Guess who's back? Ann Selzer, the only pollster who correctly predicted the massive turnout and nailed the outcome of the Iowa caucuses in her final survey for the Des Moines Register, now shows Mitt Romney leading John McCain by 5 points in her latest survey in Michigan for the Detroit Free-Press.

Selzer conducted polling for the Detroit Free-Press for the first time in 2006 and the results were equally impressive: Selzer's final poll had incumbent Democrat Jennifer Granholm beating Republican Dick DeVos by 13 points, 54 to 41. The final vote tally was Granholm 56, DeVos 42.

(I should note here that Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon also had Granholm winning by 14 points in his final poll of 2006, 52 to 38. Coker also has Mitt Romney leading John McCain by 8 points in his final survey of Michigan released this morning).

I spoke to Selzer briefly on Friday (before the Free-Press survey) and asked her how it was that she was able to see something in Iowa that other pollsters - and even the campaigns themselves - clearly missed.

"Our success was in keeping our hands off the data and not presuming ahead of time what we thought would happen," Selzer said.

Selzer noted that while some pollsters use modeling and weight results by party identification to try and better project the composition of the electorate, she does not. She said her secret is not to "mess with the data" and not to approach a survey with any preconceived notions about what voters think or what they might do.

"Once you start doing that," Selzer says, referring to such methods as weighting, "you're saying you know better than your data. You get results that look like the pollster's brain rather than a cross section of caucus goers." Selzer added there's "an arrogance factor" that accompanies methods like weighting which make assumptions about who will go to the polls and how they will vote.

So what advice does Selzer have for pollsters as we move through what appears to be a fluid election characterized by massive voter engagement? "Trust your data," she says."Build a methodology that you trust and get yourself out of the equation."

Selzer's methodology will again be put to the test on Tuesday in Michigan, where she says the dynamics of this year's race are "even quirkier than Iowa." Still, the Romney camp has to be invigorated by the result of the Free-Press survey, because these days it's extremely difficult to bet against Ann Selzer.

--------------------------------------------
Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.
--------------------------------------------