COCONUT GROVE - If Rudy Giuliani finishes a distant third in Florida on Tuesday, as the polls suggest, it gives John McCain the inside track to rack up a number of delegates in important winner take all states in the Northeast.

Giuliani has already fallen behind McCain in New York (101 delegates), New Jersey (52 delegates), Connecticut (30 delegates), and probably Delaware (18 delegates) as well.

That totals 201 delegates. If we assume McCain can hold his home state of Arizona, also a winner take all state, his take goes up to 254.

Add in the 36 delegates McCain already holds and he's at 290. As you look at the two other biggest prizes on Feb 5th outside of the South, California (173 delegates) and Illinois (70 delegates) neither of which are winner take all, McCain holds decent but not insurmountable leads in both states. Barring some unexpected event, McCain can expect to win at least a portion of those delegates.

This is why Romney is probably more in need of a win on Tuesday than McCain. But Romney also has advantages moving forward. He continues to rise in the national polls, and many of the upcoming contests are closed to Independents and Democrats. His biggest advantage, of course, is money.

If Romney wins Florida, he will not only get a significant amount of free media, but he'll be able to enhance his standing in California and other key states with paid media that McCain will simply not be able to match. The longer the contest gets extended, the more Romney's personal wealth will come to bear on the contest and perhaps be enough to put him over the top.