More videos, including Hillary's "victory" speech, in the Vlog.

FT. LAUDERDALE, FL - Let's start with the Democrats, because as consequential as the Republican outcome was last night, the race on the Democratic side had consequences as well.

Bill Bennett called it an ambush. I'd characterize it as an old fashioned mugging. Clinton came into Florida last night and gave what amounted to a victory speech, the first portion of which was carried live by all the cable networks. The front page of this morning's Miami Herald provides another indicator of last night's vote: under a banner headline "A Florida Boost," the paper gives equal billing to both the GOP and Democratic contests, with side by side pictures of John McCain and Hillary Clinton smiling and waving to supporters. The subhead just above Clinton's picture -- "Clinton dominates Obama and takes bragging rights heading into Super Tuesday" -- makes only the vaguest possible reference to the fact that the contest was meaningless for Democrats.

The Washington Post's treatment of yesterday's results is vastly more fair, and the New York Times doesn't mention Clinton at all on its front page, instead focusing extra attention on Giuliani's humiliating defeat.

So, obviously, the media's handling of the Democratic results in Florida is far from uniform, but to the extent the idea that she scored a meaningful victory here enters the consciousness of the Democratic electorate at all in upcoming February 5th states, it works to her advantage. Her campaign is smart to try and wring whatever positive spin it can out of Florida, even though in doing so they're being accused of violating the spirit of the pledge signed by all the Democratic candidates. But these are the Clintons, after all, and this ain't beanbag. Obama should have seen the mugging coming.

Turning to the Republicans, it seems to me it's hard to overstate how important of a victory it was for McCain. He accomplished three things of significance:

1) He beat Romney handily in a closed Republican primary. Despite losing self-identified conservatives 40 to 27, McCain ran better than Romney with large swaths of Republican voters across the state.

2) He knocked Giuliani out of the race and, better yet, will pick up his endorsement today. That puts McCain in the driver's seat to win the 201 winner take all delegates up for grabs in the Northeast on Tsunami Tuesday. Add 57 delegates he won last night, the 54 more he will get from winning Arizona on Tuesday, and the delegates he already had from New Hampshire and South Carolina, and McCain is already more than a third of the way to the magic number, not counting California and Illinois, where he already leads in the polls.

3) He has put enormous pressure on Romney's biggest asset: his pocketbook. Romney has already spent something like $17 million of his own money during the first 9 months of 2007. His FEC reports for Q4 2007 will come out tomorrow, and it's rumored the filing will show him spending perhaps as much as additional $25-30 million in the final quarter of last year, putting him close to $50 million thus far. To compete seriously on February 5th and to overcome, or at least try and neutralize McCain's momentum coming out of Florida, Romney is going to have to make another big financial commitment. Given he's currently at a disadvantage in the race, is Romney willing to double down and pull the trigger on putting in another $35-50 million to try and extend the contest? I guess we'll know the answer soon enough.

As the contest moves on and shifts focus, one thing is for sure: the race in Florida was everything it was advertised to be.

Pundits will spend the next few days analyzing what went wrong for Rudy Giuliani. And, it's true that he probably had the wrong strategy, the wrong ads, and stressed the wrong issues.

But the main reason he lost is pretty simple. He was from New York.

New York, of course, is the media capital and pundits there always think that the country thinks like they do and is waiting for one of their own, so to speak, to take up the mantle of leadership. But events keep indicating otherwise. It's true that Americans once turned to New York for their presidents -- but the last time was in 1944, when both nominees were from New York and Roosevelt campaigned triumphantly that October in the city that never sleeps.

But ever since, whether the name is Rockefeller, Lindsay, or Cuomo (who had the good sense not even to attempt a candidacy), New Yorkers have always ended up doing worse than expected in their quests for the presidency. It shouldn't be a surprise. True, Americans now have an enormous amount of respect and empathy for New Yorkers, particularly after 9/11. But they still don't think that New Yorkers particularly share their mores and values. Most Americans, after all, don't live in cities on the New York model any longer and would never consider doing so -- a fact that the current occupant of Gracie Mansion ought to consider before he coughs up a couple of hundred million in yet another fruitless quest. (Hillary, of course, is a carpetbagger, so she gets a pass on this issue, as did Nixon in '68.)

So, just like those who came before him. Giuliani has had to face a sad truth of presidential politics. Americans think New York is a nice place to visit. But they really don't want a president who lives there.

To read Steven Stark's complete "Presidential Tote Board" blog, go to www.thephoenix.com/toteboard/

On this day in 1835 President Andrew Jackson survives an assassination attempt on his life which occurred, amazingly enough, in the House chamber. On to today's top stories:

"McCain Wins Florida, Becomes Frontrunner" (Jackie Calmes, Wall Street Journal) Too soon to put the frontrunner label on a GOP candidate yet? Not anymore. John McCain's Florida victory puts to rest notions that his earlier victories came about due not to Republican support but independent support. McCain pulled together a solid coalition of (moderate) conservatives, veterans, seniors, Hispanics, and economic conservatives to thoroughly scare the Romney camp.

"Rudy Defeat Marks End of 9/11 Politics" (Ben Smith and David Paul Kuhn, The Politico) While reporters Smith and Kuhn might be a little too harsh in their analysis, they are correct that Rudy Giuliani's "9/11 Message" fell on deaf ears. Whether that's because of "9/11 fatigue," we should remember that Rudy fell back on 9/11 heavily after he started dropping in the polls. Before that, Rudy ran on his record of mayor pre-9/11, but with 9/11 of course always near to that message. Whatever the case, the rise and fall of Rudy will be analyzed for years to come.

"For McCain, Momentum That May Be Hard to Stop" (Dan Balz, Washington Post) It wasn't so long ago that the words "brokered convention" were being uttered wistfully by many a pundit. Things look much differently this morning as we now look at a political landscape that seems to heavily favor McCain over Romney. McCain will certainly receive a bump for his Florida victory, which, despite Romney's vast resources, might lead him to the nomination on Feb. 5.

"Will Florida Victory Matter for Clinton?" (Lesley Clark, Miami Herald) Hillary's "victory" celebration last night in Florida at times looked more like a therapy session, as Clinton and her supporters sought to heal their South Carolina wounds. Depending on how the Clinton and Obama campaigns play Florida in the run-up to Feb. 5 would go a long way toward whether it matters for Clinton.

"Obama Cuts Rezko Ties" (Chris Fusco and Tim Novak, Chicago Sun-Times) In an attempt to finally cut all ties to Tony Rezko, Obama announced Tuesday night that he's giving back the rest of the donations that have any connection to the indicted businessman. That amounts to $72,650, bringing the total Obama is giving away to $157,835. Will we hear about any of this at Thursday's debate? Or does that close the matter?

"Schwarzenegger Praises McCain and Obama" (Carla Marinucci, San Francisco Chronicle) Now that the early primary states are out of the way, the campaign moves into the Governator's back yard, which, incidentally, is also part of the Kennedy back yard, from the Shriver side. Arnold hasn't endorsed anyone, but it's no secret he favors McCain's style of politics.

"Lieberman Rules Out Running With McCain" (Andrew Miga, Associated Press) A McCain-Lieberman ticket has been one of those fanciful "what-ifs" ever since the Connecticut Democrat-turned-Independent came on board the campaign. But with his recent denial -- "I'd tell him, 'Thanks, John, I've been there, I've done that. You can find much better,'" -- Lieberman is trying to end those rumors. For now at least.

"Talk Radio Impugns McCain's Liberal Record" (Donald Lambro, Washington Times) For Ditto-heads everywhere, last night was a tough one to swallow. Rush Limbaugh, along with a cohort of other influential conservative radio hosts, make no secret of their disdain for John McCain. But with a McCain nomination looking ever more likely, will the Ditto-heads try to find common ground?

"Double Wins Put Crist in Control" (Steve Bousquet, St. Petersburg Times) A potential VP candidate, Fla. Gov. Charlie Crist bet on McCain and won big time. The question now is whether Crist's "kingmaker" status elevates his own political ambitions.

Get today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.

John McCain won Florida by putting together the same basic voting coalition he forged in New Hampshire and South Carolina. What is impressive is that he did it in a closed primary. Registered Independents and Democrats were not allowed to vote, but McCain still won. Let's take a look at how he did it:

-McCain once again won those who are disenchanted by the Bush presidency. Most Florida Republicans (68%) approve of the Bush administration. Romney won them, 35% to 31%. McCain, however, scored an overwhelming, 22-point victory among the 32% of voters who disapprove. I think this is one of the evolving stories of the Republican contest. If you like Bush, you are inclined to Romney (or one of the other candidates, all of whom but Ron Paul do better among Bush supporters than Bush opponents). If you dislike Bush, you are inclined to McCain.

(more...)

9:53PM - Add Senator Mel Martinez to the list of winners tonight. He looks a lot better backing a winning presidential candidate than he does stepping down prematurely as chair of the RNC. - REID WILSON

9:46PM - The other big winner tonight? Gov. Charlie Crist. From the St. Petersburg Times today on the Crist endorsement: "For Crist, the move is a risky one, but one with a big payoff if it makes him look like a kingmaker." - BLAKE DVORAK

9:42PM - Giuliani dropping out helps McCain, right? Well, not so fast. According to the exit polls, 49% of those who voted for Rudy today picked Mitt Romney as their 2nd choice while 44% picked McCain. And, interestingly, those who voted for Huckabee overwhelmingly picked McCain as their top 2nd choice over Mitt Romney, 54% to 32%. - TOM BEVAN

9:30PM - Rudy Giuliani, in his concession (withdrawal?) speech, calls the GOP the "Party of Bush." Those thumping sounds you just heard were NRCC chair Tom Cole and NRSC chair John Ensign bashing their heads against walls in frustration. - REID WILSON

9:12PM - Fox News and AP call for McCain. It makes sense. Like I said - if Romney is losing Tampa, is in a tie in Orlando, and getting trounced in Miami - there just are not enough Floridians for him to make up the difference. - JAY COST

9:10PM - A Mitt Romney spokesman tells RCP that the campaign has still not made a decision about television advertising in February 5 states. With six days to go until polls open, isn't that something he ought to take care of? We wonder, how damaging is a Florida loss to Romney? Has Romney held off on investing more in his campaign because he's re-evaluating, like he did before his Michigan win, and wondering whether the campaign is still worth it? - REID WILSON

9:07PM - And what of metro Miami?

Broward County: 38% in, McCain +7,762 over Romney
Miami-Dade County: 31% in, McCain + 26,968 votes over Romney (who is in third)
Palm Beach County: "0%" Reporting, McCain +2,852 over Romney

Total: McCain NET 27,582 out of votes cast 156,926, or a 17.5% lead.

I just don't see how Romney can find the votes in the panhandle to make up the difference. A split in Orlando, a slight lead in Tampa for McCain, a big lead in Miami for McCain. Where are the votes for Romney? - JAY COST

9:02PM - Huckabee just finished speaking in Missour-ah. He's not dropping out. - TOM BEVAN

8:54PM - And what of metro Tampa?

Hernando County 78% in, McCain +1,290
Hillsborough County 24% in, McCain +2,490
Pasco County 94% in, McCain +3,361
Pinellas County 18% in, McCain +2,685

Total: McCain NET 9,826 out of votes cast 144,232

That's a 6 point lead. My feeling at this point is that it would be very hard for ROmney to lose Tampa, lose Miami, tie Orlando, and still win the state. - JAY COST

8:53PM - An hour and a half after polls in Miami-Dade County closed, just 7% of precincts are reporting results. As we wrote this morning, Miami-Dade is historically late to report, meaning John McCain's lead there -- a 9-point margin at this point -- could boost his numbers throughout the night. Combine that with a stronger than average Huckabee showing in the Panhandle, and McCain looks stronger as the night goes on. - REID WILSON

8:48PM Hmm, what do you know? Hillary is giving something that looks awfully like a victory speech that is getting play on all the cable nets. - TOM BEVAN

8:40PM - Interesting results coming out of metro Orlando.

Lake County: 0% in, Romney +412 votes
Osceola County: 87% in, McCain +21 votes (no, that is not a typo)
Orange County: 91% in, Romney +19 votes (neither is that)
Seminole County: 70% in, Romney +1,337 votes
NET: Romney +1,789 votes OUT OF 120,000 total votes.

That's called a tie! - JAY COST

8:35PM - Halperin reporting Giuliani will drop out and endorse McCain as early as tomorrow in California. If McCain wins tonight, Giuliani's endorsement could be the clincher. - TOM BEVAN

8:31 - As Samuel L. Jackson once famously said - "Hold onto your butts!" Broward (est. pop. 1.8 million) and Miami-Dade (est. pop. 2.4 million) are beginning to report. They could very well overwhelm the current numbers. With 7% in, Miami-Dade is going 44% for McCain, 35% for Giuliani, 12% for Romney. 4% in from Broward, and it's 38% for McCain, 25% for Giuliani, and 22% for Romney. Still no word yet from Palm Beach. JAY COST

8:29PM - Six counties to watch tonight: In Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes and Washington counties, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are fighting over evangelicals in the Panhandle, while John McCain is counting on a big tunrout among veterans. If Huckabee scores well enough to seriously affect Romney's totals, McCain will have a good night. - REID WILSON

8:28PM - According to the CNN exits, Cubans comprised only 6% of the vote thus far (1,505 respondents) went 50% for McCain versus 34% for Giuliani, and only 10% for Romney. - TOM BEVAN

8:24PM - Brit Hume just announced the final FOX exits: McCain 34; Romney 31. - BLAKE DVORAK

8:06PM - CNN called the race for Clinton. - TOM BEVAN

8:03PM - More exits: Conservatives - Romney 40, McCain 27, Huckabee 15, Giuliani 13. Evangelicals - Romney 34, McCain 28, Huckabee 28. - TOM BEVAN

7:54PM - Another interesting note from metro Tampa. With 77% of precincts reporting in Pasco County, John McCain has a 2,800 vote lead. There is still an insignificant number of precincts from the other metro Tampa counties, but this is an intriguing early result. - JAY COST

7:52PM - AP's Charles Babington reports John Edwards has canceled two campaign trips to Alabama and North Dakota to make a major speech on poverty from New Orleans. That's the city in which Edwards kicked off his campaign in December, 2006. Advisers said Edwards does not plan to pull out of the race, but others close to the campaign, Babington writes, were surprised by the move. The campaign insisted Edwards would be at the Democratic debate in Los Angeles on Thursday. - REID WILSON

7:40 PM - The early returns are just that: early. But one poing of interest. With 91% of precincts reporting in Manatee County, McCain holds a slight lead over Mitt Romney, 35% to 34%. Manatee County is just south of Tampa, and is home to Bradenton (where the perpetually anemic Pittsburgh Pirates have their spring training). This is tight. It is consistent with the pre-election polling I have seen - so that is a testament to just how tight this race will be. As a point of comparison, Bush won Florida by a much improved margin in 2004 in part because of his strong showing in greater Tampa. To that point, Hillsborough has not yet reported very many returns. - JAY COST

7:39PM - The Obama camp has sent out this email: "Based on exit polling data our campaign is prepared to call the delegate count at 7 pm eastern." - BLAKE DVORAK

7:32PM - With Rudy Giuliani facing what increasingly looks like the end of his campaign, many supporters seem set to join another campaign. A fundraiser close to the Giuliani campaign tells RCP that at least six New Jersey county chairs for the former Mayor ready to jump to the McCain team, though they will wait until Giuliani drops his bid. A McCain win in New Jersey, which earlier this year changed their rules to award all the state's delegates to the primary winner, would push him that much closer to the nomination. Perhaps better for the Senator, fundraisers headed his way could help refill what are said to be empty coffers. - REID WILSON

7:25PM - Incidentally, Hillary Clinton's "victory" "thank you" rally in Davie, Florida was set to kick off about 25 minutes ago. She's at 58% of the vote right now - with less than 1% reporting, of course - TOM BEVAN

7:10PM More from Fox News exits:

* 43% voters say Crist endorsement important, 51% voted for McCain.
* Late deciders 36% McCain, 37% Romney
* Experience: 38% McCain, 38% Romney
* Seniors and Hispanics going for McCain by double digits.

I'm also hearing Fox is reporting McCain is beating Romney by 4% among voters who said the economy was the most important issue to them. UPDATE: Here's the link. That makes things very interesting. - TOM BEVAN

7:04PM As Tom notes below, the early exits look like very good signs for Mitt Romney: Lots of Florida Republicans said they care most about the economy, Cuban turnout might be lower than the 17% expected, and only 3 in ten said they're moderates. But the exits also show McCain up slightly. With so many self-described conservatives in the race, does that mean McCain mended just enough fences with the base to squeak by? - REID WILSON

6:52PM If the exits hold Giuliani is toast. Will he drop out? I think so. It's either that or face the prospect of a humiliating defeat in his home state six days later. I don't think Rudy will put himself through that. - TOM BEVAN

6:46PM In non-Florida news, another member of Congress is calling it quits. Kentucky Republican Ron Lewis is hanging up his voting card after seven full terms in the House representing the Owensboro-based district south of Louisville. Two Republicans and two Democrats face off in the May 20 primary. The district is solidly Republican -- President Bush won with 65% and 62% in 2004 and 2000 -- but it's voted Democratic in the past and gave Lewis just 55% last year. Check Politics Nation tomorrow for more on the seat. - REID WILSON

6:32PM The Romney folks should like the quick take on the exits:

*Nearly half of Florida Republican primary voters said the economy is the most important issue facing the country. Terrorism, Iraq and immigration each were picked by fewer than two in 10.

*Eight in 10 Republican primary voters were white and a little more than one in 10 were Hispanic - about half of whom were of Cuban heritage.

*About three in 10 Republican voters called themselves moderates.

- TOM BEVAN

6:24PM Turnout appears strong, the question is whether that benefits one candidate more than the other. You could argue it either way, I suppose, but to the extent the ballot initiatives (property tax relief and slots in Miami-Dade) draws out voters who aren't conservative ideologues, high turnout might seem to benefit John McCain slightly. - TOM BEVAN

6:20PM A note on the exit polls: While early voting has been open for weeks, the consotrium has been polling early voters for weeks, NBC's First Read points out. They've weighted the numbers, so when Panhandle polling stations close at 8 pm Eastern, the nets won't be delayed. If there is a call to be made, they will make it. Early votes, by the way, should favor Giuliani, as should some counties that always report first. Watch for Giuliani's numbers to start high and slump throughout the night. - REID WILSON

6:17PM - Some polls close in 45 minutes, but results won't be know until the rest in the Panhandle close at 8pm eastern, at which point you can start seeing them tabulated here. - TOM BEVAN

6:15PM Apparently El Rushbo encountered a glitch voting in Palm Beach County. - TOM BEVAN

6:10PM Some voters got a last minute robo call from Charlie Crist today. - TOM BEVAN

6:08PM Geraghty has latest wave of exits: McCain 34.3 percent, Romney 32.6 percent, Giuliani 15.3 percent, Huckabee 12 percent. Still a long way to go. - TOM BEVAN

6:06PM Here we go. A general look from AP exits here. - TOM BEVAN

Check in often tonight as the RCP Blog team will be bringing you the latest election updates and analysis.

With just a few hours before the polls close, the GOP candidates made their final pitches to Florida voters.

Reid Wilson wonders, "Is Florida Crucial to Romney?"

I think we can answer yes when the same question is applied to Rudy.

The House has passed the $146 billion stimulus package.

Did Obama snub Hillary at last night's State of the Union? Not according to him.

Via Ben Smith, Obama has raised $5 million since his South Carolina victory on Saturday.

Guess who Bill Clinton didn't mention while in New Jersey today.

Nancy Pelosi was "mesmerized" by the Kennedy-Obama mantle transferring yesterday.

Harry Truman's daughter, Margaret, died today in Chicago at 83.

If you ever thought to yourself, "Gee, I wonder what Hillary tries to do everyday," well, then, here you go:

Meanwhile, here's Obama's new ad, featuring North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad:

Those two ads, by the way, are running in Feb. 5 states. The Republican candidates, however, apparently haven't run any.

The following is an email I received last week from a Romney supporter:

How do you call McCain the front runner when Mitt Romney has more delegates and has won more republican votes in all the primaries?

That's a good question, one that several emailers have asked me. To be fair, I have been very cautious in my approach to McCain's candidacy. I think he faces some serious opposition in the Republican Party. Unlike previous nominees, McCain is not a consensus candidate. Instead, he has inspired a faction of the party to oppose him. And in a system like ours, factions are often able to prevent things from happening. So, they might be able to stop him.

Beyond this, I think the emailer asks a fair question. After all, this is a race to win a party nomination. This means it is about delegates. So, shouldn't they be our focus? Aren't we wrong to focus so relentlessly on who has won which states? Doesn't that obscure the true dynamics of this race?

(more...)

The Orlando Sentinel is reporting that there were problems at precinct 145 in Hunter's Creek where the poll workers told voters asking for a Democratic ballot that the Democratic primary wasn't until March:

Sheneka McDonald spent 10 minutes trying to convince poll workers at the same precinct that she should have a Democratic ballot. She questioned poll workers when she was handed a Republican ballot but was told, "this is the only ballot we have."

"I said, 'How can this be the only ballot,'" McDonald recalled. "That's when the guy chimed in from the back and said the Democratic primary was in March."

Great moments in precinct history.

Elsewhere, the Sentinel reports:

Election officials noticed a four-vote discrepancy between the number of ballots signed for and the number of ballots cast at the Daytona Beach City Island early voting site. The vote count came up one vote shy on Jan. 23 and three votes shy on Jan. 26, McFall said.

The county's elections canvassing board decided Tuesday to re-feed the ballots from the City Island location. The process turned up the four lost ballots.

"Apparently the machine failed to count the four votes the first time," McFall said.

The glitch shouldn't be cause for concern, she said.

Here we go.

Gay-rights activists are upset over a McCain robo-call campaign attacking Romney. Here's the relevant portion of the call:

"Mitt Romney thinks he can fool us. He supported abortion on demand, even allowed a law mandating taxpayer-funding for abortion. He says he changed his mind, but he still hasn't changed the law. He told gay organizers in Massachusetts he would be a stronger advocate for special rights than even Ted Kennedy. Now, it's something different."

That last part is what has so angered gay-rights groups, and, according to Marc Ambinder, the campaign has pulled it as a result.