate something approaching half the state's ballots will be cast before the primary on Tuesday. Of those 2.3 million people who voted early, how many Democrats cast a vote for Edwards and how many cast a vote for Giuliani (or Thompson), and who does that help or hurt?

2) Democrats allocate their delegates proportionally, but Republicans allocate them winner take all by Congressional district. So each of California's 53 districts, irrespective of its partisan composition, awards three delegates to the winner. That means heavily Democratic districts in the San Francisco Bay area with very few Republicans will matter just as much, in terms of delegate allocation, as heavily Republican districts in Orange County. So, depending on how the relatively small number Republicans in heavily Democratic districts vote, the delegate result could be vastly skewed from the popular vote total on Tuesday night.



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